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Old 11-11-2022, 02:11 PM   #1
Xeratul
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Reasons behind Kherson ?


Hello,

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63598805
Loss?

Would be possible reasons behind Kherson? Why would Russians leave ?

Kind regards,
X.
 
Old 11-11-2022, 02:53 PM   #2
sundialsvcs
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Please remember, first of all, that the internecine politics of this region are both very blood-soaked and very ancient. Could it actually matter what side of a river you are on? Well, it just might matter after all, if this river is "an ancient territorial boundary."

Sometimes, "blood runs thicker than water."

This is certainly an interesting development, but let us also please remember that Putin himself referred to this as "a civil war." Blood runs deep. These people know each other.

A very interesting "background source" is thepostil.com, which is an on-line imprint of St. Augustine Press. The scholarly articles found here will describe a cesspool of internecine rivalry and bloodshed which has – literally – gone back to "a grandson of Genghis Kahn." The historical context of this entire situation is quite possibly something that you never even suspected.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 11-11-2022 at 03:39 PM.
 
Old 11-11-2022, 04:16 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xeratul View Post

Why would Russians leave ?
The Russians are leaving Kherson because the Ukrainian army has almost completely cut off the Russian supply lines into Kherson.

Slava Ukraini
 
Old 11-11-2022, 07:41 PM   #4
sundialsvcs
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"Truth is the first casualty of War."

Really, the only thing that I can say is: "Don't take anything that you hear 'at face value'" in a situation such as this. Not from either side, nor from anyone else.

Be prepared to dig for information, then to very suspiciously test every single scrap of it. You still have at your fingertips the greatest research tool ever invented by man. But you have to use it.

What is right now happening in eastern Europe is not 'new.' Don't be misled by a "brown T-shirt," any more than you were once supposed to be misled by "Zuk's hoodie." Both of these are merely costumes. Eyes wide open. Learn the "back story." Question everything.

One more observation: "The ancient cultures of Eastern Europe" might very well be completely alien to "Western sensibilities." Yet they are among the oldest human civilizations on this planet: "before the Roman Empire, before the Tsars." I wasn't kidding when I referred to a grandson of Genghis Kahn. These people have been waging war upon one another for hundreds of years.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 11-11-2022 at 07:50 PM.
 
Old 11-12-2022, 09:50 AM   #5
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Agreed, truth is the first casualty of war.And it's a pretty early casualty everywhere, these days.

So you can't know with any accuracy what's going on. But one thing you can glean from is what's not happening.
  • I know Ukraine successfully blind sided Russia into think that attack on Kherson was coming in the summer, but they took huge tracts of land in other places with very little resistance. Why? Is the Russian army short staffed?
  • I gathered that Ukraine severed many supply lines to Kherson in the summer. Why weren't they repaired?
  • Why is such a long time being talked about to repair that bridge to Crimea? etc.

Now JWs everywhere remain neutral. Our young men were still going to prison in S. Korea over compulsory military service. They got beheaded over conscription in Nazi Germany. We won't even do alternative service if it assists the war effort. So my war interest is limited.

But, what struck me was that instead of being purely army vs. army, this could have a significant chunk of supply chain vs supply chain in the mix. No wonder Putin feels he's fighting Nato - he's fighting their deep pockets.
 
Old 11-12-2022, 11:08 AM   #6
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Kindly never forget that it was the Russian Army that ultimately destroyed – not only Nazi Germany, but also the Empire of Japan.

Russia had concluded a peace treaty with Japan so that it would not have to fight a war on two fronts, but once Germany was defeated it abandoned that treaty. Russia then overran Manchuria in a mere eleven days, wiping out an entire elite Japanese army and overrunning geographic obstacles thought to be insurmountable.

Stalin then declared that his armies would be in Tokyo in a matter of a few weeks – it's a very short distance if one is coming from the west. And the Japanese fully realized that he would do exactly what he said.

It was this – not(!) the atomic bomb – which forced Japan to realize that its only remaining choice was who to surrender to: the Allies, or its Ancient Enemy. They wisely chose the former. And Stalin, for his part, chose not to further press the issue, but to continue to be "one of the Allies." He did not break from the Central Command, although his recent single-handedly crushing military victory certainly entitled him to.

