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Old 03-16-2020, 05:13 AM   #31
Pastychomper
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I heard yesterday that the first two cases in my region had just been confirmed - we're a few weeks behind more southerly areas but are suffering some toilet paper daftness. I have friends in the English Southeast and that area sounds close to forgetting letters 4 to 6 of "pandemic". I think the BBC's dignified sensationalism is making things worse, but at least the actual advice they give seems sound.

As usual the "central belt" (which is actually in the south) of Scotland seems to be mirroring southern England on a smaller scale.

One anecdote from the Saafeast amused me: Earlier this year a coach-load of kids returned from a school trip to Italy and were advised to self-isolate, so they bravely took to hanging around the town centre in groups.

I understand that a lot of commercial HEPA filters can block flu-like viruses, along with some other air treatments like UV. I wonder whether it would be worth installing appropriately-graded air filters in at-risk locations to reduce (not eliminate) the risk of transmission.

I've just started looking into a UV+filter-type air purifier as a possible line of defence for some over-70 relatives, but I'm slightly put off by the quacky tone of the advertising for most such units.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 07:56 AM   #32
hazel
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Yesterday I received a hand-posted note from a very nice young neighbour offering to shop for me if I ever need that kind of help. He's Indian, which didn't greatly surprise me. Those people still have a very old fashioned attitude to social issues, similar to what I remember from my youth. He wrote: "We are all in this together and I want to contribute to our community spirit." Wasn't that sweet?

Today I went down to the building society and checked that I could, if necessary, deputise someone to collect money for me. The clerk explained the security features that cover that kind of transaction and I was impressed. Hopefully it will not be necessary, but I suspect they will be getting a lot of similar enquiries over the next few days.

I went to evensong last night. I have given up going to communion because I can't take part in good conscience when we are all treating each other as lepers (those who are familiar with the symbolism will understand). After the service I got to chatting with the vicar. He is quietly furious at the things he has been ordered to do. He feels, like me, that a lot of this is panic and that of course people are not going to come to church and share the Peace if they have the slightest suspicion that they are infectious. I told him, "You're a priest. You have to do what your bishop tells you." He responded with a rather uncharitable remark about the bishop and an even worse one about the archdeacon! That cheered me up no end.

I told him that I had lived through two pandemics (Asian Flu and Hong Kong Flu) and there hadn't been this sort of panic even though old people had died of those too. And he said, "I think life was cheaper then." He may have a point. In those days cancer was a death sentence and pneumonia was called "the old man's friend". Most men died soon after getting their gold watch. Nowadays people seem to expect to live forever and get panic-stricken at the very idea that they might die of something.

Last edited by hazel; 03-16-2020 at 07:59 AM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 08:47 AM   #33
michaelk
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Influenza and Coronovirus are different viruses. If you look back at the Spanish Flu which killed between 50 and 100 million people, the city that had the fewest cases was St. Louis and the worst was Philadelphia in the US. The reason was the St. Louis health commissioner recognized the threat early and immediately shutdown the city and basically invented social distancing.

Not taking it seriously is bad and yet we should not panic...
 
Old 03-16-2020, 08:55 AM   #34
hazel
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Spanish Flu was quite different, and different from most kinds of influenza too. It killed by triggering a lethal overreaction in the immune system, so the victims were mostly young and previously healthy people (including children), not the old. The overall death rate was quite high. MERS (another coronavirus) does that too but covid-19 doesn't.

Last edited by hazel; 03-16-2020 at 09:50 AM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 10:09 AM   #35
teckk
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The governor in the state which I live shut down all restaurants starting today until mar 30. Only for sit down, take away/out are allowed to continue.

That's going to financially hurt a bunch of people. A lot of people live from paycheck to paycheck to start with. The news said that Ohio did that also.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reports

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/

http://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/

Edit:
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/0ORPR...=oldSite&ss=a3

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geogra...019-ncov-cases

Last edited by teckk; 03-16-2020 at 10:11 AM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 10:16 AM   #36
ChuangTzu
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H1N1 killed approx. 80,000 people in the USA alone. Global estimates between 700 million and 1.4 billion were infected with 150,000-575,000 fatalities.

