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Old 03-01-2013, 08:43 AM   #16
Netnovice
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>>Originally Posted by Netnovice
>>The word on the street – and in business – is that the PC is dead. The PC is now the tablet.
>I stopped reading here...

Did you?

>>Originally Posted by Netnovice
>>As Steve Jobs rightly foresaw, the Tablet has
>And again here...
So, you carried on reading then?

>The "word on the street" - who? Just random people? The newspapers? The tech press? The companies selling these products - who?

Sigh. Look online. Just a few links:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/techn...rticle4098023/
http://blog.moovweb.com/2013/02/the-...re-dont-panic/
http://www.techspot.com/news/50873-t...this-year.html
http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/artic...pments-in-2013
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-d...is-year-2013-1
http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/105...c-is-dead.html
http://betanews.com/2013/01/14/ding-dong-the-pcs-dead/
I could go on and on.

One key quote from the last piece:
"Whereas as once we imagined a world in which individual users would have both a PC and a tablet as personal devices, we increasingly suspect that most individuals will shift consumption activity to a personal tablet, and perform creative and administrative tasks on a shared PC. There will be some individuals who retain both, but we believe they will be exception and not the norm. Therefore, we hypothesize that buyers will not replace secondary PCs in the household, instead allowing them to age out and shifting consumption to a tablet"


Now try and find the voices saying “It isn’t happening” in 2013.

>Jobs was in the tablet business... I'm in the bananas business and you're in the oranges business - "oranges are dead, bananas are where it's at - and that's not just because I'm in the bananas business... honest".

Sure. I understand that. Only… Steve Jobs is dead now and the market is telling the story for him. I quite Jobs but the prediction is being shown in the MARKET!
I repeat; “we increasingly suspect that most individuals will shift consumption activity to a personal tablet, and perform creative and administrative tasks on a shared PC”

>When I come into work one day and find that we're all using tablets to do everything then I'll believe that the desktop/laptop PC is dead.

I said “Dead” in the sense that the PC as we KNOW it is failing and that the PRIMARY computing device of users which *drives the market* will be the tablet. I did not say that the desktop would be extinct. Laptop, yes. Desktop no.

>I think it's sad that the same kind of marketing bollocks you find in the fashion industry is now invading computing... "oh you use a laptop? That's soooooo last week...", etc.

I agree. But if it works and makes people buy Tablets over a laptop and revolutionises the industry – for good or ill – what does it matter in reality? The likes of you and I cannot change reality. Advertising and fashion, alas, can and do. I don’t like it. It just is.

I repeat – I do not wish for a laptop free future! I do not want a tablet dominant market with the PC relegated to a market niche but that’s where a lot of people are seeing it going and the sales figures are stunning!
 
Old 03-01-2013, 08:51 AM   #17
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>A decade ago personal computers, in the main, cost about what they do today. Yes, there are now more "bargain basement" computers but I can't see that changing as that's as much a result of moving manufacturing as it is volume.
That’s good to hear! That’s a good thought. Also, thank you for our pleasant response. I am gratified! I am a gentle soul really!
I am a married man and I LIKE ‘Princess Tutu!’ So I really appreciate a gentle reply! (A Japanese anime about a ballet dancing girl/duck. Yes, you read that right!)

>I would also contend that most people who have bought tablets only bought a new PC every 5 years or so anyhow, and that combined with the cheap and cheerful machines they buy means they're not as much of the market as things may suggest.
Hmm… the total wipe out of the netbook, even in Asia, the decimation of laptops and desktops at high speed suggests otherwise, alas.


>Anyone who wants to do serious digital photography, make music, play PC-style games, create documents, develop software and web pages, edit movies or other tasks will likely have been buying more expensive PCs more often (or at least upgrading parts) than people who surf the net and wait until the next version of Windows is out.
Hmm… Not convinced. A content producer can do work on an aging PC for a long, long time. I used legacy for ages and ages, even for video editing! (Alas, you cannot buy second hand hardware in Indonesia. It is new or nothing here so a Tablet takeover affects me badly here!)

>In the same way Linux does not need (and in some ways does not want) "typical consumers" neither does the general purpose hardware industry.
OK. But that could relegate up/keep us as a niche market.

>I suppose we are lucky on pricing though -- you can get one hell of a PC for the price of an iPad
At the moment! But the cheaper netbook is now dead which hits me hard in Indonesia (though I was lucky and managed to get the right machine – though the LAST of it’s kind in Surabaya!) and, I fear, a rise in prices as we return to $1000 for a usable desktop.
I *hope* I am wrong and you are right! I sincerely do!
 
