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Old 07-23-2017, 05:22 PM   #1
TheStr3ak5
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Do you think GNU/Linux will be remplaced, or it will survive?


Who better to think about the future of Linux than this forum. Well, I would want to ask you all, you think Linux will survive in the time? I mean, you think GNU/Linux will stay with us forever or Linux will be replaced with a new project from another person that will change the world that we know, just as Linus Torvalds did. I personally think that Linux is good, very good, the good enough to last around 10 years more surviving with upgrades and patches, but after that 10 years barrier, Linux will need to change dramatically to survive against the new kernel architectures that will appear, like new exokernels or something like that, only god (if you believe in him) know the end of this matchup. What do you think? How much the Linux project will survive?
 
Old 07-23-2017, 08:03 PM   #2
frankbell
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During its history, GNU/Linux has shown far more ability to adapt to different platforms and architectures. In contrast, the maintainers of the other two major operating system have shown minimal interest in doing so--they have done so only when a new platform (smartphones, tablets) have come along and they have felt a need to compete in those ares.

Here's the list of supported architectures from the Debian download page:

Quote:
amd64, arm64, armel, armhf, i386, mips64el, mipsel, ppc64el, and s390x
The list at the FreeBSD page is, if anything, more impressive, as it includes sparc and they are working on xbox.

I think *nix has demonstrated an impressive track record of adaptability.
 
Old 07-25-2017, 07:17 AM   #3
Jjanel
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Thrive. The 'cloud' is mostly *nix. Nuta*nix (here with Google as an example)
OpenSource (basically GNU) 'rules' in the top Tech companies. (+Linux kernel)

When Google/? buys Canonical/RH (Ubuntu/RHEL), M$ will declare bankruptcy
Esp. when M$ employees realize that their Tesla, FB/Tweets, Netflix, Amazon, ... all Linux.

Last edited by Jjanel; 07-25-2017 at 07:23 AM.
 
Old 07-25-2017, 07:34 AM   #4
rokytnji
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Funny you think or mention that.
 
Old 07-25-2017, 10:00 AM   #5
enorbet
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My bets are all placed on survival exactly because of Open Source. Most advancements that are lost are lost because they were secret. There are lots of things that will likely be lost because of the perversion of Copyright and Patent Law but Linux isn't one of them. I think the ease and proliferation of niche distros is a strong indicator of the truth in that.
 
Old 07-25-2017, 10:46 AM   #6
sundialsvcs
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Well, as this article in the Seattle Times indicates, it might all become a moot point, if a Federal Court decides that Linux infringes upon key Microsoft patents!
 
Old 07-31-2017, 07:41 PM   #7
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I think its future looks pretty good. It has never been more capable, versatile, or user-friendly than it is now, and the growth of tablets, smartphones, and other internet appliances will cause the general-purpose machines we used to call "micrcomputers" to increasingly become enthusiast devices for nerds (which will mean much higher prices). Someone willing to put down $1000+ on a desktop computer because he or she specifically wants a powerful, customizable, fully controllable computer is much more likely to consider installing Linux than John Q. Public buying his first eMachines in 1999. In the future I think Windows' last trump cards will be vendor lock-in to Windows-only business software suites, and the AAA games industry, which is run by very conservative business types who would see Linux as exposing their extremely expensive to develop games (at this point, we're talking hundreds of millions per game) to piracy. Also don't forget Linux itself lurks inside every Android device in existence.

Computer technology that has a large installed base doesn't just disappear. They are adapted to new technology one way or another. The x86 family of architectures is 40 years old, and the IBM PC platform not much younger (it's even survived IBM abandoning it!). The POSIX standards that define a "Unix-like" system are close to 50 and predate the existence of personal computers. Many of the protocols the Internet runs on are 30 years old or older. Windows NT is 24 years old. Even your shiny new Android or iThing runs on the 32-year-old ARM technology and uses an Unix-like OS.

