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Old 03-25-2020, 08:21 AM   #181
SoftSprocket
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
"
Total cases: 44,183
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
"

The transmission rate is supposed to be one person could infect 2-2.75 which isn't very high actually.
If that is the infection rate then 44k infects 88k which infects 196k which infects 392k.

Now you have 720k. If the death rate stays the same as the reported numbers you have 8864 deaths from 4 iterations.

How many iterations do we see? How fast are the iterations? What numbers do we calculate with?

My observation is that in early stages the spread appears faster because testing is getting serious. The rate seems to flatten as a region gets serious about containment. Death rates go up as systems get overwhelmed and vulnerable populations become exposed.

If we don't isolate the iteration rate goes up. That seems fairly straight forward and is what has occurred in many countries leading to the belief that it will happen anywhere we don't isolate.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 10:25 AM   #182
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This might amuse some people. It might make others mad enough to have a heart attack, so I'm doing the PC thing and giving a filter warning. Don't click on the link if you cannot tolerate idiots. Because this woman makes Donald Trump look like Albert Einstein.

Last edited by hazel; 03-25-2020 at 11:42 AM.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 10:41 AM   #183
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Wash your hands after touching anything from Amazon.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/586612/...e-coronavirus/
 
Old 03-25-2020, 06:36 PM   #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enorbet View Post
I did say RECENTLY and added that you could tell from each post as I label them. Lighten up or read more carefully as I don't have any agenda in this since I'm pretty safe as isolated as I am. My only agenda, if one can call it that, is to help out by avoiding what should be the most obvious fact, that countries that underestimate COVID 19 are hit the hardest. Additionally I have tempered that with adding "don't panic, just be reasonable and careful", and that deserves a "huh?" C'mon man.
I wasn't accusing you of an "agenda". I was just confused about what you were trying to say (thanks for clarifying). I think everyone would agree with "don't panic" and "be reasonable and careful", though perhaps there is some disagreement on what those mean exactly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuangTzu View Post
In other words, when nothing is done and the pathogen cannot reproduce x happens, when an area has the least response/measures x happens, when an area has the highest response/measures taken x happens.
So I'm having trouble understanding your point. Do you think the virus "naturally" dimishes after 6-8 weeks, or you think the response (lock downs, etc) is responsible for that?

Quote:
Erring on the side of caution with any virus including the flu. A good lesson for everyone is that we need to take all illnesses more seriously and have better preventative measures in place. It is astounding the number of people, especially men, who don't wash their hands after using the toilet/urinal in public restrooms/loo. If that is an indication of overall behaviour then we see how much education is needed for improve overall public health.
I don't think you'll find anyone arguing against hand-washing, but as far as I understand, the primary mode of spread is breathing in water droplets exhaled by infected people.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 07:08 PM   #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
So I'm having trouble understanding your point. Do you think the virus "naturally" dimishes after 6-8 weeks, or you think the response (lock downs, etc) is responsible for that?
I thing ChuangTzu is still trying to argue "it's just another flu" which is opposed by every scientific paper I read or the Surgeon General or the CDC, but let's see how he responds

Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
I don't think you'll find anyone arguing against hand-washing, but as far as I understand, the primary mode of spread is breathing in water droplets exhaled by infected people.
The whole concept of washing hands as preventative for COVID-19 is that these droplets of moisture exhaled by infected hosts can live for hours to days depending on the surfaces upon which they land. Touching those surfaces and then contacting mucuous membranes (mouth, nose, eyes, etc.) with those unclean hands can infect us.

While washing hands after eliminating (urinating or defecating) isn't a bad idea it has zero to do with preventing almost any disease. Urine and feces are sterile when they first leave our bodies. Their danger is they are also full of nutrients for some animals and most smaller lifeforms including bacteria so they are like a lush garden, which is why such products are used as fertilizer. The idea of proper hygiene including washing after we do our toilets is "elevated" by old ideas and especially religions that consider those our "naughty parts" when actually those parts are vastly cleaner than our mouths and hands. We would actually do better to wash our hands before we do our toilet. However removing shoes is substantially better validated. It's just that placing them on a mat inside is really far less preventative than leaving them outside.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 07:15 PM   #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enorbet View Post
I thing ChuangTzu is still trying to argue "it's just another flu" which is opposed by every scientific paper I read or the Surgeon General or the CDC, but let's see how he responds



The whole concept of washing hands as preventative for COVID-19 is that these droplets of moisture exhaled by infected hosts can live for hours to days depending on the surfaces upon which they land. Touching those surfaces and then contacting mucuous membranes (mouth, nose, eyes, etc.) with those unclean hands can infect us.

While washing hands after eliminating (urinating or defecating) isn't a bad idea it has zero to do with preventing almost any disease. Urine and feces are sterile when they first leave our bodies. Their danger is they are also full of nutrients for some animals and most smaller lifeforms including bacteria so they are like a lush garden, which is why such products are used as fertilizer. The idea of proper hygiene including washing after we do our toilets is "elevated" by old ideas and especially religions that consider those our "naughty parts" when actually those parts are vastly cleaner than our mouths and hands. We would actually do better to wash our hands before we do our toilet. However removing shoes is substantially better validated. It's just that placing them on a mat inside is really far less preventative than leaving them outside.
enorbet your last comment is factually incorrect. Urine and feces are the result of the elimination of waste and unless the person has a 100% pristine system and consumed 100% clean food then their waste has bacteria, parasites, viruses and other harmful and communicable properties in it that it picked up via the digestive tract. So I agree that it could be, perhaps should be clean, however, given the unlikely scenario of perfect health and perfect food, it is best to assume that a persons body fluids and waste are not clean.

