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Old 06-08-2020, 09:14 AM   #661
hazel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
Rather than "no longer exists", the actual claim is more like 'mutated to become much less lethal'. Although a more likely explanation (to me) is that now that the peak is past, the doctors have more time to see less serious cases, which would have previously been ignored.
Actually that's a very likely explanation because it perfectly matches the behaviour of other coronaviruses that have crossed over into humans over time. For example, recent DNA studies have shown that a coronavirus crossed from cattle into humans around 1890. This coincides exactly with a pandemic known as Russian Flu. Of course in those days no one knew about viruses, and influenza was a general term for respiratory diseases that spread rapidly without any apparent cause (and must therefore be due to "evil influences"). No swabs were kept from patients of this disease but, until recently, it was assumed to be some kind of true influenza. Now it seems that it was a coronavirus. The virus in question is still with us and causes a lot of colds, but no one ever dies from it. In 1890, it killed a lot of people, mostly the old, and more men than women. Sounds familiar?

Viruses don't want to kill you or make you really ill. They want you going to parties and infecting other people. The natural tendency therefore is for them to become less and less lethal.

Last edited by hazel; 06-08-2020 at 09:40 AM.
 
Old 06-17-2020, 09:12 AM   #664
teckk
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Frontline The Virus: What Went Wrong?
https://www.pbs.org/video/the-virus-...-wrong-mk79yu/

Code:
#Master .m3u8
https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/frontline/17c3eadc-583c-4888-b669-7b451538eb25/2000181895/hd-16x9-mezzanine-1080p/00003901-hls-16x9-1080p.m3u8

#1100k stream
curl https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/frontline/17c3eadc-583c-4888-b669-7b451538eb25/2000181895/hd-16x9-mezzanine-1080p/00003901-hls-16x9-1080p-432p-1100k_[00001-00843].ts -o - >> VirusWrong.ts
 
Old 06-18-2020, 04:48 AM   #665
hazel
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I said before that every experiment needs a control and that Sweden had agreed to be the control for Europe, when it came to lockdown. Their unique strategy was to keep the economy open while using social distancing and masking to prevent an overwhelming load on their health service, in order to arrive eventually at the longed-for goal of herd immunity. Interestingly that was Boris Johnson's strategy too until he abruptly changed his mind.

Now the results seem to be in and they are not good. Sweden has had a very high death rate from covid, though not high enough to cause a health service catastrophe, and herd immunity seems not to have developed beyond 15% or so. That's hard luck on the Swedes, but at least we know now that that doesn't work. Europe owes them its thanks.
 
Old 06-18-2020, 08:08 AM   #666
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hazel View Post
I said before that every experiment needs a control and that Sweden had agreed to be the control for Europe, when it came to lockdown. Their unique strategy was to keep the economy open while using social distancing and masking to prevent an overwhelming load on their health service, in order to arrive eventually at the longed-for goal of herd immunity. Interestingly that was Boris Johnson's strategy too until he abruptly changed his mind.
IMO, it's not really a controlled experiment, because they can change tack at any time if things start looking worse. That is, the severity of the outbreak affects the response, so it's not a proper experiment for testing the effects of the response.

Quote:
Now the results seem to be in and they are not good. Sweden has had a very high death rate from covid, though not high enough to cause a health service catastrophe, and herd immunity seems not to have developed beyond 15% or so. That's hard luck on the Swedes, but at least we know now that that doesn't work. Europe owes them its thanks.
On the other hand, the per-capita death-rate is still below Italy, Spain, the UK, and Belgium. Can we conclude that whatever those countries tried doesn't work? I think there are just too many other variables to make such general conclusions.
 
Old 06-18-2020, 04:08 PM   #667
Hermani
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ntubski View Post
On the other hand, the per-capita death-rate is still below Italy, Spain, the UK, and Belgium. Can we conclude that whatever those countries tried doesn't work? I think there are just too many other variables to make such general conclusions.
There are more variables that play a role than the measures different governments took.

Over here in The Netherlands there is quite a difference in prevalence between the southern and the northern provinces. If you look at the way the virus spread over here:
  1. In February a lot of people went on the Winter holidays - there is no real difference in people from the south or north in that - and a lot of them took the virus home from the ski resorts in Italy and Austria.
  2. Just after that holiday in the south a lot of people went on celebrating carnival
  3. After carnival the lock-down measures were taken
This made for a lot of fatalities in the south while the north was relatively spared (check out this page: https://www.rivm.nl/node/155001). So in this case, the difference in infection rates can not be attributed to a difference in lockdown measures (as there were none) but solely to the timing of the virus arriving and local customs. The virus was carried over from the ski resorts in sufficient quantity and the Dutch carnival (with all bars packed to the brim with people from all ages) did the rest.
 
