Linux in a post PC world (Read: Tablet world)?
 

The word on the street – and in business – is that the PC is dead. The PC is now the tablet.

The netbook is officially dead. There are no new netbooks being built at all. To survive manufacturers have had to go 100% tablet. Laptop sales are also being *decimated*. I predict that by the end of 2013 the laptop will be killed off. If it does survive it will be as a niche market at twice current price. Desktops will survive for ‘professional use’ meaning anyone who wants to produce something (only 10% of users) and at inflated prices. Even business is turning tablet and, with the arrival of tablet docking stations, I can see industry going majority tablet too.

The fact is, and I am on the ground on this, that 90% of users are just that – users. They are content consumers. They don’t wordprocess, use spreadsheets, program or video edit. Instead, outside of work, they want their computer to be an entertainment and communications device. If a tablet will go on the internet, do facebook, download and play movies and play games while on the move…! They are more than happy. In fact, they are delighted! When I tell users that the tablet has taken over, they don’t grieve – they smile. The Tablet is the ‘non-computer’ they always wanted. Not having to think about CD’s, productivity or anything ‘techie’ what the average user wants. That means 90% of the market is going to go, and is going, Tablet. Hence, everyone in the know concurs that the PC is now the Tablet and the Tablet the PC. The full blown PC desktop is just going to be an expensive tool for ‘specialists.’ Which means prices are going to go up fast and hard while prices of Tablets are going to drop and power increase.
So how is Linux going to handle this? The revolution came faster than anyone expected. I know Android is Linux but it’s a content consumption version of Linux and not the full, CLI, ‘Libreoffice’ Kdenlive rendering. (Hey, just to have a version of Linux that could be run offline AT ALL, I had to go with Slackware!!! The world has changed already.)

I don’t see a tablet rendering of *unbuntu, or Mint, or SUSE or Slackware. What’s going to happen here? Are we just going to be relegated to desktops (won’t work for me as a teacher) or will Linux adapt?

Ideas?

And with the recent invention of helicopter rotors, I predict that by the end of 2013 the automobile will be killed off. If it does survive it will be as a niche market at twice the current price.

So no one uses a computer to play music CDs or watch DVDs anymore? They only watch and listen to things on-line? If lap-tops will disappear by the end of the year, home CD and DVD players will disappear before the end of the month.

Oh yeah.:rolleyes:

>And with the recent invention of helicopter rotors, I predict that by the end of 2013 the automobile will be killed off. If it does survive it will be as a niche market at twice the current price.

Your anology doesn’t work. The helecopter *is* a niche market and is highly expensive. Most drivers use motorcars which are comparitively expensive. As Steve Jobs rightly foresaw, the Tablet has become the car and the PC truck – to use his analogy. I don’t like it – it just is. Have you seen the figures?

>So no one uses a computer to play music CDs or watch DVDs anymore? They only watch and listen to things on-line? If lap-tops will disappear by the end of the year, home CD and DVD players will disappear before the end of the month.

Yes, but the DVD or music is a content CONSUMPTION device. That’s the my point. Content consumption continues in all its forms. I am taklng about content producers which the vast majority of users are *not.* The PC will continue, as I say, but for professional users – those who use their PC for productivity. He majority of users want a portable comms/entertainment device . My time is limited so I can’t link now but just goggle ‘Tablet versus laptop sales’ or ‘Post-PC’ world and see what is happening. It’s a revolution out there!

Besides, one can argue that the PC did not completely kill the typewriter but lets be straight.. the typewriter is no longer a mainstream device. The PC will survive I contend but as a largely specialist device. It’s not me alone who is saying this – it is the industry.

