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There are some events, random in nature, which cooperate, sequentially or concurrently for other dependent events equally random in their nature.
Take the example of a critical failure in a complex system like an airplane , or a car.
This will hapen as soon as one critical subsystem of the main system fails, with a given probability; and this later failure within the critical subsystem will occur as soon as one critical component within it ceases to operate normally.
There are statistical distributions for probabilities of failure associated with each elementary component.
One can predict which is the probability distribution of failure of the top system using a techique called Stochastic Modelling.
Does anyone here in this forum knows of any OSS package that performs this kind of analysis...?
This is used in Acessing most probable failure modes in systems in Engineering, most likely transaction plans to yeld high profits in Stock Eschange portfolio transactions... lots of exaples out there...
Those packages allow ( ...have toolboxes readily available for ) montecarlo simulation of modes of failure in complex systems reliability assessements...?
I know what the code must perform... I only don't know wether this has already been implemented in some specific compiled app ( faster execution, I am talking heavy number crunching here ... ) or in some scripting app ( I use Scilab, Octave and Python, but this is not likely to yeld acceptable results for big systems in acceptable run times... let's not compare python code with a c/c++ application compiled with icc for instance )...