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Old 03-15-2020, 08:39 AM   #16
hazel
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What is worrying me much more than the virus is the economic outfall. Not that I will be particularly sorry if the airlines go bust. I haven't flown for years and I wouldn't now on principle. It's the one industry that can't be "greened". Cars can go electric, domestic gas boilers can be replaced by electric heat pumps, electricity can be made from wind power or small nuclear plants, ships with mechanically controlled sails already exist (they are not economically viable at the moment but could become so). But flying will always be a major polluter and carbon generator, so no regrets there!

But if the domestic economy folds everywhere with mass bankruptcies and people thrown out of work, it would take a long time to recover from that.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 08:57 AM   #17
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Here's a lovely one! I saw that "Isolation for the over-70s" was trending and of course I have an interest in that, so I clicked on it. And found: "Isolation on eBay -- fantastic prices on isolation"

You couldn't make it up!
 
Old 03-15-2020, 10:11 AM   #18
rokytnji
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Okey Dokey here.

My plans are jumping on the motorcycle. Sling a hammock at New Braunsfels Tx at the Giddyup run.

See if anyone else shows up or not.

I know Dean Koontz predicted this stuff back in 1981 in the book/tale "eyes of darkness"

Fears now locally with the red necks here that this is weaponized system gone amok. Thanks to internet.

Last edited by rokytnji; 03-15-2020 at 10:14 AM. Reason: spelling
 
Old 03-15-2020, 10:33 AM   #19
hazel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rokytnji View Post
Fears now locally with the red necks here that this is weaponized system gone amok. Thanks to internet.
Not very likely! If I wanted to create a bioweapon in the form of an infectious disease, I'd create one that killed most of the people it infected. What's the point otherwise? Covid-19 kills the old and the sick. Those are not the people you want your enemy to lose; you want them to lose strong healthy soldiers.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 10:51 AM   #20
enorbet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazel View Post
My God! This person should be in jail! He's obviously been boning up on Steven King's novel The Stand.
If those graphs are actually accurate I see no reason for castigation let alone jailing. He didn't recommend "find yourself a cave" let alone killing off all your neighbors to minimize contact after all.

It is important to realize Covid probably has more in common with HIV than with common annual flu virii. It is not trivial but it is also not cause for panic. I think his noting of why some areas have experienced exponential spread while others have leveled off is valuable data. Sure it is a worst case scenario but there is such a thing as prudence. For a time I lived in the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and every year many hurricanes would be in the news and almost every one would follow the thermals of the Gulf Stream and veer out to see somewhere around the islands to the SouthEast many of which were formed by hurricanes. So a kind of complacency exists there from so many "crying wolf" instances. Even when major hurricanes are approaching and evacuation is recommended some throw parties and others go surfing. The odds are actually with them as crazy as that may seem at first glance, but it only takes one to not veer NE with the Stream and these people will be dead or badly hurt. There is a highly developed area in this location called "Willoughby Spit" that was created exactly by one that didn't veer and instead dumped hundreds of thousands of tons of sand and debris and devastated more inland locations.

The value AND problem with statistics is that they deal with collectives, but you wouldn't care if the percentage of the collective was only 0.01% and it happened to you. For a sample of "you" the odds would be 100% .
 
Old 03-15-2020, 11:15 AM   #21
hazel
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A lot depends on how you measure infection rates and that varies from country to country. Some only count those who have been tested and found to have the virus in their swabs. Some count those who show symptoms and have been in contact with a known case. Some count anyone who has a cough and a fever.

Obviously, the more people you count as infected, the lower (proportionately) the death rate will be.

Moreover covid-19 has now been around for long enough for us to be able to see the shape of the epidemic. Infections rise to a peak and then gradually tail off, just like with flu. The earlier a country gets it, the earlier they peak. China peaked some time ago and now they have few new infections. Korea was next. Now it seems to have peaked in Lombardy. It's still rising in southern Italy but they will probably be the next. Then Spain. The peak in the UK will come much later because we started later.

Last edited by hazel; 03-15-2020 at 11:39 AM.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 12:18 PM   #22
enorbet
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Oh geez! Now that I'm seeing some crazy rumors spreading I'd better be clearer about an offhand remark in my above post so it isn't misconstrued. There are some minor similarities between Covid and HIV, and even to SARS, but the similarities are not as some like Alex Jones is claiming, "an uncanny resemblance". Additionally what similarities there are, are definitely not "inserted" (read: man-made). Not only are experts quite certain Covid is not man-made but they're are equally certain it came from some animal, quite possibly a strain of bat. Covid is absolutely NOT from some bioweapons lab for cryin' out loud.

