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Old 09-28-2017, 04:44 PM   #16
enorbet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
The earths core is a nuclear powered ocean that also affects the magnetic poles. Has nothing to do with nuclear electric generation. Nuclear powered electric is possibly the only green thing way to make electricity short of the thermal solar steam generators. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...f-earths-heat/
While it is true that polarity is affected by our internal nuclear engine, afaik there is no link to climate and certainly not one to explain the ice melting observable from Space.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
The wings of a butterfly means that the weather in the US can be affected by the wings of a butterfly in China.
The Butterfly Effect at it's base is a true (if nebulous) statement but requires considerable time for "small causes to have large effects". It is a progression and by nature dependent upon an extreme number of variables at that initial stage. It is far more productive and accurate to note larger causes further down the progression line. If that weren't true every butterfly wing flap would cause a hurricane or tornado. We are talking about Chaos Theory at that early stage, a non-linear setting, but "further downstream" after every single drop of water that didn't get consumed by animals or evaporation manages to join into, say a creek, the source for a river can easily be identified and mapped.

Since climate records can and have been collected from over millions of years (in oceans, tree rings, geological items, ice sheets, etc.) these 'creeks" are well identified and understood and that understanding is growing extremely rapidly now due to the cumulative effect of Science and Technology AND driven harder exactly because of the very real perceived threat of human caused global climate change. It serves no purpose to attempt to "muddy the waters" with minor details when larger details are so evident.

Here's a specific quote from the wiki on the concept of Butterfly Effect
Quote:
Originally Posted by wikipedia and noted experts
In weather

The butterfly effect is most familiar in terms of weather; it can easily be demonstrated in standard weather prediction models, for example. The climate scientists James Annan and William Connolley explain that chaos is important in the development of weather prediction methods; models are sensitive to initial conditions. They add the caveat: "Of course the existence of an unknown butterfly flapping its wings has no direct bearing on weather forecasts, since it will take far too long for such a small perturbation to grow to a significant size, and we have many more immediate uncertainties to worry about. So the direct impact of this phenomenon on weather prediction is often somewhat overstated."[20]
Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
I tend to not believe the so called scientists. Aren't they the ones who pushed asbestos and MTBE and GMO's and introduced invasive species and so on and so forth? I doubt they are qualified to say what is causing anything.
No that is not so. The "push" came from corporations in business to sell goods who hired "experts", often whose findings were biased, slanted or edited as in "spin doctoring" in order to either be convincing or blur the issue to minimize rebuttal. This is similar to a case in court where both the Prosecution and the Defense hire "experts" (NOT generally Research Scientists) to present a one-sided argument hopefully to sway a judge and jury. This is not Science. This is salesmanship.

In real Science any claims must undergo unimaginable scrutiny in peer review and the case is never closed. There are no sellers or buyers demographics. The aim is not so near-sighted nor directed. At it's most mundane, a scientist's goal is to be recognized as an important player if not an expert in long-term understanding of reality.

Specifically in the area of the study of such things as climate/weather much of the study is done by Pure Science, little or no monetary recompense, often college students (I habituate a Physics Forum where a few of these college students were invited on the team that was involved in the film and other documentation displayed in the film "Chasing Ice" but also submitted for peer review to scholarly publications). It is called Pure Science because the motivation and the goal are one and the same - to understand better.

I find your statement "I doubt they are qualified to say what is causing anything" to be at least inconsistent and subjectively selective or at worst your own spin doctoring aimed at supporting what you prefer and denouncing what you do not, just like those corporations that promote data that does or seems to support their aims and suppress any that conflicts.

I'd be willing to bet you trust that the friction in your brakes will cause your automobile to stop in time to avoid death. The very fact that you use a computer to communicate here is evidence that you trust Science and Technology even if it is used to denigrate that Science. That, jefro, is something of a conundrum, even contradiction in terms, don't you think?
 