Ubuntu is definitely coming to phones/tablets. Just go over to DuckDuckGo or Google or similar and search for "Ubuntu for phones". I hear that Make Play Live is also still working on their KDE-based "Vivaldi" tablet. Linux is adapting :)

When I got my ZaTab tablet, one of the first accessories I bought for it was a case with a built-in keyboard. There are still so many times when you want to enter text, such as typing a URL into a browser or sending a quick email, that getting a real keyboard was worth it. I also occasionally plug in a mouse. The laptop form isn't dead; it's just evolving. I can have a "laptop" when I need it and a tablet the rest of the time.

In a word - bullshit. My helicopter analogy was intended to show how misguided the prediction is.

The personal/business computer will not disappear. It will evolve. Nor is the tablet the future. As it is, the tablet is useless for anything other than surfing the internet. It too will evolve. Eventually, they will be the same thing. A small computer with the full power and capabilities of today's computers.

Not to mention possible future developments that are currently being worked on; such as a flexible plastic screen that can be rolled up like a piece of paper. If or when that is a reality, add a flexible touch pad and the result will be nothing like either a PC or tablet. Or the computer could evolve in a completely different direction neither you nor I have considered.

Does anyone remember similar predictions about the paperless office? When the internet and e-mail were invented, many people predicted the disappearance of paper from offices within five or ten years, because the computer and e-mail made paper obsolete. That prediction was right on the money.

The prediction in the OP of this thread is in the same realm as predictions of Microsoft collapsing within a year or two, because Windows 7 will cause people to abandon Windows for systems they do not know exist. But there will never be an end of people making long-term prophesies based on very short-term sales trends.

>In a word - bullshit. My helicopter analogy was intended to show how misguided the prediction is.

It never ceases to amaze me how the internet can draw abuse from people. If I am wrong, and I would be delighted to be, then show me... gently. I am happy to be refuted but let’s temper it down a bit, ok?

The helicopter analogy may have been attempting to how misguided my prediction (but it’s NOT mine!! It’s the analysts!) But, because it drew an incorrect parallel, it was not convincing.

The rest of your argument, however, is valid and I will engage it.

>The personal/business computer will not disappear. It will evolve.

I did not say it would. I said it become specialist, used by a minority of the population.

> Nor is the tablet the future.

The selling figures suggest otherwise. The analysts suggest otherwise. You want links?

>As it is, the tablet is useless for anything other than surfing the internet.

And playing games, and watching movies on the move, and making presentations, the things that people want to do most of the time. In fact, a tablet is better for sales people, better for POS systems, better for medical reporting, better for a hundred tasks that the PC’s lack of real portability can do. Sure, the Tabelt's crud for programing, spreadsheets or real word processing but how many people really carry out these activities at home? And what happens when Tablets get docking stations?

The Tablet is not a direct replacement for all that the PC desktop can do. I never said that. I said that the Tablet serves the needs of the majority of users! And that’s why it’s taking over because it is very, very good at what 90% of users want to do!! Now, where will the market go? With 10% or 90% of the population?

> It too will evolve. Eventually, they will be the same thing. A small computer with the full power and capabilities of today's computers.

Yes, with a docking station. But that means that the BASIS of future technology will be the tablet. And, furthermore, now the Tablet has set the template for what people want in portable devices, the form will remain the same. If it doesn’t, the tablet ceases to provide what has made it so successful.

>Not to mention possible future developments that are currently being worked on; such as a flexible plastic screen that can be rolled up like a piece of paper. If or when that is a reality, add a flexible touch pad and the result will be nothing like either a PC or tablet. Or the computer could evolve in a completely different direction neither you nor I have considered.

All probably true and has nothing to do with the CURRENT takeover by the Tablet!! Until these technologies arrive and we see what direction they go in, they are irrelevant to this discussion.

>Does anyone remember similar predictions about the paperless office? When the internet and e-mail were invented, many people predicted the disappearance of paper from offices within five or ten years, because the computer and e-mail made paper obsolete. That prediction was right on the money

But you make the mistake of assuming that I have said that the PC will DISAPPEAR! I have NOT said that. I have said that the laptop is going to disappear but not the PC as a whole. I have said that the PC is likely to become a requirement of specialist users who content produce. The internet and emails did not make a dent in paper in the office but tablets are having an impact on the PC market RIGHT NOW!

