To work, notify-send needs to send a message over the D-bus session bus to a notification server such as xfce4-notifyd. I don't know that much about it, but as far as I know it is not possible for a process which is not part of the session (a child or descendent of the first post-login process, or something like that) to do that. Your apcupsd runs outside the session, of course, so I don't think it has any way to talk to the session D-bus.
Different problem for Xmessage, but still, it would need to communicate with the X server, and permissions are set up to prevent that - using the Xauthority mechanism.
I realize this isn't much help at all.
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