Old 06-18-2020, 08:56 PM   #668
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What we learned from Sweden is at least two things. One that the spread of Covid in healthy populations in using stay home if sick and modest distancing results in no greater spread than controlled countries. The bug isn't that impressive.

Two that the disease can easily attack the vulnerable in elder care no matter how well your health care is. The bug is impressive to the weak.


One thing I have been watching is Texas. Harris county (Houston) has death rate of 0.0164124029299994 which is near flu. Either they know how to manage their hospitals or some other factor is in play. The counties around Corpus Christi have almost no deaths and almost no reported cases.

I still say there is some simple answer to this deal. Children shouldn't be so under-represented. They hold some immunity that has not been discovered and in fact no one seems to try to find answer.
 
Old 06-19-2020, 05:02 AM   #669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jefro View Post
[Children] hold some immunity that has not been discovered and in fact no one seems to try to find answer.

The immune system of children: the key to understanding SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility? was published on 6th May. Here are a few relevant quotes...

Quote:
Children are more vulnerable to other infections; thus, the important question arises—why are children less susceptible to COVID-19 disease compared with adults?
Quote:
We have just started a prospective study aimed at testing our hypotheses discussed above.
Quote:
Although vaccines are the way forward, in emergency situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the investigation and use of immune tools that nature has endowed to children might improve management outcomes.
 
Old 06-19-2020, 05:29 AM   #670
hazel
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One thing that puzzles me is the role of the immune system in all this. Some viruses (SARS, Spanish Flu) cause an "immune storm" in which the cause of death is actually an autoimmune attack, similar to sepsis rather than any direct effect of the virus. That was why the Spanish Flu was often lethal in young people with strong immune systems while sparing the old. Seasonal flu shows the opposite tendency and kills mainly old people.

Covid-19 doesn't seem to fall neatly into either group. Most of those who die from it are old people with weak immune systems, yet the symptoms that precede death look like an immune storm, and we now know that treatment with a common steroid medication called dexamethasone can often help. Steroids are immune suppressants, which is why they are used to treat allergies.

Can anyone explain this?
 
Old 06-19-2020, 05:56 AM   #671
quickquestion111
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There's nothing special AFAIK about the immune system of children, it's just their immune system is not compromised. The reason why some viruses are especially deadly to kids is due to lack of immunity to certain strains; having not lived long enough to gain any. Which was the case in the Spanish Flu.

So to effectively fight off a virus you need:
1) an intact immune system
2) an immunity to it

Sometimes just an intact immune system will suffice based on how deadly the virus is, e.g. the Coronavirus.

Why Some Flus Are Deadliest in Young Adults
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...memory/507287/

Last edited by quickquestion111; 06-19-2020 at 06:07 AM.
 
Old 06-30-2020, 08:34 AM   #672
sp331yi
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@hazel -- I do not think anyone is able to explain the phenomenon you cite, just yet.

FYI -- Elsevier has a good informative PDF download entitled

COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses


Muhammad Adnan Shereen, et al

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...90123220300540

Last edited by sp331yi; 06-30-2020 at 11:38 AM. Reason: add link
 
Old 06-30-2020, 05:15 PM   #674
jefro
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"Spanish Flu was often lethal in young people" The things I read were that it was lethal because the older adults had an almost exact h and n factor flu and that protected them. It was the first time the younger crowd was exposed so it was similar to the European diseases affecting the Native Americans.

"Most of those who die from it are old people with weak immune systems," Sadly the disease affects the weak. Yes, at some point the immune system goes into overdrive much like Crohn's or other types of diseases that are autoimmune types. So far it hasn't been reported that other types of drugs for autoimmune have any positive affects other than the one steroid. (maybe others would work)


From the medical page. "2020 Jun; 4(6): " "We have just started a prospective study aimed at testing our hypotheses " Duhh. 6 months late..

One study is looking into using salt/iodine/soap to be used to wash nasal and throat to reduce viral load. One thinking is those that survive get a lower dose and can have time to form response.

I still believe it was the lab near Wuhan. If I saw a building on fire and a guy with an empty diesel can and matches with a trail of diesel from the fire to him I'd have to suspect he's the one that did it. I don't doubt it came from bats in it's original form at least.

In any case, in the meantime eat healthy, get sleep and exercise.

Last edited by jefro; 06-30-2020 at 05:27 PM.
 
Old 07-02-2020, 01:27 PM   #675
teckk
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Lots of people said that it could not be done. But we did it with Trump. We hit 50,000 new corona virus cases in a single day. Woooo Hoooo. No one is going to tell US what do do. USA USA USA USA

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ive-updates-us
 
  


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