Bear in mind… the calculator did kill the slide rule. Windows did kill DOS and OS/2 (and GEM a long time ago.) The internet did kill telex. The desktop PC did kill off the mini-computer (not mainframe, mind.) Games consoles did kill off every other home computer except the Mac including the Spectrum, C64, Amiga and ST/Falcon. The tablet has killed the netbook already. Revolutions do happen sometimes. Hey, IBM thought that the personal computer was a passing fad. Opps!

>The prediction in the OP of this thread is in the same realm as predictions of Microsoft collapsing within a year or two, because Windows 7 will cause people to abandon Windows for systems they do not know exist.

I have not made such a prediction. Windows 7 was always going to be a hit. But the tablet is a different technology and one technology has ALREADY BEEN WIPED OUT by the Tablet. And it’s not just me, it’s the vast range of analysts. I do not want this to be true, it’s just what I see happening.

>But there will never be an end of people making long-term prophesies based on very short-term sales trends.

See my point above. Sometimes revolutions do happen. And the sales trend has been running for three years now and is accelerating. Given the netbook is now dead and that laptop and desktop sales are being hit HARD – which was *not* expected, the Tablet is making an impact. And I have not said that the PC will die out, more that the basis of computing is shifting to be Tablet based and the PC is likely to be the province of specialist users. Once you have a docking station for the Tablet with keyboard, mouse and 15” flat screen display, why do you need a PC anymore? Answer, you do if you are a gamer or specialist user but that only equals 10% of the population – my point. I mean, when I tell people the future of computing is the tablet… you should see the smiles!! The average user LOVES that idea.

If the Tablet grows to be a PC equivalent, then my point still stands. It means that Linux must also adapt to handle a Tabletcentric world. I know that Android and other Tablet style OS’s exist but you can’t run current, desktop style apps on them. How do we adjust to that?

>The laptop form isn't dead; it's just evolving. I can have a "laptop" when I need it and a tablet the rest of the time.

I follow this. But this evolution is now on the basis on the Tablet being the base technology.
How many users are going to keep a laptop? Really? If the tablet surfs the web, does facebook, plays movies and games, how many are going to bother with a laptop?

Screw a tablet! My girl ordered an iPad mini for me & when I came home she said I have a surprise for you, I just ordered you an iPad ( QVC flex pay is the shit) & I was like NOOOO why would you do that baby you know I don't want that bull*ish! Sorry I had to break her heart but that's just not my cup of tea. Cancelled that order, searched for a new laptop to meet my specs & a week later my Toshiba Satellite S855-S5164 arrived. Thank you Lord!

Point is the PC is just too powerful and important for so many things that the tablet can't do. All these peripheral devices that have been purchased would be almost useless for too many folks out there. Something as simple as word processing then sending it off to the printer the tablet can't do unless it's one of those wireless type printers & people aren't gonna abandon their perfectly good device that they paid good money for just to get another 1 with an antenna. The gamer market I feel is a little bigger than 10% but I could be wrong. Programmers, hobbyist, hackers, x86 lovers, & gamers would all suffer & that population has to be greater than 10%. Certainly not by the end of this year my Toshiba is going away (I love her too much to leave her) and a ton of other folks probably feel the same way.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

When I refer to the future, I am not referring to three or four years from now. I am thinking about 10 or fifteen years into the future. Yes, tablets are a fad right now, but for how long?


A tablet is essentially a stripped-down lap-top. So when devices are added to it in the future to make it a light-weight lap-top, it will be the basis of development. Is it sufficient if I merely say I disagree with that logic?

It can be equally argued that today's mobile telephone is the template for what people want. They can do most (or all?) of the things tablets can do. Just with a smaller screen.


