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Old 09-29-2017, 01:51 PM   #61
jsbjsb001
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Well, you may *think* economic sanctions work, but once again, is that why North Korea is so close to getting a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead... and you call that progress?? Yeah, the sanctions that they have been under since 2006, have really worked!

The other point is that North Korea can get more money from the black market instead, sanctions or no sanctions, fact.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 05:02 PM   #62
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Economic sanctions are the equivalent of tribal shunning and/or exile which was basically anywhere from a severe punishment to a death sentance. Not one of all of us members of LQ or anyone anywhere can survive completely on our own. Even Bear Gryllis and Les Stroud bring in some gear and manage to last a week not to mention have a "safety net". Les Stroud may not have a camera crew to bail him out like Bear does but in modern society few have even Bear's skills and most of us not so prepared would die before we could learn them.

It's only slightly different for nations. These days no nation can continue it's present existence without Trade. None are totally independent. Even deep jungle tribes sport factory made T-shirts, knives, and often much more. If sanctions didn't work, shunned nations wouldn't spend so much time and effort (money) to get them lifted. They all do it because it is in their interest to not live as if in a castle siege.

I have considerable doubt that all of the leaders for the past 50 or more years of North Korea were all "evil" or "psychopathic" at the very least to the extent that anyone who actually wants to be responsible for an entire nation is sane. I suspect that they have all had some degree of inflated ego and Messianic Complex like all leaders but I also suspect they have, possibly in some tunnel vision manner, the future of their nation and their place in History in mind.

A Psych professor of mine once pointed out that "To an earthworm, the robin's song does not sound like 'Cheerup!'" Similarly we look on the purposeful devastation of the rain forest as barbaric and irresponsible and we can do this now because we did it first and grew some past it, much like the Pigs in Animal Farm. Ponder that North Korean leaders lead a nation with limited local natural resources and limited ability to conduct trade. In overall technology they are rather primitive, comparatively. They may not quite qualify for Third World but they are certainly nowhere near First World.

The definition of "Worlds" in that context depends largely on alliances and North Korea has very few. When you have little, one way to gain more is by first gaining respect via fear of threat - violence. Sorry but it's true as distasteful as that may be even to me. While a small threat is considered evil, criminal and psychopathic at some point becomes so powerful that they can begin to write their own story and become wealthy, powerful and secure. Read any account of organized crime or watch The Gangs of New York and check it against actual History if you doubt this. Look into any political leaders family and if you go back far enough you will very likely find a crook, someone struggling to pull themselves up by their bootstraps or yours if you're either in their way or worth robbing or "removing".

In short, North Korean leaders may be willing to appear as crooks now but be revered or have their offspring revered later as someone who dragged an entire nation into wealth, power and respectability kicking and screaming at the "collateral damage" but that's of little concern "now that we are here enjoying the fruits of the sacrifices they made". It is an age-old story just as demonizing one's enemies is..

Just consider that at this distance we can recoil in horror or laugh in mockery at Roman Empire leaders but the fact remains that we respect what they accomplished and it's existence changed all of the Future of all of Mankind, and considerably for the good, forever.

Finally, economic sanctions can and do have a powerful impact on such plans since it is impossible to wield power and not also have some level of relative wealth, whether that is measured in physical prowess or how many judges and nukes you can afford.

I am not equating the latest "Kim" or any of them with Roman Emperors in regards to the degree of their impact, but it is likely "cut from similar cloth" at the very least in their own eyes. To simply paint them as "evil, psychopathic murderers" is only valid if and when they lose, though it can be also a part of that process.

Last edited by enorbet; 09-29-2017 at 05:09 PM.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 05:25 PM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsbjsb001 View Post
Well, you may *think* economic sanctions work, but once again, is that why North Korea is so close to getting a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead... and you call that progress?? Yeah, the sanctions that they have been under since 2006, have really worked!

The other point is that North Korea can get more money from the black market instead, sanctions or no sanctions, fact.
That is always the position and motivation for those that are willing and able to do violence. It's immediate while other measures take time, often a lot more time BUT the effects of immediate action tend to either wear off quickly or be countered by "blowback". Longer term measures tend to stay in effect longer.

Henry Kissinger stated that World Politics is not like normal one-on-one human interaction but I strongly suspect he was just "tooting his own horn". While politics has evolved some it is still a power balance game that has gone on ever since their were two competing men or tribes/gangs. Mao said "All power comes from the barrel of a gun" but that ignores being able to afford a gun and bullets and having access to them not to mention supply lines or the old "give 'em enough rope and he/they will hang himself".

You may "think" violence is the only effective problem solver, and for a large part of human history there is considerable validity in that, BUT especially in the modern world the effect of economics is far more powerful and devious. There have always been two ways to obtain things - buy it or take it by force. If you have the means, buying it is far less risky.

The difference between rape and seduction is diplomacy.