Russia does not use its military like The West™ does. They never have. The West™ would do very well to recall the formidable military might – and the bottomless still-intact manufacturing capability – of a country that historically was its ally. Do Not Poke The Bear. Do not mistake "a military strategy that is fundamentally different from yours" for "weakness." Do not delude yourself into thinking that you actually possess the power to "regime change" here, because you don't and never will. Do not convert an ally into an enemy. You are not so "all-powerful" as you think ...

You are biting off far more than you can chew. Napoleon did the same. Hitler did the same. Do not do the same. You need Russia. You need to be on her good side.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 11-12-2022 at 11:24 AM.
 
Old 11-12-2022, 11:33 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by business_kid View Post
But, what struck me was that instead of being purely army vs. army, this could have a significant chunk of supply chain vs supply chain in the mix. No wonder Putin feels he's fighting Nato - he's fighting their deep pockets.
It is more than the fact that NATO is richer than Russia. The Russian military-industrial complex is ridiculously incompetent.

In peacetime Russia the Russian military-industrial complex produced enough military supplies to maintain the peacetime army including a large maneuver every year or two. Even so, corruption in the military meant that the amount of military supplies delivered was less than what was budgeted and the delivered items were often shoddy.

When Putin massed the Russian army to attack Ukraine he declared the massing to be maneuvers. When Putin opened the war he declared it to be a special military operation, i.e. maneuvers. Many Russian soldiers thought that they were on maneuvers on Russian territory. Apparently Putin in his own mind thought so too because he did not order the Russian military-industrial complex to increase production.

The Russian military has control of the Russian rail system and they are capable of delivering large number of troops and large quantities of supplies anywhere in Russia. But outside of Russia the military is dependent on trucks and the number of Russian military trucks is woefully inadequate for what Russia attempted to do in Ukraine. As the Russian columns advanced into Ukraine they needed more and more trucks, which they did not have, as the distance from the rail heads increased. The transport situation reached the point to where there was a forty mile Russian column which Russia could not supply with enough fuel and food to keep advancing. There was also the problem that before the war some Russian procurement officer had bought cheap Chinese truck tires instead of heavy duty truck tires and pocketed the difference. So Russian trucks had flat tires all over eastern Ukraine.

The sanctions imposed by the West have been very effective in the case of electronic chips. Production of war weaponry actually went backwards due to a lack of chips. In the case of cars Russia has had to quit producing
cars because Italy refuses to send critical car components to Russia. Russia is trying to retool to produce Ladas again. Remember those? More importantly Russia no longer has the capability to produce smart missiles,
airplane electronics, and secure communication gear. Without chips Russia cannot produce drones so they are buying drones from Iran. In large part the Russian army is using public telephone services. The Ukrainians are quite happy to let the Russians use the public phone system so that Ukraine can eavesdrop.

Russia used up all of their conventional artillery shells with large scale barrages. Since the Russian replacement capacity is only enough for an annual peacetime maneuver the Russian artillery is now rarely heard from. North Korea announced that they were selling a huge amount of artillery shells to Russia but these shells don't seem to have arrived in Ukraine yet.

And so it goes.

Slava Ukraini
 
Old 11-12-2022, 01:48 PM   #8
ntubski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by business_kid View Post
[*]I gathered that Ukraine severed many supply lines to Kherson in the summer. Why weren't they repaired?
I think the issue is that supply lines are within range of Ukraine's (NATO supplied) artillery/rockets. You can try to repair the roads/rails but Ukraine can still destroy them again and/or fire at the repair crew.

Not sure about the Crimea bridge (or even what the "normal" amount of time to repair a bridge like that would be?)
 
Old 11-12-2022, 03:29 PM   #9
business_kid
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@sundialsvcs: I get your point about Russia being big & powerful, but I don't go the whole way with you.

The Russia that defeated Napoleon and Hitler did so in it's own back yard, in it's own fierce winter. They were prepared for winter and the invaders were not. Their enemies were starved of resources at the end of very long supply lines. That power also split into 15 Republics in 1991. This fight is in Ukraine, in Ukraine, where Russia has the (constantly attacked) supply lines. Russia is also being overflown by US satellites and that intelligence is being shared with Ukraine. I imagine they could get photos akin to Google maps in real time on a cloud free day.

