Will aviation industry recover?
 

A lot of people in the aviation industry say "It will, as soon as a vaccine comes out"

But the things to be considered are

- The flu vaccine, which first became available 70 years ago, has efficiency rate of 38%. And it is ridiculous to expect the corona vaccine, which was developed over 1~2 years, will magically turn our world back to what it was like, before the pandemic began

- The above explains why most vaccines take decades to develop, and why many people refuse to be vaccinated. They say, "We are not experimental guinea pigs"

- The aviation industry insiders say " Remove the 14 day isolation quarantine and people will start traveling more " - people are not traveling at the moment, not because they do not want to do the 14 day quarantine, but because they do not want to be infected with the coronavirus while traveling. Would you be glad to travel around the city where there were 100 newly infected patients within the last 24 hours? Not me

- A lot of brick and mortar businesses have been ordered to stop operating by the governments. It will be kinda boring and pointless to travel around cities where majority of businesses are saying, "No you cannot come in"

( By the way, president Mr. T had said an effective vaccine will be available in October 2020 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/trum...n-october.html )

- The coronavirus is an RNA virus, not DNA virus. That means, the structure of the coronavirus keeps on changing. For example, we humans can never change our own DNA, or any other kind of DNA in this world, because it is DNA not RNA.

- The coronavirus actually had existed for ... from wikipedia ...
and it is very safe to conclude the coronavirus will NOT become extinct within the next several months.

- And through this pandemic, a lot of people have learned to work with video conferencing. Neither video conferencing, nor physical face-to-face meetings, are superior to the other. They both have their own benefits. But one thing for sure is, through this pandemic, people have learned to work via video conferencing, and it does save time, money, and it is environment friendly. But people still enjoy going on vacation trips of course, including me.

so... what do members of L Questions think?

Eh, some virus's die off, or nearly so. SARS that was all the fear back in the early aughts by the time a vaccine was developed for it had essentially just died off months before. It's almost unheard of (BTW, current Covid19 is VERY closely related to SARS) nowadays for the SARS virus to affect someone. Covid19 COULD eventually be like that. Obviously it's already stuck around far longer than SARS did, and it is unlikely.

As far as the aviation industry, since they clamoured about wanting money and immediately after getting a government bailout started letting employees go and used that bailout monty to give their execs bonuses...I hope it doesn't. I hope all the existing companies go out of business and companies that have MORALS eventually come to replace them.

In the last week, I've seen just two aircraft overhead on route to Heathrow. Bliss! Most air travel is unnecessary — business people who could have used video-conferencing and herds of tourists en route to the Costa del Proletarios. Let it die!

Given the amount of climate-changing CO2 that planes spew out, and the impossibility of replacing them with electric models (as we can do with cars), I don't think the collapse of this industry is going to be a great loss to mankind.

The modern idea that we need to holiday on other continents and fly in avocadoes every day for our meals is quite ridiculous. When I was growing up, most people in most European countries took their holidays in their own native countryside. If you were very adventurous (or very rich) you might go to Paris or Rome just to see the sights, but you went by train. The rich booked a sleeper and the poor used couchettes and it was a thrilling adventure! Flying is just a pain in the neck.

As for food, we ate seasonally and didn't expect strawberries in December. Only exotic fruits like oranges and bananas were imported and they came by sea.

btw not all RNA viruses go in for rapid mutation. SARS-covid seems so far to be pretty stable, probably because it can spread itself so well through asymptomatic carriers.

Companies with morals went out the window when the Chicago school of economists came up with the notion that the first responsibility of a business is to enrich the shareholders.

Persons repeat that notion these days as if if were sprung full blown from the mind of Zeus, but it's only about two generations old.

Historically, the first responsibility of a business has been to the health and well-being of the business. The notion that it is right to squeeze a business into non-existence for the benefit of stockholders--oh, don't get me started.

As a general aviation pilot and someone that used to make a living in that industry (but not an airline) I hope so. I would rather fly then drive more than days journey although dealing with airports and the everyday passenger IMHO a royal PITA. I do have an extended family member that is an airline pilot and hope that he remains employed. He was a simulator training instructor for awhile and last time I heard was flying again but that was before the benefits ran out in October.

I did work for a company where it seemed the most important thing to the CEO and board of directors at the time was stock price. Many of my fellow coworkers at the time thought this was the turning point of a really good company but that is another story. I totally understand the don't get me started comment.

I'm torn on it. On the one hand I don't want people to be put out of work obviously. However I don't have the funds to travel first class, and it just isn't worth it to me being a fairly big guy at 6'4 250lbs. It just doesn't work. Suppose it helps I have zero interest in travel.

I think I've come to appreciate the area I live in more as well. I see what is around me, and have found some interesting things I never knew about in the 30 years or so I've lived here.

