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Old 05-01-2017, 02:34 PM   #16
linux4evr5581
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I think if they were use a nuclear weapon then all bets would be off...
 
Old 05-01-2017, 02:47 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by linux4evr5581 View Post
I think if they were use a nuclear weapon then all bets would be off...
Yes and I have considerable confidence that anyone on Planet Earth in that sabre rattling game knows that. As mad as it is, MAD works.
 
Old 05-01-2017, 03:04 PM   #18
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Yep and I think only China has the power to deescalate the issue, as their the only one that they would actually listen to..

Last edited by linux4evr5581; 05-01-2017 at 03:49 PM.
 
Old 05-01-2017, 07:06 PM   #19
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... but the world response should not "automatically be 'War.'"

After all, "War" is what this regime expects. They have conditioned their people for generations to assume that they are going to be attacked – and then (of course) to "march on to Glorious Victory.™" Give 'em "war," and you've just given 'em what they want.

You've also reinforced the idea that North Korea is cornered, which is also something that these madmen have always been saying. An animal that has been led to believe that it is "trapped inside a box surrounded by enemies" will never consider that it can ... open the box, and step out into an entirely different situation.

(Try to imagine living with such a lie since the day you were born.)

Yes, absolutely, you must [first ...] "neutralize the immediate threat." Turn every single one of those launch-sites into magma ... but do so as selectively as you can, with minimal(!) loss-of-life. And, actually do so only if you have no other choice. (You hold all the trump-cards in this game. Play them well.)

But then – start scooping out something that the regime never taught their people to expect, and start plopping it out onto the people's heads in a way that the regime can't make them not see. Things like, say, "Mercy." "Hope." That the Korean peninsula can be reunited if its people(!) wish it to be, and that in any case the people in the northern half can "rejoin the rest of the world." Albeit without(!) their present tyrannical and dangerous so-called government, which the World will not accept.

"The people in the northern half of the Korean peninsula" are not 'the problem.' They are 'the victims.'" They have done nothing. They do not deserve to die.

"The regime," possibly consisting of only a few hundred people in total, is 'the problem.'

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-01-2017 at 07:13 PM.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 01:19 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
And, the people who surround them have weapons that do work.

However – diplomacy is in order. The people of North Korea have lived in hell for much too long.
thank you for your wise words.

again i'm reminded of the much younger Kim Jong Un & Donald Trump wrestling - I wonder who would win? Porbably D. Trump, because he has aides...
 
Old 05-02-2017, 07:55 AM   #21
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The little boy reminds me in some weird way of Elvis Presley: someone who was surrounded by his "handlers" until the day he died, so that he never really got to live. Likewise, I think that this young man's heart is not in his very strange "job." But he is surrounded by people who have based their evil lives – and, their evil power – on an unfinished war.

Korea is going to have to be finished. But, not by war. I think that the peninsula should be reunited, and the DMZ should be preserved as the wild nature-preserve that it has become ... and as a memorial to human folly.

The North Koreans have been isolated from the world community and told that nobody wants them to be a part of it. They can't escape the regime in which they find themselves trapped. And, I think, many people within that regime (such as, perhaps, our little boy) are trapped within it, too. Can you imagine spending your entire life in a jungle machine-gun emplacement, waiting for an attack that will never come? What if World War 1 had been "put on pause," and you lived in a trench ... a hundred years later?

This more-or-less is how these people have been forced to live. And, if we went to war with them again, it would only confirm to them that their leaders were right all along. I think that's precisely why those leaders want to provoke war. They care nothing for the people of their country; only for themselves and their evil (but, utterly pointless ...) designs.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-02-2017 at 07:59 AM.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 05:30 PM   #22
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Like an itch, I just have to scratch now:

It is unlikely that the Korean War could go hot (remember it was never really 'over'). While the US still prefers to 'handle' things themselves - my is that China is still key here and here is why.

First we can still be sure that China does not want a crisis on their own border - and undoubtedly all parties(at least ROK, US, and PRC) would prefer keeping the status quo on the peninsula, however this time China can be coaxed into taking a more hard line on the DPRK. Right now the PRC not only is an economic power (although maybe could just as well be a paper tiger in real power), but there are at least 2 reasons why China might consider either acting against, or turning a blind eye and letting the DPRK effectively collapse on it's own.