Old 03-01-2013, 09:14 AM   #18
273
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Netnovice View Post
"Whereas as once we imagined a world in which individual users would have both a PC and a tablet as personal devices, we increasingly suspect that most individuals will shift consumption activity to a personal tablet, and perform creative and administrative tasks on a shared PC. There will be some individuals who retain both, but we believe they will be exception and not the norm. Therefore, we hypothesize that buyers will not replace secondary PCs in the household, instead allowing them to age out and shifting consumption to a tablet"
To me this sums it up. You will notice that they are talking about household spending. That is, a family will have at least one PC for content creation and tablets for consumption. Given that a household only used to have one PC anyhow that doesn't change much. All that I see is that the silly PC boom that happened at the beginning of this century will die down and we'll be left as we were.

I take your point about using older kit and I regretted phrasing it as I did the moment I posted it but decided to leave it. What I was getting at is that people will continue to buy the computing power they need/want and people will continue to need/want a mouse and keyboard for input, lots of RAM for virtualisation and other RAM-hungry tasks, fast graphics cards for graphics and fast processors for everything else. Some of us can afford less than others but that flashy spoiled-rotten 15-year-old PC gamer from the US* with the latest i7 with 32GB RAM and the latest $1000 graphics card will still dump that on the market next year in the same way he would have done before tablets came along. Somebody who wants to word-process will still buy a laptop or desktop, though probably a lower spec one, for the multitasking and keyboard -- they'll sell that on too just as they did. So here we have a lot of general purpose machines being bought and sold still.

If the tablet grows a dock, keyboard, mouse and large monitor[s] then it'll still need a multitasking OS to be of use to many people so it'll end up being a laptop without a keyboard. That, to me, would push people back to the laptop for portability of keyboard and the desktop for expandability though it may take them a few years to work that out.
Incidentally, as has been mentioned, it's only the iPad and Surface family that "real" Linux isn't either available for right now or being developed for.

Another thing to throw out there is the Chrome Book. A device which would drive me mad until I put Debian on it but one which some may like. Basically another non-computer though but targeted more to people who want to type things sometimes.


*no offence meant feel free to read as UK, Germany, Netherlands, France or other rich country as you wish.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 09:55 AM   #19
Netnovice
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273 - Thank you for your thoughtful comments.

But, alas, it does not end there. The business market is also expected to, in large (though not total) part go Tablet as well. But it is late here and I need to sleep.

I sincerely hope you are right. In regards to the Chrome book, I understand while sales are booming on the machine... I keep reading buyers who put full blown Linux on it and are using it as a netbook! Yes, that is a possible backup plan for me!

As an ICT teacher, the netbook was perfect for me... and the Tablet killed it! Actually, to he fair, so did Microsoft with their stupid spec limits to get Windows on it without competing with Windows 7. Microsoft is real... yes, well.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 10:18 AM   #20
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You Netnovice, my friend, do justify your LQ handle well.

PC and laptops have their place and are not going anywhere down the sink. Period.

Regards.

Last edited by PrinceCruise; 03-01-2013 at 10:20 AM.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 11:16 AM   #21
Dman58
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Can your tablet do this!

IMHO it's all a trend for now that will soon die down once the population can catch up. People aren't buying these tablets to replace the laptop or desktop, they are buying as an accessory to accentuate their individual lifestyle. Advertising is everywhere for these devices and once the neighbor has one then the entire neighborhood is right behind because "Monkey see monkey do". Of course the market is showing that the tablet is taking over sales because people love new technology, the prices are very competitive, and it can be thrown right in your coat pocket (if it's a scottevest), or slip easily inside the hand/bookbag. I had the opportunity for I tablet and I kindly rejected for a laptop because I needed the power of a pc and the mobility. I have a desktop system that is almost 8 years old and when I retire that the replacement is going to be. . . Drum roll please! . . . Another one! Even bigger, badder, faster, and cooler than before. After that and only after that (unless it's free) I'll consider getting a tablet.

Wow this issue is almost as good as the UEFI discussion or the Linus rants!
 
Old 03-01-2013, 01:41 PM   #22
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Ugh, this argument pops up every 6 months and is always wrong.

The way I see it is this. In their current state, tablets cannot replace desktops/laptops. They can be added to a family that already has laptops/desktops so they can surf the web or play games on the go, but you cannot only have a tablet. It doesn't have the power or the functionality to do everything a family might need a computer to do. Can you write a term paper on a tablet? Do your taxes? Multitask (I mean real multitasking, not flipping back and forth between two programs)? Copy files onto USBs to transfer to people (when they're too big to email)? To do any of these things, you need to have a real computer. Therefore, the tablet will not replace the computer in any household, it can simply be added to it.

