LinuxQuestions.org
Visit Jeremy's Blog.
Go Back   LinuxQuestions.org > Forums > Non-*NIX Forums > General
User Name
Password
General This forum is for non-technical general discussion which can include both Linux and non-Linux topics. Have fun!

Notices


Reply
  Search this Thread
Old 09-17-2020, 11:56 AM   #31
hazel
Senior Member
 
Registered: Mar 2016
Location: Harrow, UK
Distribution: LFS, AntiX, Slackware
Posts: 4,740
Blog Entries: 14

Rep: Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701

The problem with flu is that it mutates every year and the vaccine manufacturers have to guess well in advance which strains are going to be widespread in the following winter. Sometimes they get it wrong. All the same, there has been a lot less flu in elderly people in the UK since vaccination became common.

Covid-19 seems to be remarkably stable against mutations, so if they do get a working vaccine, it's likely to go on working. Even if it only gives 50% protection, that could still greatly reduce overall death rates if it is given to people at high risk such as diabetics.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 12:02 PM   #32
sgosnell
Senior Member
 
Registered: Jan 2008
Location: Baja Oklahoma
Distribution: Debian Stable and Unstable
Posts: 1,569

Rep: Reputation: 438Reputation: 438Reputation: 438Reputation: 438Reputation: 438
I would expect this flu season to be mild. If people take even the simplest of precautions against covid, they will work at least equally well for flu, which is far less contagious. But of course a large segment of the population won't even take minimal precautions against covid, so there will be flu cases.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 01:42 PM   #33
ondoho
LQ Addict
 
Registered: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,589
Blog Entries: 9

Rep: Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
There's one morsel of truth in the article: the US of NA have indeed been the leading country in all Covid19 statistics for a long while
Only in absolute numbers. Surely the proper comparison should be per capita?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
only yesterday I heard that India (a country that has easily thrice the population, and certainly doesn't do too much testing) "might soon push the USA from its first place with most COVID 19 cases" ...
Which again, is only because people insist on reporting absolute numbers instead of per capita.
I think you missed the bit where India's population is easily thrice that of the US of NA.
Now do the math again.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 04:45 PM   #34
Hermani
Member
 
Registered: Apr 2018
Location: Delden, NL
Distribution: Ubuntu
Posts: 238
Blog Entries: 3

Rep: Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Alt View Post
(..) but is it possible that hydroxychloroquine could actually be helpful? (..)
We've been treating patients with hydroxychloroquine and it did not seem to help in our patients. But it certainly did hurt them by the serious side effects with the recommended dosage for this indication: prolonged QT time leading to heart rhythm problems. That is why we stopped using it in our institution. So no magic bullet there..
 
Old 09-17-2020, 04:50 PM   #35
Hermani
Member
 
Registered: Apr 2018
Location: Delden, NL
Distribution: Ubuntu
Posts: 238
Blog Entries: 3

Rep: Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by sgosnell View Post
(..) But of course a large segment of the population won't even take minimal precautions against covid, so there will be flu cases.
Over in my hospital quite some patients think I am a bully when I point out the simple rule that only the patient is allowed in my consultation room and not the whole family (and we don't use masks).. they seem to think that simple rules apply to all but them.

Then I cough and tell them it is not that I am afraid of them spreading COVID to me but it might be the other way around works most of the times..

Last edited by Hermani; 09-17-2020 at 04:53 PM.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 04:52 PM   #36
jmgibson1981
Member
 
Registered: Jun 2015
Location: Tucson, AZ USA
Distribution: Debian
Posts: 519

Rep: Reputation: Disabled
Quote:
Covid-19 seems to be remarkably stable against mutations
I guess it depends, I haven't researched it. Just like polls I've also seen some news locations saying they've already tracked 5-6 mutations in less than a year. Depends thoug. Can one trust the news outlets. Everyone has a price, they will print / post what get's more clicks. Just like government. Anything that makes the current administration look bad gets hidden.

Quote:
But of course a large segment of the population won't even take minimal precautions against covid, so there will be flu cases.
Indeed. Astonishing how a biological that has no quantifiable intellect can choose to be political, which seems to be a common viewpoint. Sad really.

Last edited by jmgibson1981; 09-17-2020 at 04:53 PM.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 05:29 PM   #37
Hermani
Member
 
Registered: Apr 2018
Location: Delden, NL
Distribution: Ubuntu
Posts: 238
Blog Entries: 3

Rep: Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by sgosnell View Post
It usually takes years for a vaccine to be developed and approved. Rushing it and getting it approved in months could be dangerous. (..) I remember well the thalidomide fiasco, which resulted by not thoroughly researching it before approving it. (..)
As a cardiologist I use new medication a lot and even medication that has been vigorously tested can prove to be less effective and have more side-effects than the first studies claim. For instance, dronedarone was hailed as the new anti-arrhythmic drug of choice for all before in later studies it proved to increase mortality in heart failure patients, a group in which such medication is needed regularly, de facto sidelining its usage. On the other hand, recently the sacubitril/valsartan combo was introduced for the treatment of heart failure and this stuff works BEYOND expectation.