Like I stated last time; long-term predictions based on short-term trends. Or more precisely, what is happening this very moment.


Again, you missed the point. That was an example of how people, including "analysts", were quick to make revolutionary predictions, which is always unwise.

:scratch: I thought Windows was a GUI on top of DOS (could not operate without DOS). So how did it kill DOS?

Try reading a little more carefully. I wrote your prediction "is in the same realm as" predictions recently made on this board concerning the demise of MS.


1 - That would make it a light-weight lap-top.
2 - It is conjecture. One of many possible future scenarios.
Which brings us to:

The problem is not raising a discussion about future possibilities, but with too many people on internet boards stating how things will definitely be, because they believe so.

"I believe there is a possibility of ... happening, because ... What do you think?"
This kind of hypothesis invites discussion.

"This ... will happen, because I know it will."
or;
"This ... will happen, because a few analysts say so."
This invites rebuke from annoyed readers.

Cool!

I mean, I am not *wedded* to the idea that the Tablet is going to take over.
I sincerely hope your right.

I agree that the Tablet is limited. It's just that it appears to be limited in a way that people like!

When tablets become general purpose computers they'll be used for general purpose computing, until then desktops and laptops will be used. You can't type a long document without a physical keyboard and working on large documents is a pain when they're not stored locally even over a fast network. Neither of those things is a niche -- both are what is going on in the majori of offices now and that won't change just because the executives ike tablets or people own tablets at home.
As for home use, well, computers were a niche at home when Linux was started and when the older distros like Slackware and Debian were being introduced yet they still appeared. I do tend to agree that for many people the tablet can replace the PC but they are the people who should never have bought a PC in the first place. Those who want to play games, create content and other tasks will still buy PCs be they in laptop or desktop form.
So, my take on it is we'll go back to the situation a decade or so ago where some own PCs but most don't the only difference being that those who don't will own a tablet or phone. That's hardly the death of the general-purpose personal computer.
Typed, very slowly, on my iPad.

I stopped reading here...
And again here...

The "word on the street" - who? Just random people? The newspapers? The tech press? The companies selling these products - who?

Jobs was in the tablet business... I'm in the bananas business and you're in the oranges business - "oranges are dead, bananas are where it's at - and that's not just because I'm in the bananas business... honest".

When I come into work one day and find that we're all using tablets to do everything then I'll believe that the desktop/laptop PC is dead.

I think it's sad that the same kind of marketing bollocks you find in the fashion industry is now invading computing... "oh you use a laptop? That's soooooo last week...", etc.

>Quote: When I refer to the future, I am not referring to three or four years from now. I am thinking about 10 or fifteen years into the future. Yes, tablets are a fad right now, but for how long?

Hmm... Three years and sheer volume suggests more than a fad to me. But I am happy to be proven wring. I don’t WANT the tablet to take over. I am not wedded to the Tablet in anyway. But the data so far is… perturbing.
Quote:
Yes, with a docking station. But that means that the BASIS of future technology will be the tablet.
>A tablet is essentially a stripped-down lap-top. So when devices are added to it in the future to make it a light-weight lap-top, it will be the basis of development. Is it sufficient if I merely say I disagree with that logic?
The touchscreen interface, the form factor, the basis of use are quite different to the PC. If the Tablet becomes the basis of computing in that the processors are different, the interface is different, the form factor is different and the software is different unless we are saying that the Apple Mac is a development of the PC? Yes, if a Tablet is plugged into a docking station to make it like a laptop then, yes, the Tablet becomes a semi-laptop. I do not deny that. But the primary interface will still be touch screen. The OS will be distinct from desktop OS’s such as Linux and Windows. That changes the S/W that can and will be run and it changes the development path. Linux will have to adapt to a different way of working in a major way! I agree that you cannot escape the desktop as a concept completely but I do contend the Tablet provides the majority of users with what they really want! The laptop MINUS functionality the user does not want appears to be the way users are going. It means the ‘all in one – do everything PC’ is not going to be as mainstream as it has been.