The first obvious reason is economic: Everybody knows that while they are propping up the Kim Dynasty - in return the PRC is not really getting anything out of it - sure there is a buffer zone, but it is becoming more troublesome actually. China's focus and attention are now it's own economic successes and relations with other countries which perfectly transitions to the second reason: Image.

Since the PRC is much more prominent upon the world stage, both economically and diplomatically - the DPRK is becoming more and more dead weight. As stated economically, the PRC is not benefiting at all, but the most important thing is that the antics of the latest Kim, is beginning to weigh rather heavily on them, and that might be the Ace in the hole. Image and mostly prestige seems to be rather big in Asian cultures, so now the DPRK is becoming more and more of an embarrassment. Also I would think this is very significant:

Quote:
http://us.blastingnews.com/news/2017...001622035.html

China stops buying coal from North Korea, buys from the United States instead

According to Fox News, the Chinese have turned back a fleet of North Korean freighters filled with coking coal, used to make steel, the one export that the Pyongyang regime has to sustain itself. At the same time, China closed an order for coal from the #United States. The decisions represent Beijing’s joining the world community in punishing #North Korea for its drive to build missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the American homeland.
Quote:
https://www.rt.com/business/384334-n...ea-china-coal/

A fleet of North Korean cargo ships laden with coal is returning to their home port of Nampo after China ordered its trading companies to refuse the shipments, Reuters reports quoting shipping data.
This is very significant since that is one less source of trade (albeit one way anyways). It might also just be a symbolic gesture, but that may be enough and again a good strategy. China doesn't have to get coal from the US, but that obviously does not mean they have to get it from the DPRK; which again goes back to the DPRK being more of a burden. The PRC is very busy building infrastructure (or some would argue trying their hand at colonialism) in Africa. Obviously they can get minerals from there as well, and in much greater quantity; so really what would be the point of the DPRK still existing for the PRC? A buffer zone? Yes perhaps, but one that is pretty much a black hole of money, since the DPRK is not giving anything in return. So again that is the key, if more nations would use this tact, it might speed things along. Of course the only problem is how things will go before the DPRK outright collapses. Like any cornered and wounded animal, it could very well try to lash out as one final act of defiance.

This is an 1+hr video but rather interesting discussion and historical background:

The Horrible Truth About North Korea | Michael Malice and Stefan Molyneux

Last edited by Jeebizz; 05-02-2017 at 07:29 PM.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 07:25 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebizz View Post
So again that is the key, if more nations would us this tact, it might speed things along. Of course the only problem is how things will go before the DPRK outright collapses. Like any cornered and wounded animal, it could very well try to lash out as one final act of defiance.
I'm quite sure that those missile installations are under 24/7/365 surveillance and the cruise-missiles (from both East and West) are on standby. If there is any military "act of defiance," it would be neutralized before it began. "We have the technology."

But this is going to require diplomacy. Give the existing regime an honorable(?) way out, but get them out! Meanwhile, preserve (and rescue) the people, who are the real victims here.

This regime was born of war, and it dreams of war. But, the people of the country do not deserve to die. It would be the wrong thing to do to allow(!) a war to (re)start here.

China should be clearly seen working with other nations in a unified plan to remove this evil regime, and I think that NK should be calmly told exactly what that plan is. It should be made matter-of-fact clear that the world community, which possesses clearly-superior force (and, determination) in every compass direction, is not going to tolerate what is going on.

It should be made clear also that the world likewise clearly distinguishes between the people of the country and the regime that is presently controlling it. (The people of NK have done no wrong: they are too busy trying to survive.) The world community will help them in an immediate and tangible way. As America did with Japan, their industries will be rebuilt. If they wish to be re-united with the South, to create once more a single country called "Korea" with a UN World Heritage Site in the middle, this will be done. (That choice will be theirs to make ... maybe a few years from now.) In any case, the nightmare will be over.