So what to make of a vaccine that has been rushed through?
  1. I know that manufacturers were working in the background on a SARS vaccine and, of course, those programs got a massive boost: being the first with a proven COVID-19 will hit the global pharmaceutical jackpot. So there was already some work done.
  2. Creating a vaccine is no cutting-edge pharmaceutical science and it requires no new paradigm to be developed.
  3. The vaccines are there, it is only a matter of getting the safety and efficacy data to materialize. Getting the proof right takes a massive amount of people taking the experimental shot and be followed for some time. More test subjects means less observation time needed. I suppose when the data come out, you'll see that they've tested with like 10.000 test subjects or something like that to get the numbers right.

The millisecond one firm has sufficient evidence they'll have it peer reviewed and published and have the stock they are undoubtedly producing right now available for sale the same day.

Will it be worth it to you? Who will be the first? Without the data it is impossible to tell.

Last edited by Hermani; 09-17-2020 at 05:33 PM.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 05:31 PM   #38
boughtonp
Member
 
Registered: Feb 2007
Location: UK
Distribution: Debian
Posts: 698

Rep: Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442
Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
I think you missed the bit where India's population is easily thrice that of the US of NA.
That's an under-estimate - it's over four times greater: 1,383 million vs 331 million.

Here's an interactive graph that compares United States and India: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...pickerSort=asc

Enabling the "Per million people" option shows the actual scale the of the difference, however unticking the "Zoom to selection" option highlights that the US is 8th-worst in per-capita terms.

 
Old 09-17-2020, 05:43 PM   #39
boughtonp
Member
 
Registered: Feb 2007
Location: UK
Distribution: Debian
Posts: 698

Rep: Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442Reputation: 442
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermani View Post
The vaccines are there, it is only a matter of getting the safety and efficacy data to materialize. Getting the proof right takes a massive amount of people taking the experimental shot and be followed for some time. More test subjects means less observation time needed. I suppose when the data come out, you'll see that they've tested with like 10.000 test subjects or something like that to get the numbers right.
Why does more subjects mean less time? isn't it a case of waiting to see if problems happen later on, which can only happen faster if a candidate vaccine causes them earlier in some people? (So candidates can be ruled out sooner, but not ruled safe sooner?)


Also, do you know what the deal is with having 182 candidate vaccines (36 in clinical evaluation)?

Is it something like having that many different ways of creating any vaccine, and they're looking at all of them to see what is effective?

 
Old 09-17-2020, 05:45 PM   #40
Hermani
Member
 
Registered: Apr 2018
Location: Delden, NL
Distribution: Ubuntu
Posts: 238
Blog Entries: 3

Rep: Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by boughtonp View Post
Enabling the "Per million people" option shows the actual scale the of the difference, however unticking the "Zoom to selection" option highlights that the US is 8th-worst in per-capita terms.
There are some striking differences between countries. Take a look at Israel, they had stringent measures to begin with and now, they seem to skyrocket. However I don't think these figures can teach us much because the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is as much a function of the actual number of infections as it is of the availability of COVID-19 tests and the quality of the test materials.

The only REAL way to measure this pandemic is to compare hospitalizations and, even more accurate and probably the best measure: pure death rate statistics. If hospitals are not full and death rates are comparable with previous years, is COVID-19 still the problem it was half a year ago?

Last edited by Hermani; 09-17-2020 at 05:52 PM.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 05:48 PM   #41
jefro
Moderator
 
Registered: Mar 2008
Posts: 20,225

Rep: Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196Reputation: 3196
"Our promising Henry Ford treatment study should be considered as another important contribution to the other studies of hydroxychloroquine "

https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/...an-open-letter

Michigan and Detroit area were some of the hardest hit places on earth. See the reports that the Henry Ford Health System has on it's use.
It like other drugs may help slow the virus if used on the correct patients.

However after seeing the folks at work that tested positive and the fact that I may have had it I doubt I'll rush to get the vaccine.

"pure death rate statistics." That is a very difficult metric. When I looked at the projected world wide deaths versus the actual there was almost no overall difference. A slight bump in spring followed by a lull in summer. The same amount of people died. Just not the same ones that may have died.

Last edited by jefro; 09-17-2020 at 05:50 PM.
 