Last edited by enorbet; 09-29-2017 at 05:28 PM.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 09:20 PM   #64
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Trump poking the fat little man has an advantage of bringing discussion.

China watches world reaction. They consider the outcome of lost markets.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 11:06 PM   #65
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Big tax cuts coming up says Trump,,, 50% to the top 1% tho.!.
 
Old 09-30-2017, 07:12 AM   #66
jsbjsb001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enorbet View Post
That is always the position and motivation for those that are willing and able to do violence. ...
Well, I do agree with what you say, there's only a couple of problems;

If we lived in a prefect world I'm sure diplomacy would always work and wouldn't that be great... but unfortunately... well, the world is far from perfect.

More to the point when we talking about people (like "rocket man") that are willing to starve their own people, in-prison their own people who disagree with their politics, etc, etc; we can ether sit back and let them do all of the above (and develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads) or we can act.

While you and I might respond to reason, someone like that who is hell-bend on doing such things has NO regard for human rights, etc.

So what CAN we do in the face of that? Well, while I'd prefer it if diplomacy worked without having to turn to violence, unfortunately, that does not always work. So it's like the old saying goes...

Quote:
Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire
 
Old 09-30-2017, 02:36 PM   #67
ondoho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsbjsb001 View Post
More to the point when we talking about people (like "rocket man") that are willing to starve their own people, in-prison their own people who disagree with their politics, etc, etc; we can ether sit back and let them do all of the above (and develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads) or we can act.
this description applies to quite many countries in the world.
(if you look back in history, even more)
so what's different here?
i think it's the perceived threat to america.
if they had no nukes, they could torture their citizens all they wanted, nobody would come wagging their fingers.

But by "acting" in the way many american politicians past or present are suggesting, we/they just make matters worse.
isn't one afghanistan, iraq, middle east etc. enough? how many more of these desasters will it take to understand that america playing world cop does NOT make this world a better place?


Quote:
So it's like the old saying goes...
i intensely dislike people saying that "sometmes you have to" do something.
it's the perfect excuse for acting without thinking first.
while in some situations the quoted saying might indeed apply, it certainly doesn't here.


but meh.

the problem here is, we (enorbet, i, many others) are preaching this now, but nobody (or at least not the people that should) will listen.
then, 10, 30, 50 years later, they will agree.
has happened before.

Last edited by ondoho; 10-01-2017 at 02:17 AM. Reason: adding clarification without changing meaning
 
Old 09-30-2017, 04:40 PM   #68
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Well jsbjsb001, it seems we agree at least that violence can be both necessary and effective. The threshold at which diplomacy stops working and all that's left is violent action is only where we differ on this. Since you effectively stated that diplomacy (sanctions) never work and I am quite certain that they do, there the gap between us is quite large.

IMHO the "iron fist in the velvet glove" is very effective or can be as long as one's enemies perceive that an actual iron fist exists beneath that softer surface. One example of this is the so-called Star Wars program which, whether brilliant or ust a pipe dream, was credible enough that the Soviet Union basically bankrupted itself trying to compete and thus lost The Cold War. Give how recently this became a historical fact, I frankly don't see how anyone can deny the efficacy of diplomacy and economic warfare.

Gangsters, or powerful leaders in the pupa stage, can sidestep and toy with the "Iron Glove/Big Stick" approach to power because they either realize that the Big Guy will look really bad and damage important relations (ruining even the facade of any soft speak/velvet glove) even to the point of declaring war as retribution for smacking down a Little Guy, OR they imagine the Iron Fist is a false front or can't or won't ever be deployed or has some serious flaw. The attack of 9/11 was based on such perception and tactics. I imagine a rather large number of conspirators escaped retribution but that the leader was finally (as well as fairly quickly and extremely precisely) killed sent a powerful message, tipping the scales of Cost/Benefit. Leader types don't relish suicide though some accept or even desire that from "peasants" with less concern than for what they eat for lunch, even going so far as to promise virgins in the afterlife or medals of honor pie-in-the-sky.

Bottom Line is that true power is directly proportional to the ability to know how to balance soft speak and big stick. This has been going on at least since the time of Roman Legions where many tribes,villages etc. gave in without a fight because the both knew they would likely lose (cost) and if they gave in they'd get roads and fountains as well as expanded trade access (benefit). In such a balance, blowhard bellicose rhetoric only undermines that power.
 
Old 09-30-2017, 05:39 PM   #69
jsbjsb001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by enorbet View Post
Well jsbjsb001, it seems we agree at least that violence can be both necessary and effective. The threshold at which diplomacy stops working and all that's left is violent action is only where we differ on this. Since you effectively stated that diplomacy (sanctions) never work and I am quite certain that they do, there the gap between us is quite large. ...
Yeah, I mis-stated myself there... I should have said that, sanctions don't always work, good point. But I still maintain that when your dealing with someone like the "the dear leader of North Korea", unfortunately once again, I can't see how sanctions are going to archive anything (and haven't).