>It can be equally argued that today's mobile telephone is the template for what people want. They can do most (or all?) of the things tablets can do. Just with a smaller screen.

Indeed! I have argued that the Tablet is a mobile phone that can do better games and play movies! And I do find that that is what people want – especially in Asia which is booming compared to the West right now! I will accept that logic! I do not see a discontinuity between the Tablet and the mobile. That being the case, the PC is not going to be the basis of computing development in the future!

>Like I stated last time; long-term predictions based on short-term trends. Or more precisely, what is happening this very moment.

Three years is a short trend. The total annihilation of the netbook is a short term trend? It’s not like I am the only one drawing this conclusion!

>Again, you missed the point. That was an example of how people, including "analysts", were quick to make revolutionary predictions, which is always unwise.

But Revolutions do happen. The internet has certainly been a revolution. The analysts were certainly correct on that one! You want to say that when Windows 95 came out and everyone said “DOS is dead, along with OS/2” were wrong?

Quote:
Windows did kill DOS
I thought Windows was a GUI on top of DOS (could not operate without DOS). So how did it kill DOS?
Windows NT was not based on the DOS kernel. By Windows 2000 the DOS based kernel was dead. And even Windows 3.1 put paid to DOS based applications in the main; Windows 95 completely minus games. That meant development was based on Windows API’s and not DOS. Development, interface design, even languages had to change completely to match Windows. Just because, for a while, Windows depended on DOS to start up was irrelevant in terms of software development which had to change dramatically. I assure you that when Windows 95 appeared the software houses I was working on were not coding for DOS!
Quote:
>The prediction in the OP of this thread is in the same realm as predictions of Microsoft collapsing within a year or two, because Windows 7 will cause people to abandon Windows for systems they do not know exist.

I have not made such a prediction.
>Try reading a little more carefully. I wrote your prediction "is in the same realm as" predictions recently made on this board concerning the demise of MS.

I read it fine, thank you. I was distinguishing between a prediction which was CLEARLY untrue (although, were you thinking more about Vista?) and something that the computing world almost unanimously holds to be true and happening now – not a prediction but actually happening! I am not predicting that the public are going to switch to Tablets – they ARE switching to Tablets, on mass! This invites predictions thank you.
Quote:
Once you have a docking station for the Tablet with keyboard, mouse and 15” flat screen display
1 - That would make it a light-weight lap-top.

No, it makes it a tablet which converts to a desktop! That means the laptop passes by. A laptop is portable and operates on a battery. If the Tablet takes over such that it becomes the laptop form, and then is plugged into a desktop adaptor than the laptop, as it exists now, is toast! It also means that Linux must adapt to Tablet technology, as must Windows. Different processors, different screen resolutions, different interface, etc, etc.

>2 - It is conjecture. One of many possible future scenarios.
So Laptops have not had docking stations? Sure, it is conjecture but it is LIKELY conjecture. If you had bought a Tablet and found you needed productivity but, given the cheap netbook is dead, will you buy a laptop for $500+ or a docking station for $200? I could guess the answer. And thinking about future technologies does not answer what is happening right now!
>The problem is not raising a discussion about future possibilities, but with too many people on internet boards stating how things will definitely be, because they believe so.

I understand that and I welcome discussion. Really I do! I am not opposed to discussion, even refutation! But there are ways and means… The Torvalds approach to discussion is not one I admire.

>"I believe there is a possibility of ... happening, because ... What do you think?"
>This kind of hypothesis invites discussion.

Of course, and I invite discussion! I am happy to be refuted. But, right now, there is a firm consensus, even down to talk of a ‘post-PC world.’