The reason you're seeing this boom in tablet sales is because people are adding them to their PCs, they are not replacing their PCs.

As soon as tablets evolve to the point where they could legitimately be stand alone devices for a household, they will be just as cumbersome (if not more so) than existing laptops and will lose their "portability" appeal. Laptops and desktops are going nowhere.

What it really comes down to is this. People need PCs (or macs, whatever), they do not need tablets.

Last edited by suicidaleggroll; 03-01-2013 at 01:46 PM.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 05:22 PM   #23
Randicus Draco Albus
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Copious amounts of conjecture, philosophising and fantasising have been posted about tablets and home computer use. Business use has been virtually ignored. In the places I work, almost all staff have computers that they use in the office and take into the classroom. I have yet to see anyone using a tablet. Why? A tablet is not for work. It is a fashionable toy. And lap-tops in the work place are the exception. Most work stations still have non-portable computing devices sitting on top of desks. So yes, the market is speaking loudly and clearly.

What are the "analysts" saying?
"we increasingly suspect"
"Therefore, we hypothesize"
Must be true then. (In case there is doubt, that is sarcasm.)

Quote:
I was distinguishing between a prediction which was CLEARLY untrue (although, were you thinking more about Vista?)
No, I was referring to recent threads stating the imminent death of MS.

Quote:
You do not have the right to ‘rebuke’ me. Who gave you the authority?
One; You seem to not understand the difference between rebuke and punishment.
Two; Only moderators have the authority to inform someone that a post is nonsense?
Have you not noticed, that you are a lone voice. Why has no one agreed with you?
 
Old 03-01-2013, 07:02 PM   #24
rokytnji
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Sigh, through this whole thread. I looked to see if Netnovice was posting from a tablet.
Kinda, "let's see if he puts his money where his mouth is" kinda thing.
We down South here have that kind of perspective when it comes to preaching.

Sadly no. I don't think Windows 7 has a arm kernel. This post made by a 9" Atom cpu
Netbook that no one owns but me on this forum as far as I know.

If I am wrong. Match my specs.

Code:
@biker:~
$ lsusb -t
/:  Bus 05.Port 1: Dev 1, Class=root_hub, Driver=uhci_hcd/2p, 12M
/:  Bus 04.Port 1: Dev 1, Class=root_hub, Driver=uhci_hcd/2p, 12M
/:  Bus 03.Port 1: Dev 1, Class=root_hub, Driver=uhci_hcd/2p, 12M
/:  Bus 02.Port 1: Dev 1, Class=root_hub, Driver=uhci_hcd/2p, 12M
/:  Bus 01.Port 1: Dev 1, Class=root_hub, Driver=ehci_hcd/8p, 480M
    |__ Port 6: Dev 2, If 0, Class='bInterfaceClass 0x0e not yet handled', Driver=uvcvideo, 480M
    |__ Port 6: Dev 2, If 1, Class='bInterfaceClass 0x0e not yet handled', Driver=uvcvideo, 480M
    |__ Port 7: Dev 3, If 0, Class=vend., Driver=rt73usb, 480M
    |__ Port 8: Dev 4, If 0, Class=stor., Driver=ums-realtek, 480M
Code:
@biker:~
$ inxi -F -z
System:    Host: biker Kernel: 3.7.8-antix.1-486-smp i686 (32 bit) 
           Desktop: Fluxbox 1.3.2 Distro: antiX-13-beta1_386-base Ahmad Sami 8 February 2013
Machine:   System: manda product: Intel powered classmate PC version: Gen 1.5L
           Mobo: N/A model: N/A Bios: American Megatrends version: CM94515A.86A.0024.2008.0715.1716 date: 07/15/2008
CPU:       Single core Intel Core CPU N270 (-HT-) cache: 512 KB flags: (nx pae sse sse2 sse3 ssse3) 
           Clock Speeds: 1: 800.00 MHz 2: 800.00 MHz
Graphics:  Card: Intel Mobile 945GSE Express Integrated Graphics Controller 
           X.Org: 1.12.4 drivers: intel (unloaded: fbdev,vesa) Resolution: 1024x600@53.3hz 
           GLX Renderer: Mesa DRI Intel 945GME x86/MMX/SSE2 GLX Version: 1.4 Mesa 8.0.5
Audio:     Card: Intel NM10/ICH7 Family High Definition Audio Controller driver: snd_hda_intel 
           Sound: Advanced Linux Sound Architecture ver: k3.7.8-antix.1-486-smp
Network:   Card: Realtek RTL8101E/RTL8102E PCI Express Fast Ethernet controller driver: r 
           IF: eth0 state: down mac: <filter>
Drives:    HDD Total Size: 63.3GB (0.5% used) 1: id: /dev/sda model: KingSpec_KSD size: 63.3GB 
Partition: ID: / size: 8.7G used: 2.0G (24%) fs: ext2 ID: /home size: 50G used: 284M (1%) fs: ext2 
Sensors:   System Temperatures: cpu: 61.0C mobo: N/A 
           Fan Speeds (in rpm): cpu: N/A 
Info:      Processes: 94 Uptime: 3:13 Memory: 222.9/2015.1MB Client: Shell (bash) inxi: 1.8.44
I bought my ol'lady a IBM Tablet with Android whatever on it so I could abscond with
her old Acer Aspire One Zg5 with XP on it. It is a dualbooter now. I like this Netbook
better now though after I put the 64gig SSD in it. Try that in a DRM Tablet.
I have and use class 10 sd cards also.