The regime should be very calmly told that the "glorious war" they covet isn't going to happen, and that the world will no longer tolerate them remaining in power. They are invited to get the fsck out "hand over the car keys and leave very quietly. Now. No harm will come to you if you surrender. You will be regarded as a deposed former head-of-state, not a criminal. But your days of being in control of this region of the planet are finished, and you have no choice in the matter.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-02-2017 at 07:36 PM.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 07:58 PM   #24
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USA might have real strategic interests in potentially destabilizing on medium/long-term Asia to lower/limit their export capabilities/reliability and/or to lower their outsourcing attractiveness?
On the other hand the same could be said for Europe, which as much as I know hasn't done anything at all, maybe because of elections + usual indeterminism + being busy computing how much it would cost UK to get out of the kind-of-compulsory-eu-club (I'm swiss...).

What I don't understand at all is why "Kim Jong-un" is doing what (we're told) he's doing.
Especially now that (from what I read) the population was enjoying more liberty (kind of partial free black-market) and was improving the living standards.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 08:27 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pearlseattle View Post
USA might have real strategic interests in potentially destabilizing on medium/long-term Asia to lower/limit their export capabilities/reliability and/or to lower their outsourcing attractiveness?
On the other hand the same could be said for Europe, which as much as I know hasn't done anything at all, maybe because of elections + usual indeterminism + being busy computing how much it would cost UK to get out of the kind-of-compulsory-eu-club (I'm swiss...).
... and world affairs are not really a game of Chess. And, if anything can be predicted of [our ...] current President, the USA is no longer seeking "outsourcing attractiveness."

Quote:
What I don't understand at all is why "Kim Jong-un" is doing what (we're told) he's doing.
My actual guess is that he is "his father's son." But, he himself was born a full generation beyond "this unfinished 1950's conflict" that still, at the present time, defines their 'nation.' I perceive him to be someone who is forced to be playing a role. It doesn't make sense, and I do not believe that he is acting independently.

Face it: the actual reason for there to be a "North" vs. "South" "Korea" is ... dying off!

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-02-2017 at 08:29 PM.
 
Old 05-02-2017, 08:43 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
I'm quite sure that those missile installations are under 24/7/365 surveillance and the cruise-missiles (from both East and West) are on standby. If there is any military "act of defiance," it would be neutralized before it began. "We have the technology."
The missiles are NOT the problem if the fighting would resume outright. The main problem is the artillery aimed at Seoul as well as some could most likely be laced with either a chemical or biological agent. The DPRK WILL get in a few very devastating hits to Seoul and possibly Japan before being overrun.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
But this is going to require diplomacy. Give the existing regime an honorable(?) way out, but get them out! Meanwhile, preserve (and rescue) the people, who are the real victims here.
Yes diplomacy with the involvement and emphasis with China. As stated before, China's ambitions are changing and the DPRK more and more in the longer term will just hold them back, so eventually China will have to be the one to also put her foot down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
China should be clearly seen working with other nations in a unified plan to remove this evil regime, and I think that NK should be calmly told exactly what that plan is. It should be made matter-of-fact clear that the world community, which possesses clearly-superior force (and, determination) in every compass direction, is not going to tolerate what is going on.
That is correct but I know I am repeating myself and I am sorry, but that is also where China comes in, they are vital.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
It should be made clear also that the world likewise clearly distinguishes between the people of the country and the regime that is presently controlling it. (The people of NK have done no wrong: they are too busy trying to survive.) The world community will help them in an immediate and tangible way. As America did with Japan, their industries will be rebuilt. If they wish to be re-united with the South, to create once more a single country called "Korea" with a UN World Heritage Site in the middle, this will be done. (That choice will be theirs to make ... maybe a few years from now.) In any case, the nightmare will be over.

