Delta variant will lead to increase in breakthrough Covid infections among vaccinated, Moderna says

The highly contagious delta variant will lead to an increase in breakthrough infections among the fully vaccinated as people begin moving indoors, Moderna said.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/08/05/...erna-says.html

Breakthrough infection means someone who is fully vaccinated, becoming infected with the Coronavirus

Before those who don't click on the link and read and just go into panic mode, please note that "moving indoors" is followed by "for the winter months". That happens to coincide with the approximate 6 month longevity of protection provided by Moderna. Hopefully WHO will recognize this as they are currently recommending people not receive booster until those who have yet to get the first two shots finally get theirs. Until and Unless the death rate really starts to climb among the un-vaccinated I have grave doubts many of them will come around, so I have mixed feelings about the WHO recent statements.

And if the death rates keep going down instead, then there isn't really a problem.

Preliminary data from the UK seems to indicate that the delta variant is both more contagious and results in much less severe COVID-19, but the official numbers are not yet in. It would be great if that turns out to be correct.

However, the official statistics for COVID-19 deaths in general in the UK by age group are available. For the <50 age group, the risk of death is very low (< 0.1%), about on par with the seasonal flu. On the other hand, in the 80+ group the mortality rate has been a staggering 9%, but in fairness that does include all deaths in hospitals and nursing homes.

Personally, I'm not very concerned. The data I've seen so far just doesn't support it.

I agree the death rate is low

But some people also report their respiratory system has been permanently damaged after the infection. Yes they survived but their respiratory system is now permanently damaged

CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated

SOURCE - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/cdc-...aboolainternal

Short answer: "unsafe and ineffective."

But "worth tens of billions of dollars ... at least so far ... nonetheless."

A fundamental characteristic of corona and rhino viruses is that they constantly and randomly mutate. This is why you can "catch a cold" more than once. This is also why we can immunize against smallpox, mumps, rubella, measles, and polio, but we've never been able to vaccinate against "the common cold."

There's actually no such thing as a "greek-letter variant." This notion would presuppose that mutations only happened "every now and then," and that a mechanism then existed which would then accurately replicate that single variant quadrillions of times. The reality is that both corona and rhino viruses are "inherently unstable." Each and every time they replicate, there is a random chance that some random "error" will occur. There is no natural-selection process that favors one random mutation over the other.

The politically-connected companies who ... for a brief moment, at least ... turned their worthless potions and theories into "tens of billions of dollars" are now simply trying to cover for the fact that they don't work. And to parley this realization into ... more sales.

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we endeavor to deceive!"

Basically this just says what anyone who pays attention already knew. The vaccines are effective for 6-8 months after which a booster is required to keep high levels of protection. They've said from Day 1 that if it was an extended pandemic that boosters might be required due to lessening protective levels. Making mountains out of molehills.

Do you have a link for that? I've been seeing people posting claims like that, but also other claims that it's ~2x times more lethal.

The greek-letter variants don't correspond one-to-one with individual mutations, yes. And the assignment is obviously somewhat arbitrary and artificial. But saying they don't exist would be like saying mountains don't exist, just hills of different sizes. The artificial distinctions do have some correspondence with the underlying reality. You can take a look at some of the detected mutations here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

Mr Darwin would like a word with you.

I'm personally with the head honcho in the WHO who talks about letting poorer nations get ONE dose before the rich nations come knocking for a third.

Still searching, still unable to find reliable sources for either claim.

Another user (valeoak) posted a link to a preprint of a UK study in another thread, and the study indicates that the vaccine is effective against the delta variant as well. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem to address the issue of virulence.

I'm sorry, but he's entirely correct about that. Mutations are by definition random.

Once a mutated version exists, however, it will indeed "compete" with the other variants.

The heads advising the British Government were putting out figures like that over several weeks Britain was at the forefront of the Delta variant at the time. I don't know of any published data, but Government advice or statistics are often unpublished. In Ireland there was a shsrp uptick in infections also. (~350 to -1100)

Great Britain has in many cases been one of the few reliable sources of data I've been able to find.

Earlier today I learned of the response to a Freedom of Information request by a journalist regarding COVID-19 fatalities in England. It turns out that it is still the case that no-one has data on deaths that were ruled as "caused by COVID-19," only "deaths within 28 days of a positive test". Not sure if that refers to a PCR test or an antibody test.

Anyway, as of 21. July 2021, the official total number of hospital deaths in England (population ~56 million) where no pre-existing conditions were recorded, is 3,656. Given such a low number, any significant spike in deaths due to new virus variants should be easy to spot.

The spike was in infections, not deaths. Delta is hitting younger folks and hospitalizations/deaths are low. There is a higher proportion of 'Long Covid' type residual damage. India is a different case. Some black fungus and general carnage.

EDIT:@ntubski: The source I can quote on Delta contagion is the "R" number data released by the UK Government

I know, I was referring to deaths typically trailing infections by about two weeks.

Early on in the pandemic (Feb/Mar 2020) I regularly watched Dr. Campbell's YouTube channel, and he is quite good at the obtaining and analyzing scientific reports and hard data. The earliest data showed an average of 10 days between infection and hospital admittance for severe COVID-19 cases, and some 3-5 days between admittance and death in the worst cases. I don't know if the statistics have changed since then.If even the rate of hospitalizations is low, then there is little reason for concern.

Once this is over, it'll be interesting to see if the long(er)-lasting effects of COVID-19 are significantly different than for Influenza (which are bad enough, don't get me wrong).High humidity and extremely densely populated cities does unfortunately provide an ideal environment for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. And we've known from the start that opportunistic bacterial or fungal infections in the lower airways is the primary cause of severe COVID-19.

Add to that certain hygiene-related issues that the Indian government has been battling against for years, and you've got a real problem.

Right, and then natural selection acts, which obviously favours some mutations more than others (that's what selection means).