Given the reporting, it's a matter of conjecture how much support the other Russian republics provide. They hardly want roubles in payment, and Russia hasn't got much else. Using drones as missiles is a waste. We'll know Russia have lost the war when Putin takes that Commander job himself. As for morale, an American GI in 1970 was quoted as saying
Quote:
We are the unwilling..... Being led by the unqualified..... To do the unneccessary..... For the ungrateful
I need convincing that anyone wanted this war except Putin, and I only have public utterances to go on in blaming him.

There's less arresting of JWs these days in Russia which is always good. We are classed as "Extremist" there and banned accordingly. It's a pretext.

Last edited by business_kid; 11-12-2022 at 03:31 PM.
 
Old 11-16-2022, 09:01 AM   #10
ntubski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by business_kid View Post
[*]Why is such a long time being talked about to repair that bridge to Crimea? etc.
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-15 says
Quote:
A Russian source reported that Russian officials elected to delay repairing the Kerch Strait rail bridge until summer or autumn 2023 as weather conditions are too dangerous to conduct the repairs and noted that one rail line is still usable.[72]
[...]
[72] https://t.me/rybar/41168; https://t.me/periskop_pacific/1598
Quote:
Originally Posted by business_kid View Post
Using drones as missiles is a waste.
My understanding is that both sides are using drones this way though (it's called a "loitering munition").
 
Old 11-21-2022, 08:22 AM   #11
Xeratul
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
"Truth is the first casualty of War."
what is it meaning exactly?
 
Old 11-21-2022, 10:10 AM   #12
uteck
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I was watching some stuff on YouTube, and if the translation is accurate, Putin said some time ago something like; Traditional warfare is over because of the threat of Nuclear war. So Russia only has to keep up the perception of having a strong army.
And until this year, they were perceived has having a strong army.
 
Old 11-21-2022, 10:12 AM   #13
sundialsvcs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xeratul View Post
what is it meaning exactly?
Very simply that: "when there is a war going on somewhere," do not "automatically believe" anything(!) that you hear or read from either side.

In fact, especially in these modern and highly-connected times, always remember PsyOps == Psychological Operations.

Also the Science of Propaganda, which, as you will see from this link, was well-known to ancient Sumarians:

Quote:
Originally Posted by from the 'Science of' article:
Throughout history in every era, among all peoples, propaganda was an essential part of every culture that ever existed. With the invention of the printing press and the explosion of written material from the 15th century forward, propaganda proliferated like never before. The art of fabrication and lies was taken out of the hands of the few scribes whose job that had been since the dawn of civilization and instead libel, defamation, and denigration was converted into a product churned out in an industrialized fashion, resulting in massive change and terrible harm.

The smears that fueled religious wars, the libels damning both Catholics and Protestants, the calumnies against Jews (a la the “Protocols of Zion,” for example), the “Black Legend” making out the Spanish as monsters—all that and much more was fueled by mass character assassination manufactured factory-style that would have astounded previous generations of prevaricators.

Nothing however accomplished by Renaissance propagandists can be considered as having occurred even on the same planet now with the digital revolution having propelled propaganda into the stratosphere and beyond. There is a new, bone-chilling and terrifying era at hand insofar as the business of misinformation, half-truths and party lines are concerned, and much like the pogroms, genocides and devastation unleashed by the printing press, this global speed of light information explosion, unless checked somehow, could certainly outdo the past in horror. (emphasis mine)
(Full disclosure: the second cited website is titled "The Times of Israel," and therefore inevitably "carries a bias," as do all available 'sources.'") 'Bias' cannot be avoided. And, in posting this quote to use as an example, I hereby proclaim that I do not subscribe to this bias and did not "select" this quote thereby. You can decide for yourself, now, whether I am a "closet Zionist ..."

Everyone, on both sides, who is "reporting" on any battle, or "discussing it" on social media, has an agenda. Consciously or unconsciously, they not only want to "tell you about" what happened, but they also want to influence "how you think" about what you just heard or read. You cannot change this reality. As was the case with generations before, you are forced to live within it, and to do with it as best you can. The key realization is simply to remember that "it is constantly happening." Therefore simply: "caveat reader."

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 11-21-2022 at 10:27 AM.
 
Old 11-21-2022, 12:08 PM   #14
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I don't know about you guys. But in a fight. The loser. If allowed. Walks away.

Nothing left to wonder about.
 
  


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