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Old 10-06-2020, 05:01 PM   #1
teckk
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More Covid news


As many of you have probably already read, the WHO says that the number of people infected with Covid19 is probably 20 times the reported numbers.

That means that over 700 million people have been exposed to it if that is true. The good news, it seems to me, is that 19 out of 20 people who have/had it did not even know that they had it, or it was a non event.

I would think that those people would have a level of immunity to it now. But, they could be carriers.

What do you think/know?

Last edited by teckk; 10-06-2020 at 05:04 PM.
 
Old 10-06-2020, 05:15 PM   #2
boughtonp
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Do you have a direct link - I haven't seen that, and can't find it on the WHO website?

There's an Our World in Data page on the subject from August - they discuss several different models, which give different opinions on how much greater the numbers are, though disappointingly the graphs don't have the flexibility of their other stats.

 
Old 10-06-2020, 06:06 PM   #3
michaelk
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The WHO reported the estimate to be 10% of the world population i.e ~760 million. Herd immunity is about 70% of the population. The exact death count may also not be accurate due to low income or developing countries lacking the ability to accurately record health statistics.

The world meter for cases is ~36 million.

I don't know if the experts really know how long immunity will last.

Many news sites have reported, I have not found an article on the WHO website yet...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimam.../#6b15fd7a4430
 
Old 10-06-2020, 09:42 PM   #4
jefro
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There have been reports and the numbers vary on the amount of people who never show signs. In Sweden I read that they think their herd immunity issue is being foiled by some genetic resistance to the virus.

However many of those that have died still fall into the situation where they have some underlying condition that makes this either worse or deadly.

While there is no cure (at least known to the free world) there are some promising treatments that are being used on the right persons at the right time.

I'll say it again, 50 or so folks where I work have had it. Only one guy reported any extreme effects.
 
Old 10-07-2020, 04:10 AM   #5
hazel
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The whole concept of herd immunity was developed for diseases like smallpox and measles, which affect everyone who catches them in much the same way. For such diseases, the minimum herd immunity level is generally set at about 70%. Obviously higher is better.

But it doesn't make sense to talk in this way about a disease as many-faced as covid-19. Lots of people never seem to catch it or if they do, have no symptoms at all. Lots of people have mild symptoms. A fair number have a severe flu-like illness but then get better. Some end up with a chronic life-limiting condition. And some, a minority but still quite a large number in absolute terms, die. A herd immunity level of 70% of highly susceptible people would amount to a much lower level taken over the population as a whole. Experiences on board infected cruise liners suggest that the disease levels off at about 20%, which was also about the cumulative level of infection in London when it pulled out of the first wave in June.

There is a discussion document out recently on the UK policy for vaccination if and when we get a vaccine. I have read it and I must say it makes a lot of sense to me. Vaccination would be carried out selectively in tranches: tranche 1 would be workers and residents in care homes, because that's where most of the deaths are. Tranche 2 would be NHS workers and the over-80's. Other kinds of key workers and people in my age group would make up tranche 3. And so on down. That makes more sense than arguing about overall immunity levels.

Last edited by hazel; 10-07-2020 at 04:18 AM.
 
Old 10-07-2020, 07:29 PM   #6
jefro
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There may be super or long timer covid but I don't believe one could stay infected and have the great ability to spread it. (I hope not).


I was just pointing out that if there is some genetic resistance to this then the overall herd number could be well below the target of 70%. That 70% number would include those that might get it but not enough to even show on any test, might be those that were totally asymptomatic. If one was crazy I assume they could give very small amounts of covid to everyone and hope they all have time to build resistance.

I'm irritated that China showed photos of a massive crowd in Wuhan playing at a theme park with no masks, no social distancing. To me that makes me assume they have been given a vaccine. How China would know how to make one safe and fast would be a guess.

It is so rare that those under 40 suffer from this that it does make sense to target those most vulnerable. In war you'd only provide care to those that can get back to battle fastest. Unfortunately by making a choice to assign those who might get a vaccine may be a choice on who might die. I think anyone who lost a loved one would be mad if they found out some old geezer who didn't have a month to live got a vaccine. (don't flame me, just playing worst case)

Last edited by jefro; 10-07-2020 at 07:33 PM.
 