Old 09-17-2020, 06:19 PM   #42
ntubski
Senior Member
 
Registered: Nov 2005
Distribution: Debian, Arch
Posts: 3,575

Rep: Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885Reputation: 1885
Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
I think you missed the bit where India's population is easily thrice that of the US of NA.
Now do the math again.
Hmm, perhaps I didn't make my point clear enough. I'll try again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
(*) There's one morsel of truth in the article: the US of NA have indeed been the leading country in all Covid19 statistics for a long while
The US is currently in 11th* place ordered by deaths per million people. It's between Italy and the UK right now. It has never been in 1st place (but it has been slowly going up, Italy was passed only a few weeks ago, if I recall correctly).

* Numbers/rankings from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/; it's reasonable to say 10th place instead, because the 1st place is San Marino, a microstate near the north of Italy.

Quote:
- why, only yesterday I heard that India (a country that has easily thrice the population, and certainly doesn't do too much testing) "might soon push the USA from its first place with most COVID 19 cases"
India is in 78th place, it's not even close to the USA. Comparing the absolute number of confirmed cases seems pretty irrelevant. I don't understand why people do that.

One thing worth noting is that India's infection and death rates are still increasing, whereas the US seems to have peaked. So it's possible that India could pass the US even in per-capita terms at some point in the future.

I hope I've made clear that this is not a question of math/arithmetic.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
"pure death rate statistics." That is a very difficult metric. When I looked at the projected world wide deaths versus the actual there was almost no overall difference. A slight bump in spring followed by a lull in summer. The same amount of people died. Just not the same ones that may have died.
Could you give a link please?
 
Old 09-18-2020, 07:44 AM   #43
hazel
Senior Member
 
Registered: Mar 2016
Location: Harrow, UK
Distribution: LFS, AntiX, Slackware
Posts: 4,740
Blog Entries: 14

Rep: Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701Reputation: 2701
Quote:
Originally Posted by sgosnell View Post
I would expect this flu season to be mild. If people take even the simplest of precautions against covid, they will work at least equally well for flu, which is far less contagious.
Flu statistics are now in from Australia. Their annual flu peak is in July-August and they usually have about 137,000 cases. This year they had just 315. (From the Spectator)
 
Old 09-19-2020, 02:02 AM   #44
ondoho
LQ Addict
 
Registered: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,589
Blog Entries: 9

Rep: Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
Hmm, perhaps I didn't make my point clear enough. I'll try again.
Thank you, that's much better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
Comparing the absolute number of confirmed cases seems pretty irrelevant. I don't understand why people do that.
I agree, yet those are the numbers international (meaning both international & verious national) news are spreading every day.
I can only guess it's because "confirmed case per capita" doesn't give a fair picture, either. But that would be flawed logic of course.

Somebody said death per capita is the best option. See here - again, the US of NA come out top...

To me it's a little sad and a little funny how many (presumed) US Americans protest the claim that they're actually No.1 in something...
 
Old 09-19-2020, 02:15 AM   #45
ondoho
LQ Addict
 
Registered: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,589
Blog Entries: 9

Rep: Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509Reputation: 4509
Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
These numbers differ quite a lot from what I saw on ourworldindata.org.
I had a look at their respective wikipedia pages:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldometers.info
Clearly a US affair, private enterprise, no source code.
Quote:
Virginia Pitzer, a Yale University epidemiologist, said that the site is "legitimate", but flawed, inconsistent, and containing errors.
In English Wikipedia, editors reached a consensus not to cite Worldometer for COVID-19 statistics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Our_World_in_Data
European (Cambridge) affair, University project, with international collaboration & funding (also USA).
The web site is only a part of what they do.
Source code on github.

Draw your own conclusions.

Last edited by ondoho; 09-19-2020 at 02:24 AM.
 
  


Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
LXer: Google, Mozilla both say they sped up the web today. One by blocking ads. One with ads LXer Syndicated Linux News 0 06-21-2017 10:10 AM
I want to build and host 300 U.S. voters with another billion or so visitors. bbrabozo Linux - Newbie 11 09-14-2011 04:05 PM
I want to build and host 300 millionU.S. voters with another billion or so visitors. bbrabozo Linux - Newbie 2 09-08-2011 07:58 PM
programs won't start, even if they do, they won't run smoothly sometimes, why? randytsx Linux - Software 4 12-23-2004 02:19 AM

LinuxQuestions.org > Forums > Non-*NIX Forums > General

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:23 AM.

Main Menu
Advertisement
My LQ
Write for LQ
LinuxQuestions.org is looking for people interested in writing Editorials, Articles, Reviews, and more. If you'd like to contribute content, let us know.
Main Menu
Syndicate
RSS1  Latest Threads
RSS1  LQ News
Twitter: @linuxquestions
Open Source Consulting | Domain Registration