And yes, the answer should involve more than just the US, but unfortunately, when the rest of the world wants to sit back and wait, it seems to be up to the US to make "the first move", if that makes sense.
 
Old 10-01-2017, 10:59 AM   #70
enorbet
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Forgetting for a moment the rhetoric of the UN speech, it's real value has yet to be tested. If Trump can convince China and Russia to reduce further important trade by showing it to be the smart move for their cost/benefit sensibilities he really will be The DealMaker. For me, as much as I doubt he can actually pull it off, I will be only too happy to reverse my assessment of Trump's actual ability to qualify for the single most powerful office on the globe with little understanding of Law.
 
Old 10-03-2017, 05:20 AM   #71
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...

Last edited by jamison20000e; 10-03-2017 at 04:38 PM.
 
Old 10-03-2017, 05:24 AM   #72
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I must of hit "quote" instead of "edit?" Unlike the "quote" posts where I wanted duplicates...

Last edited by jamison20000e; 10-03-2017 at 05:25 AM.
 
Old 10-03-2017, 08:00 AM   #73
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Why??
 
Old 10-03-2017, 08:36 AM   #74
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No one nation, nor the leader(s) of any one nation, can "change the world," except to the extent that the world wants(!) to be changed and is willing to do so. No speech-writer can fill the shoes of the Officeholder for whom (s)he writes flowery text. And no one nation, no matter how militarily and/or economically powerful, can do what must be collectively done.

More than fifty years ago, the Korean War simply "hit the Pause button." A line was literally "drawn in the jungle" on a map at the 38th parallel. (Over the next half-century, this "demilitarized zone (DMZ)" has become natural jungle again.)

Perhaps the leaders involved thought that this move would somehow "end it," but (even though most of them are now dead ...) they were "dead wrong." North Korea was left frozen, but still very much at war, and they've been itching to "hit the Play button" ever since. The Korean War hasn't been resolved, and it actually never will be until the peninsula is unified and therefore in the hands of one competing party (the US and its allies) or the other (China). But China doesn't want that to happen, and they have said so. (And, since the United States has foolishly abdicated virtually all of its manufacturing to that nation in a mad quest for "We Sell for Less, Always™," they now have real clout.)

If the nations of the world want to continue keeping "the Korean question" in limbo, so as to avoid re-igniting a Hot War that apparently nobody (except North Korea) really wants, they're going to have to de-fang the government that is now in control of the North, and take them off of their "eternal War footing." Which also means giving them "an actual way out." Until now, the world has been content to stuff them into a bottle and then try to forget about 'em, and to hope that the genie would somehow stay inside.

But they will not, and that's the problem. The resolution of that issue cannot "just involve the United States," no matter how much military power the US might possess. The North Korean government is recklessly threatening everyone, and so it is everyone's problem. (As it has been, for more than fifty years.)

But Korea, North and South, is a stakeholder as well ... and, in many ways, the worst Victim of all! Their country was torn from them, then torn apart, then left for dead, over fifty years ago.

Invading North Korea would only kill a lot of people, and it is of course precisely what their government is expecting, is what it perversely wants, and is what it has taught all of its people to expect as being "inevitable." It won't solve the underlying problem. Only the world community can do that, and then only if it wants to, badly enough.

As Mr. Trump correctly observed, "this is what the United Nations is for."

Suddenly, the United States of America is being lead by a man who isn't a military officer and isn't a professional politician. He unabashedly (and yet, calculatingly ... shrewdly ...) "speaks his mind." And he is a Deal-Maker . . .

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 10-03-2017 at 08:45 AM.
 
Old 10-03-2017, 10:55 AM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
No one nation, nor the leader(s) of any one nation, can "change the world," except to the extent that the world wants(!) to be changed and is willing to do so. No speech-writer can fill the shoes of the Officeholder for whom (s)he writes flowery text. And no one nation, no matter how militarily and/or economically powerful, can do what must be collectively done. ...
That's right... but once again... you seem to be not understanding that the rest of world is waiting on the US to do something. Also, "rocket man" is primarily threatening to fire missiles at the US rather than the rest of the world, with maybe the exception of South Korea.

And yes, it is the war between North and South Korea that's never actually ended, so yes, they do need to end it with diplomacy.

Quote:
As Mr. Trump correctly observed, "this is what the United Nations is for."

Suddenly, the United States of America is being lead by a man who isn't a military officer and isn't a professional politician. He unabashedly (and yet, calculatingly ... shrewdly ...) "speaks his mind." And he is a Deal-Maker . . .
And once again, HAS the UN been able to deal effectively with North Korea?? Well, I think the answer your looking for there is well, argh, NO!

The UN Security Council is a toothless tiger, why? Because the US, Russia, China, etc can VETO any resolution they like... so what is the point of it?? That's WHY!

BTW, just admit it, you love trump!
 
  


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