The regime should be very calmly told that the "glorious war" they covet isn't going to happen, and that the world will no longer tolerate them remaining in power. They are invited to get the fsck out "hand over the car keys and leave very quietly. Now. No harm will come to you if you surrender. You will be regarded as a deposed former head-of-state, not a criminal. But your days of being in control of this region of the planet are finished, and you have no choice in the matter.
Well I wish to expand on that with another thought; the collapse of the Kim Dynasty is all well and good for a so-called good ending - but the nightmare will continue on and the epilogue of the story is de-Kimification of the population. This will not be as say easy as de-Nazification post WWII or de-Stalinization after his death. Actually I think it could be much more difficult. Think of it this way - post Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev did a speech at Twentieth Congress of the Communist Party, 1956 - and his speech outright denounced Stalin; the result most were in uproar in disbelief and some died of a heart attack because of it.

Now that may seem comical now; but this could very well apply on a much larger scale. We would definitely like to think that everyone right now in the DPRK would wish for the regime to fsck off and die somewhere, and of course there is; plus those who are lucky enough to successfully defect. However, the variable not considered is that there will still be those not just so much from the government, but populace itself - could react unpredictably; especially if the first thing they see is a US serviceman - let alone another Korean from the South. If the say the US and ROK go in to overthrow the DPRK and say China just willingly stays out; the problem even after hostilities are over will be the sheer shock to the populace, remember they(North Koreans) weren't even legally allowed to leave, let alone go to the PRC which we can all agree is much more free and less brutal.

So while just outright toppling the regime seems like the only best way, perhaps in this case maybe just ripping the band aid so-to-speak may not be the best way to go. This will most likely be seen popular, and rather nuts but this perhaps may be a possible option here are my - then feel free to flame and refute my dumb idea, but I think it is worth considering:

Since outright toppling of the Kim Dynasty and forced re-unification done by the South would not be easy, and probably have hold overs + those who have the ideology of Juche so ingrained, it could be rather problematic. Obviously it would not make any sense for the ROK to crackdown on the very people they came to liberate; and again using the example of Khruschev - it could be a massive scale of chaos, not only the newly liberated populace could act out in very dangerous ways still to the ROK forces, they could just dig in. The story of the lone Japanese soldier in the Philippines comes to mind, still fighting the war; until the 1970s, when finally convinced it had ended 30 years before. That is what the ROK will be dealing with, such psychological conditioning on a much more massive scale.

Ok so what would be the solution to this sort of problem then? Unfortunately unification would have to be delayed perhaps because of this unfortunately; and first the North might benefit from transitioning first to a more mixed Chinese style model; yea still perhaps a 'commie' regime, but still a step down from what was in place before, basically what I am getting at is a gradual reduction, as if being weened off the current system. Yes, this would delay reunification; or maybe The Ministry of Unification(ROK) most likely already have thought of such a scenario and some kind of contingency plan for that. Again I could be completely wrong about the 'weening off' theory, and it is just my theory but at least we can all agree that the end of the Kim Dynasty and end of the DPRK as an entity, is only part of the bigger picture.

