What other possibilities are there then?

Exactly. Hence it's most likely one of the other two possibilities. Probably #3: you missed some factors in your calculation.

Okay, but the question of whether your particular calculation is correct or not has nothing to with the safety/efficacy of the vaccine.

This is beginning to look like an "enorbet vs ntubski" row:(.

Could you guys please take it to pm and stop spamming the thread? The usual pattern is: row -->bitter row with personal insults --> thread closed. Let's avoid that.

OK. Astrazeneca is to get a blood clots warning (which most people don't read) and it's back - full speed ahead. They should do the same for steak, full fat cheese, Chorizo,(long, long list of poisonous foodstuffs)

Here's a row for you, business_kid. I defy you to find even two of my posts out of thousands in which I have personmally attacked someone. Spreading unfounded rumours (FUD, defamation of character, slander etc) is a serious offense while a gentlemanly argument is most often productive... at the very least in demonstrating that differing POVs can be civil, and every now and then, actually resolved peacefully.

I'm actually a wee bit surprised such behaviour is coming from you, business_kid, despite knowing my anti-Religion views offend you. However have I ever treated you with disrespect? If you think I have I will sincerely consider any instance and gladly explain and/or apologize if I have.

I like the phrase by someone whose name aI forget - "Never attribute to malice that which can be more easily explained by incompetence" and I would add "or misunderstanding".

I think one of the major advantages and benefits of LQN is that it stands head and shoulders above most message boards exactly because it treats people as responsible adults instead of folding to Political Correctness where no team, no individual ever wins and even bench-riders on last place teams get trophies.

(Hanlon's razor, apparently named by a 1980 joke book after a submission from someone called Robert Hanlon, likely inspired by any of several equivalent earlier phrasings from various authors.)

See Hanlon's Razor in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

An early open source advocate called Eric S Raymond, maintained an early version of the Jargon File which refers Hanlon's Razor. It is now published by MIT Press - presumably on a for profit basis.

AP

To have some sure knowledge about vaccination we need to wait till next year. To reevaluate period of immunity - say for 50% of people vaccinated it can be one year, for others longer - for some even life-time immunity. Despite that however there is still something we can do. To control pandemia. First of all we need to flatten the curve describing nuber of infections/ per day. Now we have jump in Poland from 4 thousand to near 30 thousands. It would be much better to have constant rate around 10 -12 thousands infections per day. See today government has to assure the same number of beds in hospitals as during recent wave - about 35 thousands. Having constant rate during all year - it would be only 15 thousands of beds. So many hospitals would go back to provide their planned services. Now even important treatments due to lack of beds - are delayed. I think to reach this goal we need lockdowns per constant period - one lockdown on the bottom - and on lockdown on top - of number infections. In practice at this moment I see this as 7-10 day lockdown per 45 days - where in time possibly perido between be extended to 60 days. I mean we can try to develop procedures to control pandemia - control in the meaning of optimize some parameters - say lower costs of dealing with it. To opimize healthcare services - to avoid situation that not pandemia but lack of access to this services would start to kill people. We really can do much more than sit and count how many people were already vaccinated.

That's Hanlon's Razor. One of Napoleon's maxims was very like it: "I like the phrase by someone whose name aI forget - "Never attribute to malice that which can be more easily explained by stupidity."

Personally, I don't feel particularly sorry for the rich countries, where this debate is taking place, and we're worried about why we don't vaccinate more folks, our Air travel companies, rebooting our economies, etc. I feel sorry for those in war torn and poor countries who are brutalized by war, their sex or skin colour, the weather, and whose struggle is for the basics of life. Coronavirus is just another plague among many to them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...lood-clot-link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHknIMNaHB0 is a video looking at vaccine shortage, pricing, etc ...

https://news.slashdot.org/story/21/0...ia-study-finds

The article explains how the us media seems to be exclusively negative on the coronavirus, and consequently there is a dearth of balanced reporting.

Just FTR, 6 days ago my Son and I got inocculated with the Moderna vaccine. Some people there said they'd felt some soreness at the injection site, but for my Son and I it might just as well been water - no effects whatsoever. I'll go back in 3 weeks for the booster. My roommate was inoculate with a different "brand" roughly a month ago and doesn't require a booster follow-up and felt nothing at any time either. This is entirely anecdotal with only a sample of 3 but may be of some value to someone. It surely seems valuable to me to feel some sense of improved defense.

Uh, ya, for the last 50 years now. Not trying to hijack the thread, but yes, that is an accurate observation.

For the people I know that have got the shot, all said that the second shot made their arm sorer than the first, others have said that online. One person had a fever for 2 days, and did not feel good. All better now. And, one isn't the most physically fit specimen.

Lots of older people around here refusing to get it. They don't trust the shot, or the present government. (Same in their minds)

I've heard too that you get a stronger reaction from the second shot. If you get a strong reaction from the first, you've probably had covid already.

I had my second jab yesterday and my arm ached less than the first time.