Last edited by ChuangTzu; 03-25-2020 at 07:24 PM.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 07:21 PM   #187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
I wasn't accusing you of an "agenda". I was just confused about what you were trying to say (thanks for clarifying). I think everyone would agree with "don't panic" and "be reasonable and careful", though perhaps there is some disagreement on what those mean exactly.


So I'm having trouble understanding your point. Do you think the virus "naturally" dimishes after 6-8 weeks, or you think the response (lock downs, etc) is responsible for that?



I don't think you'll find anyone arguing against hand-washing, but as far as I understand, the primary mode of spread is breathing in water droplets exhaled by infected people.
Regarding the life cycle the answer appears to be both. 6-8 week life cycle only thing a lockdown could do is "prevent some from being exposed" during that life cycle. Which is why you see most speaking about 2-4 week time frames, since the assumption is we are already 1 month into the cycle. 8 weeks would be approx. Easter in the USA, Italy a week or two before that.

The early evidence so far shows a possible seasonal cycle similar to influenza or H1N1, although some evidence suggests it could be similar to the original SARS and mostly be confined to one event.
 
Old 03-25-2020, 08:18 PM   #188
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You can find a daily report about what is happening in France on the Pandora boards.
It contains only articles from official french press (no twitter or FB etc.), with sources.
It starts approx. there, and grows day after day as people from everywhere in the world must understand that the situation is extremely serious:
https://pyra-handheld.com/boards/thr...1#post-1670823
 
Old 03-25-2020, 10:17 PM   #189
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"If that is the infection rate then 44k infects 88k which infects 196k which infects 392k. "

Yes that could be true of an unrestricted pandemic. However almost every place on earth has placed restrictions that hopefully will slow this menace.
 
Old 03-26-2020, 01:43 AM   #190
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Numbers, statistics, comparisons, trustworthiness of media... whatever the discussion may be, I hope nobody doubts the dangers of a global disease like this or even suggests to NOT act on the recommendations put out by your government.

Don't panic, either way.
 
Old 03-26-2020, 01:45 AM   #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChuangTzu View Post
enorbet your last comment is factually incorrect. Urine and feces are the result of the elimination of waste and unless the person has a 100% pristine system and consumed 100% clean food then their waste has bacteria, parasites, viruses and other harmful and communicable properties in it that it picked up via the digestive tract. So I agree that it could be, perhaps should be clean, however, given the unlikely scenario of perfect health and perfect food, it is best to assume that a persons body fluids and waste are not clean.
Thank you for this, ChuangTzu. Your comment caused me to look deeper and it does seem that new means of testing for bacteria not possible until recently does confirm that most people do have some bacteria in their urine. In a similar vein it also turns out that another accepted bit of information that there are 10 times as many non-human cells in us than human cells, basically inhabiting the human microbiome, has been reduced to 3 to 1 and possibly as little as 1 to 1 pending further study. In any case, the vast majority are symbiotic, actually helpful under healthy conditions.

The kicker is that despite the fact we do pass bacteria through our digestive tract into our waste, since those bacteria are already present indide us they pose little if any additional threat. My point that it is likely wiser to wash ones hands before toilet, is still valid.

As per COVID-19 the value of washing hands is entirely related to exposure. If you touch something new to your environment you need to avoid touching your face (any mucuous membranes) and wash your hands or if uyou are wearing gloves, disinfect them or throw them away. If there is nothing new in your environment, there's obviously no harm in washing, but it weon't further reduce the risk of infection by COVID 19.

Bodily fluids are an entirely different situation. IF those fluids are from an infected body, those fluids can transmit the disease. With COVID 19 It can't happen just by breathing the same air. It happens when one is close enough that exhaling, especially forceful exhaling like coughing or sneezing, carries a mist of infected bodily fluids.
 
Old 03-26-2020, 04:45 AM   #192
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This is like Pandora box. So try to be accustomed with it. No matter of what it will return. Even if pandemic will be over. Now it is up to community of scientists all over the world to find a cure. But not for only this particular virus but for all. Even USA with all its superior economy can't do it itself only - because it is about man genius. It is not something can be produced or bought on market. But of course money are needed to support research. Till now researchers can only dream of using super-computer to provide simulation - it was told to them it is too expensive. Yet the same super-comupters - are used just right now - to transfer what I am writing. But pure clear my post won't cure anyone. This is brigth side of present situation - priorities need to be changed - if we want to survive. I am just quite serious here. Try to imagine several consequitive such pandemias.

Last edited by igadoter; 03-26-2020 at 04:46 AM.
 
Old 03-26-2020, 05:42 AM   #193
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It's possible they may have found the British "Patient Zero". A British family went skiing in Ischgl in the Austrian Tyrol in January. Afterwards they all fell ill with classic covid symptoms -- fever, cough, exhaustion -- and a dry cough spread round the local schools. Of course this was some time before the known early cases came back from Northern Italy.

The point is that a suspected covid infection in Ischgl was covered up and may be responsible for most of the covid cases in Germany. There is now a criminal prosecution going on. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...reds-infected/

Last edited by hazel; 03-26-2020 at 05:44 AM.
 
Old 03-26-2020, 06:16 AM   #194
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Just thought I'd post this in this thread as it is relevant.
(A lady on one of my other forums found it.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Btv6gBfQEE
 
Old 03-26-2020, 06:38 AM   #195
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Lovely!
 
  


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