Edit: where are my manners? @Netnovice. I at least admire you for coming back and responding to posts. I also admire Rando Dracus Albus as a valued contributor to helping folks on this forum. I hope both
of you brothers in linux can be friends.

Happy Trails, Rok

Last edited by rokytnji; 03-01-2013 at 07:16 PM.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 08:10 PM   #25
Netnovice
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Gosh, people are seriously misunderstanding what I am saying!!

They are also ignoring the data. In regards to not typing on a tablet – I *am* a content producer! I a am NOT a Tablet user and do not want to be! I am not ADVOCATING the Tablet!! I am, however, trying to read market trends.

I have NOT said the PC will disappear entirely!
I have explicitly said that the Tablet is USELESS in its current form for content production!
I have explicitly said that the PC as a desktop will continue!
Read what I say for cryin’ out loud!

I, too, expected people to buy a Tablet as supplement a laptop. That’s what I thought. But the data now suggests a trend otherwise, yeah, even in the workplace! There are many tasks that the Tablet is BETTER suited to than the laptop, even for work. (Sales systems, POS systems, medical reporting, note taking in lectures (especially with a pen input device,) etc, etc.

And the key point I made, which has been almost utterly ignored – except by the kindly civil 273 to whom I give me gracious regards – is that it is a different expectation of the user! The posters here on LQ will be content producers! They will need more than the Tablet. But how much do the posters on LQ reflect society as a whole? We know the answer to that one… The average user is a CONTENT CONSUMER. That’s the key! No-one is saying that the Tablet is a content production device.

No-one.

Got it?

Nobody. Not men. Not the anylists, not business, no-one. So saying, “The Tablet is useless for writing a term paper” is not in dispute!! (Though, with a keyboard it becomes possible.)
The thing is that the Tablet, according to the data, right now, IS replacing the laptop! It HAS killed the netbook! It is moving even into the Enterprise market. This is not conjecture anymore. It is fact. The question is now not the sales or the patter but the degree. If 90% of the population only want a big mobile phone with games... the Tablet satisfies their needs and they can use the desktop PC at work for that occasional letter they have to send where they cannot use email. The users in LQ do not reflect the wider, technophobic society (well, more uninterested in tech society.)

Even Bill gates talks of the Tablet being the PC in a ‘post-P’ world. Think she’s a Tbalet seller? And this was back in 2011?!

http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-...ormance-2011-5

Bill Gates: "The PC Is The Tablet"

And then ozzy…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...-PC-world.html

It goes on and on and on…
But this is just turning into a flame fest. I am likely to drop this. I wanted a discussion, not a war. Nobody is actually engaging with what I am saying, sans 273 so this thread is going nowhere.

I would except “This is a passing fad” if the facts of the case were discussed. I left links with evidence but it’s just rant city here. “The Tablet is useless for productivity.” We know!! That’s NOT the argument. What I saying is being *completely* ignored! Fer cryin’ out loud, to check whether I am using a Tablet to post when I have explicitly said that I DO NOT WANT a Tablet and that the Tablet is NOT GOOD for content production, tells me that people are definitely not reading what I typing. So this thread is meaningless.
I sincerely hope this is a fad but I am not convinced this time. I also thought that the Tablet was being bought to supplement the laptop but the sales figures now, seriously, suggest otherwise.

Thanks to 273 for his kind words and actual interaction with me. I’m too busy now and this is going nowhere.

If a moderator wishes to lock this thread its fine with me. I haven’t known flaming like this since University days, before mainstream internet.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 08:17 PM   #26
rokytnji
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Calm down

Here is some ammo for your cannons.

http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2013/03/...ech+-+Mixed%29

I am just drinking on a friday night being frisky, nothing more.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 09:00 PM   #27
suicidaleggroll
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Look, I think the main problem here is you're contradicting yourself. You keep saying a tablet is not a content producer, it's not meant to write a term paper, etc. If that's the case, then people need something else that can actually do those things, ala laptop/desktop. If that's the case, then how on earth is this statement from your OP true?

