When will Linux be the main operating system of most computers?

I just wanted to ask when, realisticly, Linux with be the standard on all computers.

What do you mean by "most computers", like desktop or server or all computers ? I'd say never. I truly think Linux has a good chance to dominate the server market, but don't think it will ever be a desktop dominating OS. Unless someone takes over, creates a easy to use desktop for the non-computer saavy people and Microsoft runs out of money..

I voted "never" because that's what I hope... If Linux takes over the majority of computers, then idiots will write as many virii and scum-ware as they do now for Windows.

True, but you can get computers now with Linux preinstalled and the install of mandrake I did a while ago was really simple. I can see windows losing some ground in the server section though. Maybe not all computers will run Linux but there will probably be a few more joining as time goes on.

GNU/Linux (See RMS? I use GNU before Linux! ) will probably never fully dominate the desktop market but I expect it to steal a large share of the market from Microshaft Windoze in the next 1-4 years. I'd say around 20-30% of the desktop market is the most Linux will obtain. Too many people refuse to give up their BSODs and three-finger salutes for an unfamiliar interface. However much it resembles Windows, it's not the same. Even if it is superior, people will keep the OS they are used to.

But I really don't want Linux to be the dominant OS in any environment. What I'd like to see is each OS filling it's own niche in the market with some overlap. Linux for the slightly above-average computer user, Windoze for the clueless users, other *NIX and Unix-like for more advanced users, etc.

And if everyone starts using Linux, we'd have to move on, otherwise we wouldn't be cool anymore! Saying you're a Linux user would be like saying you use Windoze, no one would care. And do we ever want to see Tux as the symbol of the clueless computer users?

All I know is that I will move on if Linux becomes the standard OS for virus and spyware writing, even if it is still Free Software (copyleft). The BSDs will always be there, BEOS (abandoned but I'd like to give it a try), commercial *NIXes... too many choices!!

Main of most... you mean 51% of desktops and servers boot by default into Linux whether or not there's another OS installed? I'm not sure what the server stats vs. desktop stats are, but a *lot* of servers run Linux. Keeping it to just desktops? Depends. IBM adoped PC/MS-DOS and *boom* Microsoft ruled the world. So earth-shaking things can happen at whim. Times are different now, but MS's longbomb project could bomb or users could get really sick of registration crap or whatever. Companies could start using Linux in droves spontaneously and it could echo onto the desktop. Just going on momentum though, and ignoring paradigm shifts, I suspect never. Linux requires an above average user and that means it will have a below average market share - most people have a resistance to change and many of those willing to try give up. Linux's momentum hasn't peaked, in that all adventurous souls haven't gotten around to trying Linux yet, but it will peak at less than 50% unless, as I say, Microsoft does something catastrophic (quite likely). Even if Linux put user-friendliness as the primary development goal, it wouldn't work because Microsoft has mastered the art of 'good enough' and people aren't going to change now that Microsoft's seized the market and given people an OS that has the development support to create the apps that let most people do most of what they want to do.

But that's the thing - 'quite likely' that MS will do something catastrophic. It would take extraordinary discomfort to make Joe User leave Windows. Microsoft's best plan is to work on enticing or forcing businesses to use MS products but, regarding home users, to completely ignore Linux. Instead, they appear to be panicking even regarding home users and introducing things that make it uncomfortable for the home user to use Windows. They probably will overreact and react badly to Linux. They push 'good enough' on the rest of the world but 'good enough' isn't good enough for them - they have to crush all enemies and control things 100%. And that will probably be their undoing.

On the other other hand, if enough businesses switch to Linux then, by simple echo, Linux will grow in the home market, just because one of the main impulses of home computing derives from office computing and what somebody learns to do at work - where they have to know it - they'll get for home - because they already DO know it.

So... yeah, 2007/2010 or never. But I agree with ranger_nemo - in all honesty, MS is inherently less secure than Linux but there is also an uneven playing field - it's not just MS propaganda/excuses that say they *are* the largest, so make the easiest target, so get hit the most. A lot of the headaches that come with MS wouldn't be as bad with Linux, but those milder headaches would still come if Linux was in MS's position. So I hope Linux always stays in the minority - just a large enough minority to have a large pool of developers, users, and communities like this one.

And next time I'll give you the long answer.

It is nice being a Linux user because then you are part of the smaller crowd who know more about computers. Also it is fun because you can just say something simple that you do in Linux, like getting to the install in a programs, and everyone thinks you know a lot about computers. Tux is the best and he is a better logo than a flying windows sign.

Considering how many Web servers run Linux, we're ALL Linux users!

I think if more companies switch to Linux servers, they could put Linux dumb terminals on the desktop throughout the enterprise. I could have done that at my last company if they weren't so prejudiced towards paying for desktop licenses. In a month I could have saved them 130 desktop licenses, especially since they were already moving to thin clients. They chose to buy Win2K Terminal Server and Win98 desktops with a TS client. Everything they wanted to do could have been on Linux servers and thin clients.

So, I'd say even if it was possible or practical, there are too many stupid administrators that believe marketing rather than facts and proof.

So I'd say never for Linux. Apple, on the other hand is now the largest UNIX vendor, so I think they have a better chance of gaining ground on the desktop than Linux does.

Linux is the main (ie: only) OS on my computer, and that's all that matters for now. Rather than try to convince everyone to give up what they are familiar with I prefer to sit back and feel silently superior

I have tried getting some friends to use Linux with varying degrees of success. It's clear to me that you need a certain frame of mind to use Linux, and you need to invest the time to learn it properly.

I don't think Linux will ever be the main OS out there. I have come to realise that people don't want a quality product anymore, they want fast food, and fast food in the OS game will always be Microsoft.

I don't know when but I do know that slowly even desktops are being shipped w/ linux:

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/produ...106562%3A96356

i think as Mandrake and RedHat get more user friendly more people will start using them. but they may stay away from the harder to use/install ones.

Approx. 2015. When Linux palmtops, Linux cell phones, Linux TV sets etc will be popular. I can call a machine that can run Linux a computer, can I? When desktop computers will be less than 10% of total number of computers.

Windows is losing ground on the desktop market but not a whole lot. I wonder if it would be possible for me to put linux on my palm, probably not Maybe the army will use linux, in the middle of a war you wouldn't want your OS to freeze up on you.

Originally posted by trickykid What do you mean by "most computers", like desktop or server or all computers ? I'd say never. I truly think Linux has a good chance to dominate the server market, but don't think it will ever be a desktop dominating OS. Unless someone takes over, creates a easy to use desktop for the non-computer saavy people and Microsoft runs out of money..

I agree, I like to see it get easier. A GUI tool to setup everything. A way to install software without having to compile it. More software, more hardware support & better documentation. Those are the things I think would give linux a real chance of taking off.

but edward, there are already distros that come somewhere near your ideal...I mean if my granny can install Mandy 9.0 without too many problems, probably most people can do it...and there are other even easier installs out there (Lycoris? Xandros?).

I mean I had to provide the partitions thro' a windoze proggy (used PQmagic) only b'cause I hadn't cottoned on to how straightforward this could be under linux but she did it from there.

To me the granny test really does it but it's a good job she's not too bothered about CD audio because Mandy really need to get their act together there

JD

looking forward to Mandrake 9.1 Power Pack!