As far as business travel, with video conferencing and the internet capabilities of today I see that going down the tubes as well. At the very least not even close to what it used to be. Just no point to spend and go through so much when you can do it from your home. Bad for the airlines. Everyone else wins though.

I hear some variation of this daily and I laugh each time. This is here to stay and it's global. There is no "when things get back to normal"... This is the new normal. Sooner people accept that instead of longing for what used to be the better off we will all be. Hope springs eternal of course, but people are suffering for their constant hope to control something that they have no chance of controlling.

*Edit* I consider myself an extreme realist. I'd love to see it done but man can't even solve simple problems like food and clean water (plenty for all but messed due to failed management) then how are they going to stop something they don't even know people have (asymptomatics).

well said IMO.
that's what i think also, COVID is here to stay, what i am afraid is COVID-2.0.

The flu mutates about twice as fast as COVID19
https://theconversation.com/heres-ho...ovid-19-134201
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_cov...risks-news.htm

And since it mutates so fast, there's no "the flu vaccine", every year a new flu vaccine is developed. So is it really that ridiculous to develop a COVID19 vaccine in 1-2 years?

DNA viruses also mutate, just slower. The reason a human can't change their DNA is that you have billions of copies of it, one per cell. There's no way to have a co-ordinated matching change across all cells (though some science fiction proposes using a virus to do this).

It may be less impossible than you think. Battery energy density is still improving.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ight-in-canada
https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabriel...e-to-jet-fuel/

On the other hand, we eradicated smallpox. Polio isn't quite gone yet, but it's not affecting most people on the planet.

By the way, doesn't everyone consider themselves to be realists? I'd be surprised to hear from anyone who thinks their own outlook is unrealistic.

I won't argue that. But look at what was required to eliminate it. Hardly any of this is being done now. Especially since people think it's a political issue instead of a human issue.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...ia%20in%201977.

This isn't stopping any time soon until people get themselves together on it. As fragmented as people are these days they really don't stand a chance.

True. Maybe calling myself an epic pessimist is probably the proper wording.

My statistics background was triggered by the 38% effectiveness listed above for flu vaccine. Suppose you meet someone, and if both of you are unprotected, then there is a T = 90% chance of transmission if either of you has been exposed. If either of you is protected by a vaccine, then it drops to 0. The chance you are protected if you took the vaccine is V = 38%. Then there are 3 cases:

Neither is vaccinated, then transmission rate is T = 90%

One of you is vaccinated, then transmission rate is (1 - V) * T = 56%

Both are vaccinated, then transmission rate is (1-V)^2 * T = 35%

You can play around with various values of T and V, but even a 38% effectiveness is good enough to cut spreading considerably if most people take the vaccine. If the vaccine has side effects, which all vaccines do, then the Prisoners' Dilemma comes into play which is the game the anti-vax crowd prefers. It's better not to take the vaccine as long as everybody else does.

A few more questions I have in my mind

Everyone says "we need a vaccine, and the vaccine can bring us back to our lives before the pandemic began"

What does an effective vaccine do exactly? If Johnson is vaccinated, then what does it mean for Johnson? Does it mean

1 - Johnson will not be sick from the coronavirus disease
2 - Johnson will not be able to transmit the coronavirus to anyone else
3 - Both of the above

The ideal scenario is, of course, 3, but no I only see #1 as the most likely possibility ( which is still a wonderful great improvement and infinitely better than nothing ) and if it truly is #1 only, then we will have to continue wearing masks wherever we go. Because we should continue doing our parts to prevent our bodies to be used as tools to spread the coronavirus disease

flu vaccine changes every year, and we get our flu shots every year ( if we choose to ). And yes, many medical experts do expect the corona vaccine, also have to be modified, because, yes, both flu virus and coronavirus are RNA viruses

I think 1) implies 2). If you can't catch a virus, you can't spread it. There's some confusion here because not all coronavirus-infected people have symptoms. But they do have live virus inside them and that's why they can spread it to others. A vaccine would enable the recipient's immune system to kill the virus inside his body, so he wouldn't be in a position to pass it on to others.

Remember that the influenza pandemic of 1918-20 eventually died out without a vaccine. Herd immunity can still have an effect, even if immunity is short-lived. At least Covid is not as lethal, but we are in for a long haul and a lot of deaths.

Researchers and police officers thoroughly question COVID patients. For example, if Johnson had visited a hair salon, and then a sport bar, then the entire customer base who paid a visit to the same locations for the following several days, will be notified of the possible exposure to the corona virus.

Johnson would have touched the magazines for example, at the hair salon.

Johnson would have touched various parts of tables, utencils, and chairs and even the gate of the sport bar.

Johnson would have looked healthy, he might even be strong enough to withstand the coronavirus entering his body, but he basically used his hands to transmit the coronavirus diseases.