This time next year and probably for the remainder of this decade we will recall this moment in history as the Coronavirus Hysteria. There is much to learn from this, but most of that has to do with Herd/Crowd mentality.

I suggest the following books to put this in historical perspective:

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary...Charles+Mackay

The Crowd: The Study of the Popular Mind
https://www.amazon.com/Crowd-Study-P...SW8W5N4R3AG7ZM

Propaganda
https://www.amazon.com/Propaganda-Ed...DC23N1CTBVS3TB
 
Old 03-16-2020, 10:29 AM   #37
rtmistler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teckk View Post
The governor in the state which I live shut down all restaurants starting today until mar 30. Only for sit down, take away/out are allowed to continue.
They did this in Massachusetts as well, unless that's where you are ... I'm sure a lot of states are doing similar things anyways. I know i seems harsh towards businesses, but I think things still will be harsh because employees do not want to be near other people and possibly business will be slow as well.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 01:22 PM   #38
Basslord1124
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teckk...are you from KY? I am and our governor made the decision to close restaurant dining rooms today. And they are still going to do carry-out and delivery.

As for myself, I am doing my best to take precautions but not buying as much into the whole hysteria. My wife is pretty well caught up in it and she has kept us stocked up on things (although not as crazy as some folk out there). We have a now 2 year old daughter that was born at 24 weeks, and we do the isolation thing very well already for her sake. Wife mainly stays home. I go to work with an occasional trip to the store or pharmacy. We are in more of a rural community too, so I'm thinking there may not be much activity here...but I guess we shall see.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 01:26 PM   #39
teckk
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Quote:
teckk...are you from KY?
Nope, Illinois.

6 minute video on Covid19 54MB

https://www.pbs.org/video/what-we-kn...avirus-rqdtck/

Choose your tool that you want to use.
Code:
#1100k stream playlist
plist="https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/nova/76e08841-a2a0-4db9-a204-b62c4baa656e/\
2000163632/hd-16x9-mezzanine-1080p/coronavirus-web-hls-16x9-1080p-432p-1100k.m3u8"

#Let youtube-dl fetch it
youtube-dl -f 0 "$plist" -o Corona.mp4
Code:
#User agent
agent="Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.1; x86_64; rv:72.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/72.0"

#Segment list
url="https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/nova/76e08841-a2a0-4db9-a204-b62c4baa656e/2000163632/\
hd-16x9-mezzanine-1080p/coronavirus-web-hls-16x9-1080p-432p-1100k_[00001-00060].ts"

#Let curl fetch it
curl -A "$agent" "$url" -o - >> Corona.ts

#Put in into a mp4 container
ffmpeg -i Corona.ts -c:a copy -c:v copy Corona.mp4
Code:
url2="https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/nova/76e08841-a2a0-4db9-a204-b62c4baa656e/2000163632/\
hd-16x9-mezzanine-1080p/coronavirus-web-hls-16x9-1080p-432p-1100k_"

#Let wget fetch it
for seg in {00001..00060}; do
    wget -U "$agent" "$url2""$seg".ts -O - >> Corona.ts
done

ffmpeg -i Corona.ts -c:a copy -c:v copy Corona.mp4
Edit:
Missed a quote

Last edited by teckk; 03-16-2020 at 01:35 PM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 01:58 PM   #40
teckk
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Spillover - Zika, Ebola & Beyond
https://www.pbs.org/video/spillover-...-ebola-beyond/