Old 10-08-2020, 04:11 AM   #7
hazel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
It is so rare that those under 40 suffer from this that it does make sense to target those most vulnerable. In war you'd only provide care to those that can get back to battle fastest. Unfortunately by making a choice to assign those who might get a vaccine may be a choice on who might die. I think anyone who lost a loved one would be mad if they found out some old geezer who didn't have a month to live got a vaccine. (don't flame me, just playing worst case)
Politics is precisely the art of assigning and distributing scarce resources (including money!). There is never enough for everyone, so choices have to be made. Gradually we have evolved rules of thumb about this. For example, better choices will probably be made, and certainly any choices made are more likely to be accepted as good ones, if there is maximum input by the population. That's why we have democratically elected governments. Oligarchies may be efficient, but any choices they make about who gets what will lack moral authority. Another principle is that we don't let a majority enforce the choice that is of maximum benefit to them if it means that minorities will suffer disproportionately. That's why simply locking old people up in solitary for good isn't a solution to covid.

The kind of choices jefro mentions are being made all the time and have nothing directly to do with the pandemic. In the UK, they are made by NICE, which actually puts a maximum value on human life and vetos treatments that are considered too expensive. In the US, they are made by the brutal realities of the market place. If you can't pay, you don't get. And yes, of course, those who lose out are furious. But whichever way we cut the cake, we can't satisfy everyone.
 
Old 10-10-2020, 09:34 AM   #8
hazel
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A new idea being floated in the UK is that people who self-isolate should get free access to Netflix and Amazon Prime. This would not only stop them going mad with boredom but would provide a positive incentive and reward for doing their duty.

Wouldn't work for me though! I have a monthly download limit.
 
Old 10-10-2020, 10:12 AM   #9
boughtonp
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Next step: The government must know your precise location at all times to verify your eligibility for the scheme.

To do this, they'll require always on high resolution location data from your mobile, and that of everyone in your contact list who might enter your residence. Anyone found outside not carrying their tracking devicemobile will be presumed infected and locked in solitary for two weeks.

 
Old 10-10-2020, 10:24 AM   #10
teckk
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Who's going to pay for that? I don't think that taxpayers should have to pay for their neighbors to watch tv. We already have to pay for them to have babies, raise them, school them, cloth them, feed them. Whether we like it or not. We are already taxed to the point of rebellion, and in debt over our heads.

I suppose you will say that the decrease in crime from people not being bored is worth it to society. I don't think that I should have to bribe people to not commit crime. Either don't commit crime or go to jail.

Netfilx/Amazon can't give that away for free. They have to make a profit to stay in business.

I can't imagine the motion picture association paying for that. They were suing people a while back for pirating DVD's.

Sounds wonderful, but someone has to pay for the handouts. If "government" could pay for that with profits from grain/produce/seafood/crop/mineral sales to another country perhaps.

Or I guess that the government could just "charge it" and kick the can down the road once again and add to a debt that isn't payable right now.

I've wondered for years now, what happens when a debt is so large that it is impossible to pay. The answer has to be some form of bankruptcy. What happens when a nation declares bankruptcy? War, seizing of assets, indentured servitude?
 
Old 10-10-2020, 10:48 AM   #11
hazel
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So what happened to Greece? The last I heard, creditors had to "take a haircut". In other words accept that some of the debt would never get paid and would have to be written off.
 
Old 10-10-2020, 12:20 PM   #12
GPGAgent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazel View Post
So what happened to Greece? The last I heard, creditors had to "take a haircut". In other words accept that some of the debt would never get paid and would have to be written off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haircut_(finance)
 
Old 10-10-2020, 02:33 PM   #13
ondoho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazel View Post
So what happened to Greece? The last I heard, creditors had to "take a haircut". In other words accept that some of the debt would never get paid and would have to be written off.
Happens with all sorts of debt, not only countries.
In fact, creditors are even interested in this sort of settlement, if the alternative is bankruptcy.
 
Old 10-10-2020, 05:09 PM   #14
enorbet
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So teckk, have you ever asked yourself how much you should owe the US for providing you and your family with a relatively safe and prosperous environment? Then, have you asked how much the US owes you for your part in The Social Contract? Is it balanced? How well would whatever line of work you are engaged in for a living do if it was instead located in Kenya, or Russia, China or Peru, etc. etc. etc.? Just wondering...
 
Old 10-10-2020, 05:29 PM   #15
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It's a mess.

Currently in Travis County they are offering a study for remdesivir. They are looking for average section of people to be administered without covid. That company that makes the drug is offering 400 million doses to the EU so I guess the few billion the US has spent to drug companies is starting to help (hopefully).

Austin/Round Rock area is doing pretty good against this menace. Most folks are at work and I assume that those who haven't worked since January are in deep dodo by now. The tents under bridges are numerous. The need is greater than ever for things like Salvation Army.
 
  


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