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The odds of winning the lottery twice are exactly the same as winning it once, because each event is an independent random draw.
No, given that you have already won, the odds of winning a second time are the same as the first. The odds of winning twice are quite a bit smaller.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro
I have seen documentaries where some people win some of the top prizes more than once. You'd think that the odds would multiply to such a point that it would be effectively impossible.
I think the odds of someone (as opposed to a specific person) winning twice are higher than you would naively expect, it's a similar case to the Birthday "paradox".
In my more lucid moments which I admit are few we can start with pennies. Flipping pennies heads one in two flipping it twice one in four flipping it again one in eight or to look at it another way two to the third power. This is a simple illustration of regression analysis, the probability of the outcome of a series of events. let's go back to Kim the horse racer and the navy guy. My guess is these guys knew something like the races or lotteries in advance. Then the metaphysical tote board in the sky changes going from one in a million to one to one. The odds for me to go to the race track and see all the pretty horses and try to win the pick six are one in a million because I have no edge. Everyone who wants to get good at linux should also get good at statistics as well. You can master rsync and nmap but don't know Bayes Theorum. Have you ever really thought about the odds. Our friends at Google, Facebook, etc, use Bayes constantly. What exactly do they know that you don't.
My mother was (is ...) a schoolteacher who had (has ...) an exceptional gift for dealing with "special education" students. (I don't know how she did it, but, even as a twelve-year old, I knew that "I saw a master at work.")
She can first-hand attest to the fact that, when the (US) State of Georgia first implemented its lottery, "we could buy lots of computers, but we couldn't fix the roofs on top of them! We had to cover them with plastic!"
Nevertheless ... and, "for better or for worse," ... that lottery pays the State's entire(!) education budget ... complete with a surplus.
Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-23-2017 at 12:07 PM.
I didn't hear you say it but you probably want to be nightmare good with linux. Hey I like this idea. Get a real education. How exactly will you be able to tell? Who will you talk to that knows? LQ right.
But in statistics let me tell you a story. Someone who is very good in statistics can describe everything in terms of probabilities and odds. I mean everything! He can make you think that way. If you have teacher like this you will swear the ceiling moved.
Let me give you an example. I go into the statistics class one day and he starts describing Thomas Bayes, born and died in the 1700's. Back then they knew that Bayes was to statistics as Newton is to Physics. Today forty years later everyone knows Newton but no commoner knows Bayes. BTW Bayes is smart way smarter than you and way smarter than me. He'll be smarter than me even after I'm dead. How smart is Bayes? Although there are parts of society that use him there are other parts of society that don't use him. This implies that big segments of society don't know jack shit. After I'm dead maybe years in the future it might be so. I am going to throw down the gauntlet if you ever figure out from statistics what I'm talking about we will go out and get smashed ( I mean blasted on Beers my treat ). Every really good story has a riddle and anyone who is any good solves them.
A problem. In it's simplest terms Bayes describes two populations and knowing how understanding the probabilities of one can affect the knowledge about the other. He then proceeds to talk about his ex-wife. Later on in the class he changes it to an old friend from ex-wife because he says this bothers his conscience. He then says his ex-wife called and told him she mailed him a letter. You say to yourself I don't care that some winch sent him a letter but then he says what would change if 99% of the letters from New York arrive in three days. It's now six days let me give you another hint. Never lose attention to detail. He then says his ex-wife called and told him she sent a letter three days ago. But it hasn't arrived. He asks the class what are the chances she is lying. I leave it to you what are the chances?
Here in Illinois it was the original intent to cover education with lottery money. Sadly the legislatures decided to move monies to the general fund. Guess what? Education gets a minute amount of money from the general fund as compared with the original amount from the lottery.
Just a trick to get more monies into the state coffers with a pretense that the lottery money would support education so Illinoisans would let the lottery go forward. Again Illinois legislatures to changing the way to cover their past loses.
I have a winter home in Florida and believe me the state of Florida is way better off than here in Illinois. I may become a permanent Florida resident. With Illinois talking about state increase for income & property taxes to bail out their past poor rules of distribution of tax money. Look at how many past Illinois governors are in prison. Personally I think speaker Mike Madigan should be sitting in the cell next to Blogo. Mike M controls everything here in Illinois and he represents the smallest district in Chicago. No coincidence that Mike is speaker but a controlled move by a corrupt politician that controls everything.
Sorry about moving in this direction but I do feel that this is no coincidence for Illinois but a controlled move to get certain legislatures too much control.
I am very peeved with this move for Illinois.
So as to coincidence, I think it is not that way here in Illinois for winning anything let alone a lottery jackpot. We have not had a state budget since 2015 and that's no coincidence just manipulation by a speaker of the house with too much power. Term Limits would be a nice thing but not a coincidence but a necessary change here.
EDIT: Statistically the probability of my moving permanently to Florida is prominent and very likely to happen in 5 months.
Last edited by onebuck; 05-23-2017 at 03:03 PM.
Reason: add comment
Back on to probability and statistical data:
Now, in quantum Mechanics, it is the Uncertainty Principle; and, on the other hand, it is Luck in MetaPhysics.
The probability of anything happening begins first with the desire to do such an action.
Desire is the metaphysical equivalent of decision. It is when one combines desire with decision that free will is exercised. For reason that the multiverse is vibrating at infinite, different, and random frequencies, the action taken may affect the different probabilities in those possible realities. At the time the realities merge due to frequencies harmonizing, there will then exist an actual physical/temporal reality in the space-time continuum.
Let's bring a different perspective to this scenario. Schrodinger's paradox is actually about three dimensional matrix math probabilities for a certain event. The cube is a hyper-cube with the experimental variables on one and omniversal - or "real world" - variables on the other. If the two cubes of the hypercube do not match with the same frequency, then that possibility becomes null for that given universe.
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