Code:
youtube-dl -F https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/spillover-zika-ebola-beyond/\
3a4ea391-cb68-40d7-9ce7-57566506222b/254614/hd-1080p-mezzanine-16x9/3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-hls-1080p.m3u8
[generic] 3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-hls-1080p: Requesting header
[generic] 3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-hls-1080p: Downloading m3u8 information
[info] Available formats for 3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-hls-1080p:
format code  extension  resolution note
198          mp4        416x234     198k , avc1.64000d, mp4a.40.5
454          mp4        480x270     454k , avc1.640015, mp4a.40.2
824          mp4        640x360     824k , avc1.64001e, mp4a.40.2
1269         mp4        768x432    1269k , avc1.64001e, mp4a.40.2
2595         mp4        1280x720   2595k , avc1.64001f, mp4a.40.2
4672         mp4        1920x1080  4672k , avc1.640032, mp4a.40.2
6716         mp4        1920x1080  6716k , avc1.640032, mp4a.40.2 (best)
Code:
agent="Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.1; x86_64; rv:72.0) Gecko/20100101 Firefox/72.0"

curl -A "$agent" https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/spillover-zika-ebola-beyond/\
3a4ea391-cb68-40d7-9ce7-57566506222b/254614/hd-1080p-mezzanine-16x9/3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-mp4-1200k.mp4 -o Zika.mp4
Code:
curl -LI https://ga.video.cdn.pbs.org/videos/spillover-zika-ebola-beyond/\
3a4ea391-cb68-40d7-9ce7-57566506222b/254614/hd-1080p-mezzanine-16x9/3e2b3344_spil0000-16x9-mp4-1200k.mp4
HTTP/1.1 200 OK
Content-Type: video/mp4
Content-Length: 516092965
Connection: keep-alive
Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2020 18:57:05 GMT
Last-Modified: Wed, 03 Aug 2016 14:54:00 GMT
...
 
Old 03-16-2020, 02:55 PM   #41
vmccord
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I am going batsh*t crazy. I hate working from home. I am not an introvert.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 04:26 PM   #42
jazzy_mood
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I'm used to work from home since I've been doing it since some years ago.

Being outside the vulnerable groups, I'm not worried about myself but about some family members who live away. I live alone, so the worst part of this quarantine for me is having to spend two weeks (or maybe more?) virtually locked in my house alone. No social contact, not even walks, exercising outdoors, etc., just walks from my place to the supermarket and back. I understand these measures are necessary, but the whole situation is boring and depressing all the same.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 04:54 PM   #43
ondoho
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^ Why "not even walks"?
You live in a tight city? Can't you get out, as in out of the city, to take a walk?
 
Old 03-16-2020, 05:11 PM   #44
jazzy_mood
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ondoho View Post
^ Why "not even walks"?
You live in a tight city? Can't you get out, as in out of the city, to take a walk?
I usually walk on a promenade in the city I live in, but I don't have a car and taking a bus to go outside the city would be too cumbersome at this moment since they've reduced the frequency of buses and there are travel restrictions. I'm not actually sure if it's possible at all (like going on a hike, not going to another place outside the city). I'm in Spain where a state of alarm has just been declared and people are not supposed to go outside just for a walk.

Last edited by jazzy_mood; 03-16-2020 at 05:13 PM.
 
Old 03-16-2020, 05:19 PM   #45
enorbet
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It is my understanding that Covid is not airborne in the sense that it can travel distances larger than a few feet from infected individuals, and that's in relatively still air. Circulating air reduces exposure, so I don't think walking outside is especially vulnerable unless we are talking in rather close proximity to others. One problem I am seeing is many young people assume because the elderly are more at risk, many younger folks think they have a pass if my college age granddaughters are at all typical. One of my granddaughters told her Father she was "business as usual" since "I might get sick with a runny nose but I won't die". When my Son said "But you could spread it to people who might die from it" and as bright as she actually is, she just said, "I didn't think of that".

It's really hard to determine what is overreacting and what is underreacting, but it is a known fact that the most effective means of fighting this pandemic, and it officially is one, is limiting exposure to others especially during the early stages until more data is in and scrutinized to minimize the spread so that it doesn't go exponential and flattens out as quickly as possible.

In the US the Center for Disease Control must run scenarios of worst case to best case to get a realistic feel for what's possible. It's so early yet here that worst case may seem quite horrendous but it literally is possible if many react like some of my grandkids and go on as if nothing has changed. CDC currently predicts realistic worst case for the US is 1,700,000 dead in one year, nationwide, assuming nothing preventative is done. Best case is in the tens of thousands not counting on any breakthrough intervention as yet unimagined.

Here's the source - https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...-states-italy/
 
  


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