Does anyone keep track of past predictions and compare to reality?
In my short (3 years) un-paid career in OpenSource, I have seen a lot of predictions that were really just wishful thinking (including my own..
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What I believe to be true is that OpenSource sets up a global infrastructure which transcends any local business model, monopoly position, or bureacratic bumbling. I believe that predicting the local derivatives of this is not really possible. An individual decision-maker has no real view of the global state of affairs (Does anyone?) and they are influenced by factors that the maintainers of the infrastructure do not see.
Many decision-makers will not know that Linux is getting better, and will stumble along with Windows. Others will make decisions to switch regardless of whether Linux is getting better or not.