Originally Posted by Surgeon General US, Jerome Adams, Monday, March 23, 2020

"I want America to understand, this week, it's going to get bad," he said in a television interview. "And right now there are not enough people out there who are taking this seriously."

Originally Posted by enorbet

Statistics are a form of generalization so implicit in their nature is how much we read into them, BUT, assuming the publishers of specific statistics are computing and reporting raw facts, they are at their base, factual. For example, the number of reported cases in Lombardy, Italy as of March 23rd was 28,761 and the resulting numbers of deaths was 3,776. We can rightfully argue that amid overwhelmed medical systems those numbers and especially the total reported infections could be off and likely under-reported, but it is also highly doubtful those numbers are so far off that the resulting percentage of deaths at 13.1%, will drop to 1/10th that. IMHO to refer to this as "smoke and mirrors" is at best wishful thinking and at worst deathly irresponsible.

Add this -



Will there be people who take commercial and political advantage of this crisis? Of course, as in any crisis, but please consider that, for example, that some took advantage of the nuclear catastrophe brought on by a tsunami in Japan did not change the absolute facts that the nuclear accident occurred, that it was caused by a tsunami and that the plans to build in that location were highly flawed before construction ever began.

If you are a person who is inclined to politicize everything and look for evil manipulators everywhere, the place to look is how government officials passed the permits necessary to ever build there in the first place, not only putting people's lives at stake but the reputation and trust in both government officials and nuclear power at stake.

In the case of COVID-19 here in the US, whatever one thinks of President Trump's politics, there are some obvious facts to consider regardless of his philosophy and expertise or lack thereof. He is acutely aware that even if only because COVID-19 happened on his watch it can make his presidency look bad and threaten his chances of re-election. Add to that his obvious hyper awareness of "enemies" has consistently in the past in a slightly paranoid manner, that people are out to get him personally, professionally, and politically. Add to that his hotels and resorts have not been doing well financially and are being hit hard by social distancing making his prospects personally and professionally as well as his reputation of expertise rather severely at risk.

If you don't factor in such considerations as the difference between the perceptions and motivations of the Surgeon General and the President, you are being remiss, to say the least. Ancient Sumerians didn't create the virus and the Illuminati haven't been hoarding it awaiting the right moment to unseat government officials and "make a killing".

Don't panic. Don't dismiss. Just be reasonable and careful and stay safe.

EDIT: I just realized i didn't post a source for the Lombardi statistics. So for those interested this website has an extremely comprehensive array of global and local statistics and is up-to-the-day complete.

https://www.statista.com/topics/6061...d-19-in-italy/

Originally Posted by ChuangTzu

enorbet, Wuhan China also had a mortality rate of 12%+ in the first few weeks, then the percentage fell sharply as more people were tested. The overall rate in China, South Korea and Japan is around 0.6%. Now, South Korea, China and Japan are back to near normal, even Wuhan just fully reopened.

Originally Posted by enorbet

Even if we assume that is entirely accurate, if you look at the number of cases per million inhabitants by country on the webpage I linked, you will see the potent effect of social distancing to flatten that curve, which China handled effectively whatever we think of their methodology. As for percentages an important aspect to remember since nobody likes to imagine themselves unlucky, but it matters little what the overall percentages are to you if you are on the wrong side of such statistics. To you, it will be 100%. It should be all too obvious "business as usual" is not a wise move. FWIW I say this even though I have a rather large number of family that are business owners, one of whom owns a chain of restaurants, who are at extreme economic risk, but I'd rather see them poor than dead.

Originally Posted by hazel

I think that when this is all over, there is going to be a big drop in travel that will last for at least a few years and perhaps much longer. So many people got their fingers burned, getting stranded abroad and/or losing large amounts of money. And who would want to go cruising in future now that Cruise Ship = Plague Ship?

If that was all, there might be a rebound after a few years as the memory faded. But given that more and more people are worried about climate change, the rebound may never come. The greatest argument against reducing international travel (one of the biggest sources of atmospheric carbon dioxide) was always that people simply weren't willing to give up a pleasure they had come to take for granted. But now it looks as if those same people are going to get used to not flying. Turning it into an environmental virtue and feeling smug about it is the next logical step.

Another thing that is going to change is worldwide just-in-time production chains. People never realised how vulnerable that makes business but now they do. I learned today that most of our pharmaceuticals come from China. I think governments all over the world are going to want to encourage local production and avoid ever again being dependent on China for anything important.

Originally Posted by ChuangTzu

That's the hysteria. The raw data shows that overall (outside of the medically fragile) the mortality rate is around 0.6%, of course initially its higher because only the most severe are tested and of course many of them die. That is also why no scientist relies solely on initial data, you have to look at the overall raw data, for instance in China 90+% of those that were infected are now fully recovered and most of them were within 1-2 weeks. 90% of those tested did not have covid-19, they had other infections or simply allergies/sinusitis or not sick at all. I am using China, South Korea and Japan as examples because they have the best overall data as the virus went through its full cycle. Even in Italy the numbers are improving (raw data not media reporting). Also keep in mind that those three countries did not lockdown their nations nor entire states, it was primarily limited to the most effected cities.

Originally Posted by enorbet

What I posted and what is on that website is most assuredly NOT hysteria. In fact it has more meaning because it has no variable regarding who or how many were tested. It is simply deaths known to be caused by COVID-19 compared to whole population per million, sick or healthy. "Initially" plays zero part in those statistics.

If the Surgeon General of the US is correct, we are about to see here how this actually plays out. Iran is doing their extreme best to stifle and deny, long claiming the paranoid delusion that COVID-19 was designed to by it's enemies bring Iran to it's knees but a vastly exaggerated threat. In one single day, despite their gag orders, it became known that cases jumped from ~1000 to ~7000... in ONE day, and the numbers could be greater considering the fear and pressure the medical officials and workers are experiencing.

I am not being hysterical. Even though I am extremely vulnerable due to age and diabetes, I am also socially isolated anyway living in a sparsely populated rural community. I'm also not afraid die. I'd just prefer to live. So I have zero reason to be hysterical, which is actually counterproductive to living. I'm interested in and practice reasonable caution.

Originally Posted by ChuangTzu

Iran is a unique case because the data coming from there mainly demonstrates several things: 1) the dangers of long term economic sanctions on the health of a country, 2) the damage any infectious virus can do to a population without large scale adequate health care, 3) dangers of living in a country with an oppressive regime.