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Old 11-16-2020, 10:55 AM   #1
puppymagic
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Question NBC News - Moderna vaccine insists its vaccine is 94.5% effective...


I am really sorry to be negative but, no, I cannot be convinced that a vaccine which was developed within roughly 10 months, has efficacy of 94.5%

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-says-n1247888

I would have believed if Moderna / Pfizer have stated their products are 50~70% effective, after 5 years of development

But efficacy rate of over 90%, after 10ish months of development, does not sound realistic or believable.

The flu vaccine, which was developed 70 years ago, has efficacy rate of 40~70%

As of today we have no vaccine for SARS, MERS and AIDS
 
Old 11-16-2020, 03:47 PM   #2
boughtonp
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The SARS outbreak started November 2002 and Chinese researchers had a vaccine candidate ready for human trials by January 2004 - but the epidemic was contained by then and funding dried up, so they put it on ice.

If researchers can create a SARS-CoV-1 vaccine from scratch in 15 months, why don't you believe that the focused attention of every researcher in the world can come up with a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in a similar but slightly reduced period?


Quote:
Originally Posted by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Vaccine
According to research papers published in 2005 and 2006, the identification and development of novel vaccines and medicines to treat SARS was a priority for governments and public health agencies around the world.[27][28][29] In early 2004, an early clinical trial on volunteers was planned. A major researcher's 2016 request, however, demonstrated that no field-ready SARS vaccine had been completed because likely market-driven priorities had ended funding.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200217080053/https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/china-in-sars-vaccine-trial-50553
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091


Last edited by boughtonp; 11-16-2020 at 03:49 PM.
 
Old 11-16-2020, 05:47 PM   #3
ntubski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puppymagic View Post
But efficacy rate of over 90%, after 10ish months of development, does not sound realistic or believable.

The flu vaccine, which was developed 70 years ago, has efficacy rate of 40~70%
Influenza mutates so much that we need to develop a new vaccine every year. So it's not like this year's flu vaccine "was developed 70 years ago". To repeat myself from the other vaccine thread, current research shows covid mutates more slowly than influenza, e.g., https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6
Quote:
But sequencing data suggest that coronaviruses change more slowly than most other RNA viruses, probably because of a ‘proofreading’ enzyme that corrects potentially fatal copying mistakes. A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel, Switzerland.
 
Old 01-04-2021, 09:43 AM   #4
snowmagician
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boughtonp View Post
The SARS outbreak started November 2002 and Chinese researchers had a vaccine candidate ready for human trials by January 2004 - but the epidemic was contained by then and funding dried up, so they put it on ice.
Over 300 Chinese workers infected in Serbia

In early December, reports surfaced from Serbia that 300 out of 400 Chinese workers at the Tianjin Electric Power Construction Co., Ltd. (TEPC) project in Pancevo tested positive for COVID. According to RFA, this included a large number of Chinese employees who had been inoculated with the Sinopharm vaccine — but still became infected with the virus.

== SOURCE == https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4081311
 
Old 01-04-2021, 11:08 AM   #5
michaelk
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From what I have gathered...

Pfizer and Moderna used the mRNA research from 2002 to create their vaccines so they were not starting from scratch.

The US administration via Warp Speed provided billions of dollars to develop vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.

There were 100,000+ people that worked 24/7 to develop the vaccines. This is probably 100x more then with normal vaccine development.

There were 40,000+ people that volunteered to be infected by COVID19 to speed up phase 3 trials. This is another reason it took less time and why they know its efficacy is so good.

However, the early phase 3 trials did not include children and supposedly that should begin soon. How well the vaccine works in the elderly and other vulnerable groups as far as I know also has not been fully tested.
 
Old 01-04-2021, 11:09 AM   #6
DavidMcCann
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puppymagic View Post
As of today we have no vaccine for SARS, MERS and AIDS
We do have a vaccine for SARs. We don't need a vaccine for MERS as it's normally caught from camels. AIDS is a retrovirus, a very different beast.

I do wish uninformed people would stop spreading FUD, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
Old 01-04-2021, 11:20 AM   #7
boughtonp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snowmagician View Post
Over 300 Chinese workers infected in Serbia

In early December, reports surfaced from Serbia that 300 out of 400 Chinese workers at the Tianjin Electric Power Construction Co., Ltd. (TEPC) project in Pancevo tested positive for COVID. According to RFA, this included a large number of Chinese employees who had been inoculated with the Sinopharm vaccine — but still became infected with the virus.

== SOURCE == https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4081311
Not sure the relation of this to the quoted text?

Since Taiwan and China don't exactly get along, Taiwainese media is not necessarily an unbiased source for news about Chinese companies.

But taking it at face value, the report does include references to claims that the Sinopharm vaccine (presumably BBIBP-CorV) may have been administered incorrectly - so not necessarily a problem with the vaccine itself.

It also doesn't state when they received the vaccine. The AZD1222 vaccine (Oxford Uni+AstraZeneca) can apparently take 1-3 weeks to take effect; if BBIBP-CorV is similar then perhaps those infected were only recently vaccinated but assumed they were instantly immune and stopped taking appropriate precautions.

 
Old 01-04-2021, 05:03 PM   #8
ntubski
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snowmagician View Post
Hah, nice:
Quote:
You said that generally speaking, Chinese dispatched to the country have been given the vaccine and claimed direct knowledge of several people who had been vaccinated but still came down with the virus in Angola.

Quote:
The news agency contacted a Chinese woman in Angola surnamed You (尤)
 
  


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