Now, two other variables are Japan and Russia. Russia has moved some forces recently in their far eastern territories but are on stand by, so it is likely they will just make sure their side of the fence is secure. Japan on the other hand while they seem to be slowly scrapping their pacifism and somewhat re-arming; would do better in still not getting involved at all, unless attacked. Remember ROK and Japan aren't exactly seeing eye-to-eye either on not only during the second World War, but stretching back further when Japan annexed the entire peninsula, until they were forced to relinquish Korea after the end of WWII - which in tern we know the rest of the story - as Korea was the spoils of war (but never actually a willing combatant) - it was carved between the bigger forces. Any involvement from Japan would be unnecessary and would only complicate matters further.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Pearlseattle View Post
USA might have real strategic interests in potentially destabilizing on medium/long-term Asia to lower/limit their export capabilities/reliability and/or to lower their outsourcing attractiveness?
On the other hand the same could be said for Europe, which as much as I know hasn't done anything at all, maybe because of elections + usual indeterminism + being busy computing how much it would cost UK to get out of the kind-of-compulsory-eu-club (I'm swiss...).
This is completely different, since the Korean War has been just on pause for a while. It has got to end sometime, but the stakes are very high this time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pearlseattle View Post
What I don't understand at all is why "Kim Jong-un" is doing what (we're told) he's doing.
Especially now that (from what I read) the population was enjoying more liberty (kind of partial free black-market) and was improving the living standards.
You have the wrong idea. Everyone expected after Kim Jong Il died, Kim Jong Un would usher in some kind of reforms - because it was thought that his education and life abroad would help influence him in being more open, and toning down the Juche policy, well obviously it has not and he (Kim Jong Un) has shown that he is even MORE authoritarian and brutal by the purges carried out during the first years beginning his reign of terror. As for the black-markets - that is only 'tolerated' because those who are able to run such markets, are able to bribe border guards, for goods to come in from China - as well as the police force so that such markets throughout a village and even in Pyongyang can operate. Essentially microcosms of capitalism in it's basic primitive form.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
... and world affairs are not really a game of Chess. And, if anything can be predicted of [our ...] current President, the USA is no longer seeking "outsourcing attractiveness."
Well actually it is unfortunately - because it is an apt comparison. The problem is that the US hasn't really been the best at Chess, and was always using more of a strategy of Checkers, while the rest of the world plays Chess - perhaps that is why US policies are more often than not, a blunder.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sundialsvcs View Post
My actual guess is that he is "his father's son." But, he himself was born a full generation beyond "this unfinished 1950's conflict" that still, at the present time, defines their 'nation.' I perceive him to be someone who is forced to be playing a role. It doesn't make sense, and I do not believe that he is acting independently.

Face it: the actual reason for there to be a "North" vs. "South" "Korea" is ... dying off!
Well the only reason I have to disagree is because of his 'actions' after taking over the family racket. I do not think he was told to issue any orders, it is likely he by his own volition issued orders to start a purge, i.e. killing his uncle, and ordering of an official's death by using artillery as a means of execution. You are correct though, the concept of North/South is dying - but as I pointed out earlier in this very post - reunification is going to be long, complicated and just as painful if not even more; and I still stand by my statement that China is the key to this; much to the chagrin of the US, and also an irony overall since China would be the one to play the role in reunification of the peninsula but under the ROK.

Last edited by Jeebizz; 05-02-2017 at 08:47 PM.
 
Old 05-03-2017, 08:43 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebizz View Post
The missiles are NOT the problem if the fighting would resume outright. The main problem is the artillery aimed at Seoul as well as some could most likely be laced with either a chemical or biological agent. The DPRK WILL get in a few very devastating hits to Seoul and possibly Japan before being overrun.
Not a chance. If someone is seen on-sattelite standing around those missiles, in go the Tomahawks until there's nothing left of the launch facilities. It's okay to let them play with missiles as long as you know they're rigged to blow-up on the launch pad. But, if they actually pose a threat to Japan or anyone else, that threat will be ... neutralized.

I think that the present "little boy" actually has no power or influence upon his government at all. He is surrounded by despotic old men who were young men when the Korean war was frozen. They've been stewing in their hatred and envy ever since. But also their relative impotence.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-03-2017 at 08:45 AM.
 
Old 05-03-2017, 11:41 AM   #28
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Seoul will still face very significant destruction initially from artillery of the North still.
 
Old 05-03-2017, 01:43 PM   #29
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RT Crosstalk - North Korea Saga
Quote:
Published on Apr 28, 2017

We have heard it all before – all options are on the table – and of course, that means the use of force. This time North Korea is in the crosshairs. The usual bellicose language is used and threats are made. What is missing is diplomacy.
CrossTalking with James Bradley, Ken O’Keefe, and Mohammad Marandi.
 
Old 05-03-2017, 03:37 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeebizz View Post
Seoul will still face very significant destruction initially from artillery of the North still.
What? You've never heard of an American nuclear submarine? You'll never find 'em ... but they can blast-off a cruise missile or other weapon from underwater. Lock in the coordinates of those artillery pieces, before they fire, and say g'bye to whoever and whatever's there. I'm quite sure we've already made it our business to know exactly what and where they are.

If we don't war, but they do, I'm quite sure that the capability exists to deny them their fantasy of a glorious end.

Last edited by sundialsvcs; 05-03-2017 at 03:39 PM.
 
  


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