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Heh ... well, I'm doing that, too, every once in a while
something in common w/ a guru as yourself, i am truly (* spelling error to forth come)honored, however, we may have gotton of topic here, should probably get back to that buisiness((did i spell that correctly)(probably not haha)).
The Question posed is "Is open source software a threat to commercial software"
There are a number of approaches to this. The threat really lies in the commercial market since it there that the greatest amount of money is spent. Certainly M$ is very concerned at the present time about the threat to the server market as Linux has captured increasing market share over the last year. Perhaps some in depth research along this line is more appropriate than trying to evaluate Linux as a user. M$ adopted a new licencing approach recently (last year?) which has sent cold shivers up the spines of many large businesses and add to this the cost of outages due to worms and viri over the last year. The M$ server has shown itself to very vulnerable to attack and many of the firms are spending fortunes protecting themselves against these attacks to no apparent avail. The men who control the budgets are starting to put pressure on the IT sysadmins to explain why having spent huge sums of money on protection they still seem no better off.
Good here's a lead for you which indicates M$ current level of concern. Have a look at the archives of news from The Enquiror as well as they have featured a lot about this over the last 6 months.
Other big news is the investment that IBM has recently made ( if big Blue is interested then there is something there) and the recent aquisition of Suse by Novell with funding from IBM.