You want some actual data? Here is some https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/ba...bioengineered/

TLDR - The similarity between Covid and both SARS and HIV is "like worms and people are similar". The tighter, false connection was due a few countries attempting to treat Covid with HIV medicines and of course those fear mongers who always look for some person/idealogy to blame.

Last edited by enorbet; 03-15-2020 at 12:22 PM.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 12:20 PM   #23
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My outlook/point of view

https://ibb.co/82THcn7

Last edited by rokytnji; 03-15-2020 at 12:22 PM.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 12:31 PM   #24
hazel
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Actually we know exactly where this virus comes from. It's practically identical to one found in pangolins (scaly anteaters), and that virus only differs in small respects from one found in horseshoe bats. The bat and pangolin versions are believed to have split apart about 29 years ago.

Pangolins are insectivorous. They live mainly on termites but also hunt for all manner of crawling insects in soil and litter. The floors of bat roosts are often crawling with cockroaches, so pangolins probably hunted there and picked up the virus from the bat faeces.

Then Chinese people picked up the pangolins because they regard pangolin scales as a medicine (don't ask me why). And, being thrifty folk, they ate the pangolins after descaling them. The epidemic started with people who had been to a bush meat market in Wuhan where pangolins were on sale. Enough said!
 
Old 03-15-2020, 01:43 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rokytnji View Post
My outlook/point of view

https://ibb.co/82THcn7
 
Old 03-15-2020, 02:04 PM   #26
teckk
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We have the first 2 cases seen in this county now where I live. A man drove up from Florida(USA) to see his 70 year old mother, gave it to her, she is in intensive care. Probably wasn't the best move for him to make.

Might be a good idea to take groceries to grandma, leave them on the porch and walk away. Let her come out and get them after a bit. You can be non symptomatic and still be a carrier.

There have been cases, according to the media, that have tested positive for the virus, quarantined, and never did show any symptoms.

There is another case where someone tested positive, was quarantined, no longer tested positive, then tested positive again 30 days later.
They don't know if that was a reinfection or if that was a false negative. Once you develop antibodies to a virus I would think that you would have some protection to a re exposure.

Anyway...wash your hands more often, don't pick your nose, or scratch at yourself with unclean hands.

As far as species crossing person to animal mutations, such as person infecting their dog, has anyone heard of that yet? H1N1 was one of those, from birds, it was thought, and Covid19 is animal to person virus mutation it is thought.
 
Old 03-15-2020, 08:09 PM   #27
frankbell
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Per the American Kennel Club, dogs are not subject to this strain of coronavirus, though they have long been subject to other strains.

In other news, we stopped by our local Aldi today. Just as in our other regular market, the "bathroom tissue" section was stripped bare.

In a long article on the virus, my local rag felt constrained to point out the following"

Quote:
But it’s not necessary to hoard items like toilet paper. This new virus doesn’t require any more TP than the old ones.

Last edited by frankbell; 03-15-2020 at 08:15 PM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 02:43 AM   #28
ondoho
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The TP thing really gets me.
It's like some sort of urban myth, a self-perpetuating rumour (aren't all rumours) that forces people to stock up on it only because others felt forced to stock up on it, no other reason. I refuse to take part in it (let's see how this pans out, maybe I'll really be using newspaper soon. Or water, like in India).

I bet soap isn't sold out
 
Old 03-16-2020, 03:14 AM   #29
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I’m a little irritated that this all hit just as we needed to purchase more TP, just normal restocking. Had we done so a couple of days earlier, we’d be good. Fortunately, we have more than a dozen boxes of Kleenex (“facial tissues”) on hand, so we’ll hopefully get by.
(sigh)
We do have lots of soap on hand, too.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 04:31 AM   #30
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Because we may have to self-isolate very soon (the age thing) I decided to try supermarket dekivery for the first time. The earliest time slot was a week on Wednesday! What's come over everyone?
Our news (BBC) reported that deaths from covid had doubled one day last week; what they meant was they'd risen by 10! No wonder a lot of people are panicing, I suppose.
 
  


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