Your rsync command looks good to me.
Try adding the --log-file=FILE option, and keep the -v or ---verbose (which affects logfile verbosity too). In the log file, look for lines like the following:
When the file is originally transferred, and there is nothing to link to:
Code:
2014/05/10 11:40:04 [9816] >f+++++++++ Screenshot from 2014-04-22 12:16:25.png
If the file has been modified, so both the size and timestamp do not match those of the corresponding file in --link-dest, you get a line like this:
Code:
2014/05/10 11:53:58 [10462] >f.st...... Screenshot from 2014-04-22 12:16:25.png
When there is a matching file in the --link-dest directory, no such line appears.