If things had gone differently, we'd have seen different systems surviving. Perhaps if IBM had chosen the Motorola 68000 as the processor for the IBM PC, we would be using 64-bit multicore 68k-based processors and Intel would have vanished into history. It's not the best technologies in a technical sense that survive, but the ones people come to depend on to solve their problems.

Last edited by Woolie Wool; 07-31-2017 at 07:56 PM.
 
Old 08-01-2017, 05:24 AM   #8
Jjanel
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Talking Does Win10 cost OEMs <$1?

M$ must be basically giving Win10 to OEMs for free: I see US$49-$99 'PCs' at Fry's all the time!

If not for the purely 'mob' momentum driven (NOT logic/reason) PC=M$Win (or 10x$$ Mac),
IF John Q. Public='mob' would try it, Linux could save OEMs that $1? Win10 license fee.
(I guess the OEMs would submit their hardware to kernel.org to get drivers)

A $49-$99 9-11" touchscreen 2GB ram 32G eMMC (+any SD), fast wifi, BT, HDMI, (cell SIM?)
USB3 for DVD/HDD/..., fully compatible with most Linux distros, is MY dream come true

Sounds perfectly viable, if only some manufacturer (with decent quality hardware) would do it!
 
Old 08-01-2017, 09:27 AM   #9
Woolie Wool
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They won't do it because their customers all use Windows and have come to rely on Windows software and most of them would immediately reject Linux. It's why OS/2 didn't replace DOS, MCA didn't replace ISA (resulting in the horrible, horrible VLB bus for 486 machines), Plan 9 didn't replace Unix, Windows NT had to have extensive 9x compatibility added before it was sold to consumers, IA-64 and RISC architectures didn't replace x86, X11 is still kicking, etc. Using the accepted standard is not an irrational act, especially when you have hundreds or thousands of dollars of software made for a specific platform. That's an investment you're going to want to hold onto. Also keep in mind that most people don't really like computers all that much and don't care as long as the computer starts...most of the time and runs their software. Really, Linux's time will come when these people largely abandon their personal computers for smartphones and businesses move their digital operations over to platform-agnostic cloud services, and nerds have the PC market mostly to ourselves again. Linux is an OS by nerds, for nerds, it always was, and it always will be.

Also I'd have to be mighty poor to buy some junk heap sub-$100 touchscreen bauble as a computer. I spent almost $1000 on my new Windows rig with an AMD Ryzen 5, 16 gigs of RAM, a GeForce 1060, and 2.5 TB of storage and don't regret a single penny that I spent on it (which didn't include the Windows license, which I just moved over from my old computer because buying a restricted OEM license to save $20 is for fools).

And yes, Microsoft is probably giving Windows away to OEMs for free or a pittance because Microsoft is making Windows more readily available to protect its market share. Even a retail license is around half the cost of a Windows Vista license, and you get free upgrades now (my license was originally Windows 7, not Windows 10, and I paid nothing for a permanent upgrade).
 
Old 08-03-2017, 07:37 PM   #10
rob.rice
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NO not long from now every thing that runs on what was linux will be assimilated
in to systemd
 
Old 08-06-2017, 09:20 PM   #11
IFTTT
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Who really knows? In 10, 15, 20 or more years, all operating systems may be obsolete.

For now, linux is doing just fine and is found in many devices as to microsoft and apple.
 
Old 08-08-2017, 01:24 PM   #12
fatmac
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rob.rice View Post
NO not long from now every thing that runs on what was linux will be assimilated
in to systemd


IF we are not careful!

Devuan & the like to save the day.......
 
Old 08-08-2017, 03:11 PM   #13
jlinkels
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As long as OS-es as we know them are still needed Linux makes a good chance to survive.

Look at it this way, *nix has evolved from a PDP-7 in 1970 to everything we have now. Embedded systems, Androids, GUI Desktops. But the fundamentals are still the same.

It will be hard to replace 50 years of evolution.

Besides, looking at everything where *nix is installed on, it still operates very smoothly and nowhere limits are reached, requiring a jump step in development.

Even the introduction of systemd was a gradual evolutionary step. Although some consider that differently.

jlinkels
 
  


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