Hi Didier, #2 was meant to reflect the impact of #1..... Sanctions make it even harder to get the necessary supplies, proactive and reactive.

since we've all been so serious and many of us are stuck inside (hence my activity on LQ lately LOL):
Remember to wash your hands, trust me and watch it: https://www.reddit.com/r/aww/comment..._covid19_time/
then view the main subreddit... https://www.reddit.com/r/aww/

Yes.

With all due and sincere respect, ChuangTzu, you side-stepped my response effectively missing and/or obfuscating the point by interjecting politics. I only chose Iran because what little info gets out past the oppressive gag orders are from health officials who risk their lives by speaking out in addition to the threat from the virus itself. Additionally they are yet another example of a country that chose to "tilt at political windmills" and underestimate the actual threat.

You continue to attempt to characterize COVID-19 as "just another common flu" and that is mistaken and reckless, IMHO. Do you actually recall, and can you post them if you do, any flu event in recent history that...

1) Spread as exponentially as COVID-19
2) Resulted in as many deaths/per million inhabitants (full population, independent of any category)
3) Overwhelmed every country's health care system within a few weeks of the first infection within that country

I urge you, if you haven't already, click here (reprinted from above) https://www.statista.com/topics/6061...d-19-in-italy/ as it has a wealth of statistics for the whole world and broken down to include economic and other tangential effects.

enorbet, watch the video I posted a few pages ago from the well known German physician regarding coronavirus.

You might want to review my prior posts....

PS: I did review the site it has similar data as other sites, Johns Hopkins University, WHO, CDC etc...
One thing the data shows is that the virus is not spreading uncontrollably, almost 4 months in and the global number of confirmed infected is 382,000+ or .005% of the global population (7.6 billion). The life cycle for the virus appears to be 6-8 weeks with the peak occurring somewhere around 3-4 weeks.

Hello.....hello.....ello....lo....lo....o

I think you should adjust your priors. A change of x10 as more data comes in seems fairly plausible to me. Another example, looking at some stats list in https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK has 8077 reported cases and 422 reported deaths -> 5.2%
Germany has 32986 reported cases and 157 reported deaths -> 0.5%

I haven't heard that the UK hospitals have collapsed yet, so I would venture that the apparent huge difference in fatality rate is due to the fact that the Germans are testing much more aggressively (and therefore have found more of their actual cases).

On what basis do you decide to attribute the life cycle to the virus, instead of the response of humans to the virus (quarantine, lockdown, etc)?

That cuts both ways.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2152V0

Great points and question: It is my understanding that its a combination of clinical controlled observation of the pathogen and collected data from least human input (lowest response rate) to the highest human input (countries with the largest response rate/measures), then an aggregate of those numbers off set by the clinical controlled observation. In other words, when nothing is done and the pathogen cannot reproduce x happens, when an area has the least response/measures x happens, when an area has the highest response/measures taken x happens. Then it gets compared to historical data of similar pathogens/pandemics etc... This is a decent overview: https://courses.lumenlearning.com/mi...al-life-cycle/
and https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guide...fcw/revision/1

Erring on the side of caution with any virus including the flu. A good lesson for everyone is that we need to take all illnesses more seriously and have better preventative measures in place. It is astounding the number of people, especially men, who don't wash their hands after using the toilet/urinal in public restrooms/loo. If that is an indication of overall behaviour then we see how much education is needed for improve overall public health.

Iran has all they need since they can bypass any of the restrictions and medical was never one of the restrictions so the only part I'll agree to is this. " 3) dangers of living in a country with an oppressive regime. " Can we trust their data any more than China? Anywaysss...


"
Total cases: 44,183
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
"

Thats about 1.2 percent.

The transmission rate is supposed to be one person could infect 2-2.75 which isn't very high actually.

The statistics for 1918 Spanish flu in the US was 675,000 dead so we are a very long way from that right now.

No one has told my why the little bugger flicker children in the world seem to be so obviously missing from all the graphs. Sure 1 (one) teenager is in critical now. Out of the entire world. Why? Why? Why?

Hmmm, I'll point out that free movement in Australia is now restricted and there are a number of states we can not travel to. I don't think the federation is in any danger but state governments are reacting to unprecedented times.

I don't know what I'm doing that seems so unclear. Please allow me to try again.

I am recently NOT using reported cases/reported deaths to calculate percentages since testing is so spotty and subject to change. I have recently, if you read the posts you will see which applies, am using TOTAL population, healthy and sick, as compared to reported deaths due to COVID-19, since total population is fairly constant not being subject to either testing or reporting... or for that matter coverups or hysteria.

This should eliminate the huge shifts in percentages.

That's the theory. But practically that's not true, because companies are afraid to ship such goods to Iran, fearing economical sanctions from the USA for themselves. Further, the economical sanctions globally increased the poverty of ordinary people in Iran, making them less able to resist to the disease. I am not saying nor believe that's the root case of its spread in this country, but pretending that economical sanctions have no effect on that matter is inaccurate.

Further, probably Iran can bypass some of the restrictions, certainly not any. Looking at the evolution of their oil exports makes this pretty obvious, even assuming a few hidden ones.

Prince Charles has got it! And he's almost as old as I am, so technically he's high risk. Of course his mother is at even higher risk, being over 90. The last I heard, she was self-isolating, accompanied only by a maid and a footman plus two men to look after the horses.

It's nice to know we really are all in this together (for once).

There are now two different academic models for the spread of the virus in the UK, one from Imperial College and one from Oxford University. The IC model is the one the government are currently following. The Oxford model suggests that covid may have arrived here around two weeks earlier than we thought and was circulating in a mild form before the first death. If true, there would now be a much greater degree of herd immunity than we thought. It would certainly explain the sudden eruption of cases with no known links to anyone coming into the country from abroad.

Obviously the only way to distinguish these two models reliably is to have an blood antibody test that can be widely used. That's one of the things doctors are working on particularly now.

Huh?

I did say RECENTLY and added that you could tell from each post as I label them. Lighten up or read more carefully as I don't have any agenda in this since I'm pretty safe as isolated as I am. My only agenda, if one can call it that, is to help out by avoiding what should be the most obvious fact, that countries that underestimate COVID 19 are hit the hardest. Additionally I have tempered that with adding "don't panic, just be reasonable and careful", and that deserves a "huh?" C'mon man.