Old 09-29-2017, 08:12 AM   #17
ondoho
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sure, global warming is just "communist propaganda"...
(that was a joke!)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global...fic_discussion

Quote:
The scientific consensus as of 2013 stated in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that it "is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century". A 2008 report by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences stated that most scientists by then agreed that observed warming in recent decades was primarily caused by human activities increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
etc.

20, 30 years ago this was maybe still up for discussion, but anyone who still doesn't accept it ... ah well, better leave that unsaid.
of course you can dismiss almost anything with such an insanely broad statement as "i don't believe the so-called scientists"...

Last edited by ondoho; 09-29-2017 at 08:13 AM.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 09:18 AM   #18
jamison20000e
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Question

Riddle me this; are we just a phase, a trigger set in motion to propagate further stars like seeds falling*

or fadeaway...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_NASA
Fe26-E,e: https://www.wired.com/2010/12/corpor...ward-position/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_(moon) &sea

Last edited by jamison20000e; 09-29-2017 at 09:22 AM.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 04:36 PM   #19
enorbet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jamison20000e View Post
Riddle me this; are we just a phase, a trigger set in motion to propagate further stars like seeds falling*

or fadeaway...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_NASA
Fe26-E,e: https://www.wired.com/2010/12/corpor...ward-position/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titan_(moon) &sea
Not only moot, since in time the entire earth will be fed to our Sun by natural forces at play since birth, but also not the only two possibilities since it is at least fractionally possible that Homo Sapiens will become space faring and not locked on one rock. The budget for NASA dwindling is beginning to be countered by a vast increase in private enterprise ventures in space. The numbers are astounding. It's becoming a huge profit center and, as we all know and Cindy Lauper sang, "Money changes everything".
 
Old 09-29-2017, 08:16 PM   #20
jefro
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Not sure about the weather guessers in your area but mine are not very good at predicting the weather. I tend to call them as I live west of the town and tell them it's raining.
Is it the butterfly or is it the billion of things that may affect weather that they are as of yet unable to master? You do realize that the phrase about the butterfly isn't not to be taken literally don't you? It is a concept.

I have never said that mankind is not part of the problem. The simple solution is to get rid of all humans if one wishes to save the earth. That may or may not correct the weather.
 
Old 09-29-2017, 10:17 PM   #21
rokytnji
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I pay attention to the Farmers Almanac for my area. Kinda like/enjoying this global warming locally lately. Since it is always/usually tooooooooo freaking hot/dry here for most humans and animals. The wild animals live underground by day. Come out at night when it is cooler. The gulf of mexico is my friend, lately.

