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Old 10-02-2018, 08:53 AM   #1
grumpyskeptic
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Why did Tesla stocks suddenly rocket up in price around March 2013?


From July 2010 to March 2013, Tesla stocks (stock code TSLA) rose in price by about 22% per year, compound growth.

But from March 2013 to the end of September 2013 they rose in price five times, equivalent to an annual growth of about 2438%.

What happened in around March 2013 that made the price suddenly rocket?

Thanks.

Last edited by grumpyskeptic; 10-02-2018 at 08:55 AM.
 
Old 10-02-2018, 09:32 AM   #2
MensaWater
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As ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan once put it: "Irrational exuberance"
 
Old 10-02-2018, 05:51 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MensaWater View Post
As ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan once put it: "Irrational exuberance"
Maybe... but just possibly it was the perception of deep commitment to ultimate success demonstrated by Elon Musk mixed in with a little Hope that individuals can actually do something to curb dependence on foreign oil not to mention curb human caused global climate change.
 
Old 10-02-2018, 07:49 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MensaWater View Post
As ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan once put it: "Irrational exuberance"
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds
https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary...ness+of+Crowds

The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind
https://www.amazon.com/Crowd-Study-P...e+Popular+Mind
 
Old 10-02-2018, 09:30 PM   #5
frankbell
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In 2013, Tesla automobiles won praise from a number of USA automotive magazines. Wikipedia has the list.

I tend to agree with ChuangTzu. Despite what one would hope, investors are as prone to fads and delusion as anyone else, and new tech has a cachet. Those awards would be enough to kick-off the fad.
 
Old 10-03-2018, 05:37 AM   #6
grumpyskeptic
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From the Tesla financial statements at http://ir.teslamotors.com/financial-...rterly-results the first quarter of 2013 was when they started making a profit for the first time. Since the first quarter financial statements were released to the public in early May, some of the information must have started leaking out before the official release.
 
Old 10-03-2018, 10:46 AM   #7
MensaWater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enorbet View Post
Maybe... but just possibly it was the perception of deep commitment to ultimate success demonstrated by Elon Musk mixed in with a little Hope that individuals can actually do something to curb dependence on foreign oil not to mention curb human caused global climate change.
As others have indicated stock prices usually are more reflective of "perceptions" than "reality". Tesla stock has been punished recently because many think Elon Musk is going off the deep end. Just this week their board removed him as Chairman albeit left him as CEO.

I once worked for a telecom that had very solid fundamentals so bought its stock through the company plan when it was hovering around $30. Due to the tech bubble especially "irrational exuberance" about wireless that stock in 6 months shot up to over $90 and folks were talking about how it would keep going up. I pointed out that its balance sheet and earnings still made its fundamentals good at the lower valuation but buying at this higher valuation was ridiculous. Sure enough it and other wireless stocks and the entire tech bubble all came back down. Once the tech bust hit people were selling at even lower valuations even though the fundamentals hadn't changed so such sell offs were equally ridiculous. Me, I kept the stock from the original and when it finally got sold off I made a handsome profit because I ignored the ups and downs.

People often jump into rising markets then sell in sinking ones "to avoid losing money". I often point out that if you sell a stock below what you paid for it then that is when you "lose" the money. If you buy stocks as an investment and pay attention to fundamentals rather than hype or "irrational exuberance" you're much less likely to get hurt.

If you like to gamble most states now have at least 1 Indian casino and you'd likely do just as well there as rapid buying/selling of stocks.

Last edited by MensaWater; 10-04-2018 at 08:25 AM.
 
Old 10-03-2018, 12:18 PM   #8
ondoho
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it was the slick door handles.

no car says "i'm cooler than you, and have the means to show it. i'm from the future." better than a tesla. kinda like CitroŽn in the 60s.

Last edited by ondoho; 10-03-2018 at 12:20 PM.
 
Old 10-03-2018, 09:34 PM   #9
frankbell
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Quote:
a tesla. kinda like CitroŽn in the 60s
Really? I was there. I don't recall Citroens having any cachet outside of France.

I did see one in a cool scene in the otherwise eminently forgettable movie S*P*Y*S. Our heroes in a Citroen were chasing a bad guy. They cut it close at a railroad crossing and the train took off the read of the car, and it just kept going. (On the railroad, we have a saying: Don't race the train to the crossing; it it's a tie, you lose.)

Last edited by frankbell; 10-03-2018 at 09:38 PM.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 12:20 AM   #10
enorbet
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Cool comment MensaWater. I'm aware of the old "sell the sizzle, not the steak" concept that has to do with what people perceive as exciting and/or emotionally moving and how that affects buying choices. Actually, that was my point in that I see it as a mix of both the reality of a proven track record (and this was well before his SpaceX managed to land major NASA contracts and land "the empire state building" both on land and at sea with computer controlled burns) and desire for dollars to actually act like votes, supporting that which we desire to win out.

Me? In one year back when AMD produced a double-whammy on Intel and managed to use Slot 1 rewired and at the same time introduce Super 7 buying in at that time I made a handsome return on AMD stock after it grew and split 3 times in 18 months. The same year I bought stock in a company (whose name I now forget) that was making and developing flat screen monitors that had millions of solid state "guns" in direct alignment with screen phosphors so that it had the many benefits of a CRT but without the size, bulk, heat, and alignment issues that plagued CRTs. I had been watching them for months and when they landed a Defense Dept. contract to supply them for the Abram's tank, I plunked down some bucks. Four months later the CEO died suddenly and the company never quite recovered and I essentially lost it all. Thankfully I made 5 times with AMD what I lost with that debacle.

In both cases my buying decision was a combination of what seemed like good odds for growth as well as my desire for those technologies to do well. Both were necessary and sufficient... at least for me. One was/is not enough.

Last edited by enorbet; 10-04-2018 at 12:23 AM.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 01:20 AM   #11
ondoho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankbell View Post
I don't recall Citroens having any cachet outside of France.
oh, they did in europe.
i guess it started in the 60s, but later on (70s i remember personally) it was the bee's knees: a family van that looks like something from a sci-fi movie

my work place now is in a sort of well-to-do family people suburban neighbourhood close to the city, and it's a similar situation.
i'm seeing a fair amount of these retractable door handles.
the first few times i was intrigued by the overall design of Tesla cars, but as with all expensive cars it's mostly about status, and that always p!sses me off. i don't see anything special about them - they still use combustion engines, wtf.
 
Old 10-04-2018, 04:07 PM   #12
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as of a couple days ago

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ec-case-tweets
 
Old 10-09-2018, 08:17 PM   #13
enorbet
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Whatever else may be going on anyone who hung on to Tesla stock is likely very happy right now. Here's a quote from a recent report in Bloomberg.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloomberg
First it was America’s best-selling electric car. Then it became the best-selling luxury car. Now, against the odds, Tesla Inc.’s Model 3 is becoming one of the best-selling sedans in America, period.
Full Article here ====>> --- Tesla Tops Charts ---
 
Old 10-10-2018, 02:26 AM   #14
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i realised that prices might relate very differently across thebig pond.
just for the record, here in northern europe any Tesla is still a luxury car, period. comparable to Volvo i guess, no more, no less.
 
Old 10-27-2018, 04:36 AM   #15
grumpyskeptic
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I have heard in the news that Tesla has made a profit again, I presume that relates to the 3rd. quarter of 2018.

Does anyone know if there is any list of its quarterly profits/losses for the past eight years available anywhere please? It would save me from having to go through about 32 or 33 sets of financial statements.

Thanks.

Last edited by grumpyskeptic; 10-27-2018 at 04:37 AM.
 
  


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