Quote:
The word on the street – and in business – is that the PC is dead. The PC is now the tablet.
That's what we're debating here. You keep saying that the tablet can not replace the desktop/laptop in many essential home user tasks, then you turn around and say the tablet has replaced the PC and the PC is dead. You can't have it both ways. If the tablet can not replace the PC, then the PC, by definition, is not dead. End of discussion...

Personally, I can't think of a SINGLE person I know who uses a computer professionally that could switch to a tablet and not drop their productivity significantly. As for me, I would be fired within a week if I tried to switch from a PC to a tablet, because my productivity would drop ten fold at a minimum. A tablet is NO replacement for a laptop, not even close. I don't know a single person who uses a tablet professionally. I don't know a single person who COULD use a tablet professionally without being fired for lack of productivity.

Look, I like tablets. I have an iPad, I love it, I use it nearly every day, however a tablet is a consumption device. Surfing the internet, watching videos, listing to music, that is IT. The form factor and interface of a tablet is not suitable for the tasks people require of laptops or desktops, therefore laptops and desktops are going nowhere.

Think of it this way. Imagine the laptop never existed and the tablet came first. The tablet is what everybody used in addition to a desktop (since a tablet can't do the necessary tasks that they would need a desktop for) for all of their portable computing needs. Then all of a sudden some magical company introduced the laptop. It's a tablet plus a REAL keyboard, a REAL operating system, and it can do anything you desire. It has the portability of a tablet, and the flexibility of a desktop. Holy crap, it can do everything! It's the best of both worlds. Every single news organization in the world would be reporting "the tablet is dead, the laptop reigns supreme!"

Think about that for a second, and then think back to where we are now. I wouldn't say the tablet is a fad, but it's certainly an accessory item. It's not necessary, it's a consumption device for people who can afford it, nothing more. It will never replace the PC, but it definitely has a place in the market share. I can see laptop sales dropping, but they will never disappear. I can see tablet sales rising, but they will never take hold and replace the PC. We're simply moving toward a new equilibrium, that's all.

Last edited by suicidaleggroll; 03-01-2013 at 09:35 PM.
 
Old 03-01-2013, 09:43 PM   #28
Randicus Draco Albus
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@suicidaleggroll
Nice post.
Quote:
Personally, I can't think of a SINGLE person I know who uses a computer professionally that could switch to a tablet
That correlates with my mentioning everyone I run into at work using laptops in both the office and classroom. The jobs that can be done with a tablet are few. Which resurrects another point I made concerning business. Businesses will continue to buy and use PCs in desktop form, because they must. Tablets cannot do the job. PCs in laptop form will continue to be bought and used by people who need a mobile computer, not just a mobile internet connection device.

As for the market trends and sales figures:
Computer retailers seem to be doing quite well. Every store and market I see is filled with desktop and laptop PCs. Someone is buying them. There are more people with MP-whatevers than one can shake a stick at, but companies that make CD and DVD players have not been put out if business. It is the same with computers. Tablets are just one more gadget added to the number of options. I doubt computer manufactures have reason to fear hand-held doom-hickies in the near future. Long-term future? Who knows what will happen, but both laptop and desktop PCs will be around for a few more years.

"No. The sky is not falling." Is not ranting. Is not abuse. Is not ignorant. Is not stupid. Is not trolling.
Perhaps it is wise or enlightened?
 
Old 03-01-2013, 10:19 PM   #29
Ztcoracat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by everest40 View Post
Ubuntu is definitely coming to phones/tablets. Just go over to DuckDuckGo or Google or similar and search for "Ubuntu for phones". I hear that Make Play Live is also still working on their KDE-based "Vivaldi" tablet. Linux is adapting

When I got my ZaTab tablet, one of the first accessories I bought for it was a case with a built-in keyboard. There are still so many times when you want to enter text, such as typing a URL into a browser or sending a quick email, that getting a real keyboard was worth it. I also occasionally plug in a mouse. The laptop form isn't dead; it's just evolving. I can have a "laptop" when I need it and a tablet the rest of the time.

Mark Shuttleworth was successful with putting Ubuntu on an Android!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO7QbCqFY7Y
 
Old 03-01-2013, 10:25 PM   #30
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Quote:
We're simply moving toward a new equilibrium, that's all.
suicidaleggroll; I couldn't agree more! Indubitably so!
 
  


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