Code:
               Overcastome 
      .--.     64 F          
   .-(    ).   ↙ 8 mph        
  (___.__)__)  6 mi           
               0.0 in         
                                                       ┌─────────────┐                                                       
┌──────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────┤  Fri 29 Sep ├───────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────┐
│            Morning           │             Noon      └──────┬──────┘     Evening           │             Night            │
├──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┤
│               Overcast       │               Overcast       │               Overcast       │               Overcast       │
│      .--.     62 F          │      .--.     64 F          │      .--.     66 F          │      .--.     64 F          │
│   .-(    ).   ← 8-16 mph     │   .-(    ).   ↙ 10-14 mph    │   .-(    ).   ↙ 8-13 mph     │   .-(    ).   ← 8-13 mph     │
│  (___.__)__)  10 mi          │  (___.__)__)  11 mi          │  (___.__)__)  11 mi          │  (___.__)__)  11 mi          │
│               0.0 in | 0%    │               0.0 in | 0%    │               0.0 in | 0%    │               0.0 in | 0%    │
└──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┘
                                                       ┌─────────────┐                                                       
┌──────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────┤  Sat 30 Sep ├───────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────┐
│            Morning           │             Noon      └──────┬──────┘     Evening           │             Night            │
├──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┤
│               Mist           │               Overcast       │      .-.      Moderate rain  │      .-.      Light rain     │
│  _ - _ - _ -  62 F          │      .--.     64 F          │     (   ).    62 F          │     (   ).    62 F          │
│   _ - _ - _   ← 7-14 mph     │   .-(    ).   ← 8-16 mph     │    (___(__)   ↖ 8-21 mph     │    (___(__)   ↖ 7-21 mph     │
│  _ - _ - _ -  11 mi          │  (___.__)__)  11 mi          │   ‚‘‚‘‚‘‚‘    11 mi          │     ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘   11 mi          │
│               0.0 in | 0%    │               0.0 in | 0%    │   ‚’‚’‚’‚’    0.1 in | 0%    │    ‘ ‘ ‘ ‘    0.0 in | 0%    │
└──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┘
                                                       ┌─────────────┐                                                       
┌──────────────────────────────┬───────────────────────┤  Sun 01 Oct ├───────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────┐
│            Morning           │             Noon      └──────┬──────┘     Evening           │             Night            │
├──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────┤
│               Mist           │               Mist           │     \   /     Sunny          │     \   /     Clear          │
│  _ - _ - _ -  60 F          │  _ - _ - _ -  64 F          │      .-.      77-80 F       │      .-.      73-77 F       │
│   _ - _ - _   ↖ 1-8 mph      │   _ - _ - _   ← 1-4 mph      │   ― (   ) ―   ↖ 8-9 mph      │   ― (   ) ―   ↖ 9-24 mph     │
│  _ - _ - _ -  12 mi          │  _ - _ - _ -  12 mi          │      `-’      11 mi          │      `-’      12 mi          │
│               0.0 in | 0%    │               0.0 in | 0%    │     /   \     0.0 in | 0%    │     /   \     0.0 in | 0%    │
└──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┘
Since Russia has a gazillion ice breakers while we have only a few? I wonder who is gonna own what?

I don't over think what is gonna happen 100 years from now.
Because I will become moot myself by then.
Somebody else will have to the heavy lifting.
Probably cussing out my generation as they do so.
Religious and Atheists alike.

So drinking a beer and watching Lulu's < my female pitbull > doing her dance in 3 inches of water outside of my motorcycle shop, prancing around in the parking lot. Because in her short life so far. All she has endured is 100 + F temps.

Last edited by rokytnji; 09-29-2017 at 10:20 PM.
 
Old 09-30-2017, 03:26 AM   #22
ondoho
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the term "Global warming" is probably scientifically correct, but still misleading to the "man in the street".
it does not necessarily always mean warmer weather; globally and over time maybe, yes, but locally the weather just becomes weirder, more storms, more atypical weather (warm winters, cold summers).
 
Old 09-30-2017, 06:05 AM   #23
enorbet
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
Not sure about the weather guessers in your area but mine are not very good at predicting the weather. I tend to call them as I live west of the town and tell them it's raining.
Is it the butterfly or is it the billion of things that may affect weather that they are as of yet unable to master? You do realize that the phrase about the butterfly isn't not to be taken literally don't you? It is a concept.

I have never said that mankind is not part of the problem. The simple solution is to get rid of all humans if one wishes to save the earth. That may or may not correct the weather.
There is vast difference between a guess and a calculation. In the case of weather prediction, as I stated, it is most accurate on larger scales. It can be easily predicted that a hurricane will arrive in, say, the Gulf or the East Coast with utmost accuracy. It has become trivial to predict when it will "landafll". Whether the exact location of that landfall is your town or the one a few miles away is a bit cloudier.

In the realm of global climate, predicting when some tipping point will occur that will initiate a massive change is extremely difficult for the reasons you mention BUT that we are on a progression that gets there is certain.

Of course I realize the Butterfly Effect is a thought exercize displaying a basic concept. As I stated (and it states) "small causes can have large effects" but the quote I posted points out there is a qualifier to be added - "if you go back far enough". It in no way promotes a concept that a small cause today will necessarily have an identical effect tomorrow or that all is so chaotic that nothing can be known or accurately predicted. To write off all scientists as "readers of tea leaves" or coin tossers is either ignorant or self-serving or both.

The Earth is not at risk from us. It is we who are at risk from the Earth and the folly of our past ways. Whether or not we will grow up in time remains to be seen.
 
  


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