Schadenfreude? The Trumps & Covid

We're having country wide spread of infection, our numbers are higher (14 day incidence/100,000=≅300). Some rural counties have higher infection rates than cities. They're fairly good at tracing the causes here:

• Meat Factories - mainly sorted
• Care Homes - Mainly prevented 2nd time round
• Parties at someone's home - this is a big one 2nd time induced by lockdown fatigue. Restrictions now ban such events.
• Super Spreader events. One such was a Golf Club Annual Dinner. It was a club with many politicians as members. Heads Rolled. At least one Minister, 1 junior Minister, civil servants lost their privileges (Attorney General for one) and an EU Commissioner, which is one plush job, and the guy had a very important brief for our country right now. He had to go.
• Protests. These are minority anti-mask, anti-social-distancing events, partly induced by lockdown fatigue. Half of them have Covid the next week, and they are inclined to shut up for a bit then
• There's also pollution from the North of Ireland as a factor in some counties on the border with the North of Ireland. We can't close the Border anyhow, much less because of the nutty situation here. There's over 500 roads across. But a lockdown costs money, and Britain is not putting up the funds, so things were going wild up there until very recently.

And I managed to complete this post without mentioning Republican, Democrat, Presidential election, or taking a single swipe at a fellow poster

Originally Posted by business_kid And I managed to complete this post without mentioning Republican, Democrat, Presidential election, or taking a single swipe at a fellow poster

Haha!

It looks like 47 million Americans already voted, some say the dice have already fallen, the last debate was fairly civilised due to rules and a mute button, DT seems to be on a downhill slope even in traditionally Republican states...
Every argument has been argued, Corona still sucks.
Now we wait...

Wait, no, today Trump managed to alienate Ethiopia... wow. He probably thought that nobody (in the US of NA) is looking that way anyhow.

Originally Posted by ondoho Haha! It looks like 47 million Americans already voted, some say the dice have already fallen, the last debate was fairly civilised due to rules and a mute button, DT seems to be on a downhill slope even in traditionally Republican states... Every argument has been argued, Corona still sucks. Now we wait... Wait, no, today Trump managed to alienate Ethiopia... wow. He probably thought that nobody (in the US of NA) is looking that way anyhow.

"Trump Now Beating Biden 49-46% in Florida, 48-47% in North Carolina says Rasmussen Polls" https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/s...21197087854593

The race appears to be tightening. More paths open to Biden but Trump must take both Florida and Penn.

Updated September 10, 2020:
"For Pandemic Scenario 5:
This scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available."

Parameter Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate------Percentage Recovered
R0*-------------------------2.5
Infection Fatality Ratio†---0-19 years: 0.00003--------------99.997
IFR-------------------------20-49 years: 0.0002---------------99.980
IFR-------------------------50-69 years: 0.005----------------99.500
IFR-------------------------70+ years: 0.054------------------94.600
% infections asymptomatic---40.00%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

*Percentage Recovered Added

Originally Posted by mjolnir % infections asymptomatic---75.00% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

75% is "Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic", "Percent of infections that are asymptomatic" is 40%.

Originally Posted by ntubski 75% is "Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic", "Percent of infections that are asymptomatic" is 40%.

Thanks

Interesting. So.... Mjolnir, do you wear a mask in public or not?

Originally Posted by enorbet Interesting. So.... Mjolnir, do you wear a mask in public or not?

Virtually all of my non-familial interactions since March have been online or open air/at a distance. On the rare occasions that I enter an enclosed public space such as the friend's funeral of which I posted earlier, I do wear a mask, social distance and use hand sanitizer.

Originally Posted by mjolnir "Trump Now Beating Biden 49-46% in Florida, 48-47% in North Carolina says Rasmussen Polls" https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/s...21197087854593 The race appears to be tightening. More paths open to Biden but Trump must take both Florida and Penn.

I think that particular poll has a slight Republican bias. I find this one nearer the mark.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

They say:

The BBC poll of polls looks at the individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.

In Ireland, we don't care because this has as much entertainment value as any spectator sport. The question I'd like to know is: can anyone hack in yet? We've heard very little about the Chinese doing that, either because they're very good, or very bad. Plenty of Russian efforts on social media getting caught. I'm not hearing anything about Iran either.

Originally Posted by business_kid I think that particular poll has a slight Republican bias. I find this one nearer the mark. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-53657174

Possible, Rasmussen was off the mark in 2012 but was very close in 2016:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...a-pro-gop-bias
'“Obviously we’re quite comfortable with our partisan breakdown. Let me remind Ipsos that we got the 2016 presidential race right,” Coombs continued. “The vast majority of pollsters did not.”

In its final poll of the 2016 race between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Rasmussen indicated that Trump would lose the national popular vote by two points. In the official government tally, he lost by 2.1 percent.'


"8 November 2016
Who is ahead in the polls:
Clinton 48%--Trump 44%"
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37450661

"These are the latest predictions from the number crunchers at some US media:

New York Times Upshot: Clinton has 84% chance of winning

FiveThirtyEight: Clinton has 65% chance

HuffPost: Clinton has 98% chance"
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37884603

I accidentally saw this when opening youtube's main page in TOR Browser. Guess I must have landed in the US of NA.
You folks probably think it's normal; for me it's unthinkable. Just another reason why democracy is ailing over there.

@mjolnir: Nolo Contendere on the figures. I stand corrected, not that I care. The gap is tightening, but we only learn what was wrong with the polls in retrospect.

@ondoho: Haha. I read somewhere (Slashdot?) that Youtube was having issues placing election ads in relevant spots because the campaigns are buying loads of advertising and detecting people who are a) American & b) undecided voters isn't finding enough. People are not forthcoming about that sort of thing, and no wondert. Americans must be the most ad-spammed & add-immune folks on the planet.

The undecided voter.

https://scrot.cloud/images/2020/10/26/undecided.png

8bit

Originally Posted by mjolnir "These are the latest predictions from the number crunchers at some US media: New York Times Upshot: Clinton has 84% chance of winning

So is a prediction of 84% for Clinton wrong if Trump wins? They didn't say 100%.

Originally Posted by ntubski So is a prediction of 84% for Clinton wrong if Trump wins? They didn't say 100%.

Of course not. Rasmussen uses a fundamentally different methodology than other pollsters often leading to criticisms of bias. That may or may not be true but to me it's illustrative of the fact that the BBC technique of using composite median values to plot a trend line, touted at post #249, wasn't reliable in 2016 and may not be reliable in 2020.
They could be spot on this time. That remains to be seen.