so, im going to vegas tomorrow, and im trying to think of a "sure" way to win in roulette...

to simplify things, assume that the 0 and 00 are not there, so the probublilty of getting black, red, even, or odd is 1/2 for each... would this make sence

i will always be betting either black, red, even or odd... this stratagie should double my money according to the probubility of getting one of the spins correct

spin1:bet $2: prob:0.5
spin2:bet $4: prob:0.75
spin3:bet $12: prob:0.875
spin4:bet $36: prob:0.9375
spin5:bet $108: prob:0.96875
spin6:bet $324: prob:0.984375
spin7:bet $972: prob:0.9921875


so, if im willing to drop $1000 i have a 99% chance of doubling my money? this whole thing will be a little skewed because of the fact that there are 0 and 00.

No.
spin1:bet $2: prob:0.5
spin2:bet $4: prob:0.5
spin3:bet $12: prob:0.5
spin4:bet $36: prob:0.5
spin5:bet $108: prob:0.5
spin6:bet $324: prob:0.5
spin7:bet $972: prob:0.5

By the time you get to spin 7, the probability that you will have won one of the spins is 0.992.... The probablility that you will win that specific spin is still 0.5. A better way to play would be to continue betting higher only if you haven't already won. The longer you play, the greater chance that you will win once. If you stop after the first win, you will make the amount of your final bet minus the sum of all your other bets. So you have a high chance of making a fairly small amount of money. The problem is, if you run out of money before you win, you lose big.

I would also like to add the fact that it doesn't really matter what the probability of you winning is because most casino tables are rigged. Ya... there are regulations and high fees if they are caught, but they many times run the risk anyways.

No... I'm not saying this because I saw it in the movies. Gambling was never a fair game, especially if it's someone's business.

Happy gambling. Do it having a good time. Don't expect to get rich quick and don't get down when you don't; however, if you do get rich I commend you.

Later,
ian

what i meant when i said "getting one of the spins correct" was getting that spin or any before it correct... im gonna be rich

Actually, you asked if you had a 99% chance of doubling your money. You don't. You have a 99% chance of getting one of the spins right. The only way you make any money is if the final spin is the one you get right, in which case you make $486 (if you get the seventh spin with the amounts you quoted). The chances of that happening is 50%. You will need to put down $1458 to get up to the seventh spin. Basically, any probability that relies on previous results is a bit iffy. Especially if you consider tumana's wise words, this is not a good way to make money. By all means go and have a good time, but don't expect to get rich.

yeah, i guess i worded that totally incorectly. but i understand what your saying... any other suggestions on how to make money in vegas?

You're assuming that the odds in roulette are even. That is you have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing. That's the reason Casino's use the 0 and 00, in order to tip the odds in their favor. I've never seen a table without the 0 and 00. I've only played in America though, and I hear France does some things differently. With that in mind, I've seen people use the strategy of betting on one color, and doubling up whenever they lose. I've seen people win with this, and I've seen people lose. Basically if you bet 5 and lose, next time you bet 10, and if you lose again you bet 20 and so on, and when you win, you go back down to 5. Bare in mind these types of strategies are based on probabilities. If there is a 99% chance the ball will fall on Red, that doesn't mean it will. If I were you I'd buy Beat the Dealer by Thorpe and learn to play blackjack.

oulevon look at my first post.. for the ease of computation i was saying assume there are no 0 and 00... second, your strategy doesnt work at all
bet 5 -> loose
bet 10 -> loose
bet 20 -> loose
bet 40 -> win
you will only win $5 because you spent 5+10+20=35...

First off, I understand that you were omitting the 0 and 00 for simplicity, but in practice you never going to find those odds, so why bother talking about them? If you're playing in the US, then there are going to be 36 numbers plus the 0 and the 00. So if you pick a color or odds or even, then the probability is roughly ~.47 for each spin.



Secondly, that isn't my system, it's widely known. And it works in whatever increments you decide to bet. So yes in the example you only win $5, and you keep continuing with this strategy. It takes hours and tons of patience. But you need to be able to bankroll enough consecutive losses for it to be successful. If you want to win fast at roulette you have to take big risks and get lucky.

One of my friends convinced me that betting on two of the three thirds (1-12, 13-24, or 25-36) is safer than going straight red or black. He uses the same technique (doubling up to negate your losses) but says that he has a .66 probability of hitting it rather than the .5 with red/black (minus 0 and 00).

A safer bet but a lower payoff. It would seem more interesting to play that way because you could gage bets from the previous rolls too and change up thirds. I don't gamble though, so I couldn't tell ya.

I wouldn't call it a safer bet. Let's look at a scenario. Betting on a 1/3 of the board pays out 2-1. So if I put $5 on 1-12, and $5 on 13-24, I've invested $10. I have a ~.63 chance of winning, and a ~.37 chance of losing. In the instance that I win, I win $5. In the instance that I lose, I lose $10. So your odds are certainly increasing, but the the payout is only half your wager, while if you lose, you lose all your wager. So if we say your bet is $10 ($5 for each 1/3) then the probabililty say that out of a hundred games I'll win 63($5) and I'll lose 37($10) which translates to 315 - 370 = - $55. In the original system we were winning ~.47 of the time and losing ~.53 of the time, but we were only wagering $5. So the probability says that out of a hundred games I'll win 47($5) and I'll lose 53($5) which translates to 235 - 280 = $-45. I believe all the math is correct there, but if someone sees an error please correct me.

I think Ikebo has a good strategy. If you combine his strat with the strat of doubling your money until you win, you will need less of an outlay (i think, without any big calculations). The reason is that Ikebo's strategy has a worse outlay:winnings ratio but a higher chance of success. When you bet multiple times, the chance of outlay:winnings ration remains constant, but the chance of success varies exponentially. By winning earlier, there is a much smaller chance that you will run out of money before winning.

Hehe, well best of luck to anyone that goes by it. The casinos deserve to have the odds turned against them for a change.

Word of caution though, we ran a computer simulation of the this process and it came out more fair than it did at the casino (that is, fewer losses in a row until a win). But many of my friends have had success with it.

Lets us know how it goes.