>"This ... will happen, because I know it will."
>or;
>"This ... will happen, because a few analysts say so."
Firstly, it is a LOT more than a few. That’s the point. And I have gone looking for those who who disagree with the analysis online and they have gone silent now in 2013. I am also making reference to facts on the ground – the sudden death of the netbook, the sheer volume of sales, the manufacturers dropping the laptop like a brick to make Tablets, the *worldwide* trending, etc, etc. Something is happening and it sure looks like a revolution!

>This invites rebuke from annoyed readers.

You do not have the right to ‘rebuke’ me. Who gave you the authority? Correct me, that’s one thing. Rebuke is something else. If I have broken post rules then let a moderator correct me. If I have made bad assumptions then challenge those. If you think I have gone too far then correct me. But rebuke is not yours to make. Also, wading in with swearing does not endear the gentle reader.

Honey attracts flies more than vinegar.

Now, I do not *want* a post-Pc world. I am not wedded to the idea. But it seems pretty clear to me that the world is changing. We are looking at a take up of the Tablet at a rate that exceeds the take up of the internet! Something serious is going on here!

If evidence can be provided that the laptop and desktop will NOT be relegated to specialist use than I am happy to hear it. Very happy. I am sure as hell not wishing a tablet take over!

---------- Post added 03-01-13 at 09:22 PM ----------

>The gamer market I feel is a little bigger than 10% but I could be wrong. Programmers, hobbyist, hackers, x86 lovers, & gamers would all suffer & that population has to be greater than 10%. Certainly not by the end of this year my Toshiba is going away (I love her too much to leave her) and a ton of other folks probably feel the same way.

Thinking about it, a few things here. Obviously those with laptops are not going to throw them away by the end of the year. Of course not! But we’re talking about replacement. I wonder how many people, when the laptop wears out, are going to replace with another laptop or going to jump to a tablet? How many are going to really use both, especially if the Tablet can be docked?

That’s the real question.

In relation to programmers and hackers, they are often one and the same and make up a TINY proportion of computer users. No, really. X86 users can jump to an Intel powered Tablet. But most people are not wedded to a processor, unless you mean Windows in which case the fans can by a Metro machine. In relation to gamers, there are different types of gamers. The Tablet is definitely winning younger users with the prospect of games on the move. Power gamers will stick with desktop gaming but I wonder how many people that really equals? I mean, how many female power gamers are there?

I am still not convinced that the needs of the general public are not better served – on their terms - by a tablet alone. You are probably different but I bet you are a content producer – word processing, possibly programming, maybe video editing – creating things. But most users are content *consumers!* Do they really want more than comms and entertainment? Based on my experience of the average user – not really, beyond the occasional printout.

I could be wrong. I would love to be wrong. But the sheer sales volume suggest otherwise.

But... that's actually my point! You just said it!!

>So, my take on it is we'll go back to the situation a decade or so ago where some own PCs but most don't the only difference being that those who don't will own a tablet or phone.

Exactly! Content consumers do not need or want anything beyond a Tablet. they were forced to buy something all purpose when their needs were very different! But that is, like 90% of users! Which means that around 10% of home users are going to be PC users.

Now, go back 10-20 years ago and how much did a desktop PC cost?
That's exactly my point! Also, though, the Tablet is being pitched as a enterprise device.

A decade ago personal computers, in the main, cost about what they do today. Yes, there are now more "bargain basement" computers but I can't see that changing as that's as much a result of moving manufacturing as it is volume.
I would also contend that most people who have bought tablets only bought a new PC every 5 years or so anyhow, and that combined with the cheap and cheerful machines they buy means they're not as much of the market as things may suggest.
Anyone who wants to do serious digital photography, make music, play PC-style games, create documents, develop software and web pages, edit movies or other tasks will likely have been buying more expensive PCs more often (or at least upgrading parts) than people who surf the net and wait until the next version of Windows is out.
In the same way Linux does not need (and in some ways does not want) "typical consumers" neither does the general purpose hardware industry.
I suppose we are lucky on pricing though -- you can get one hell of a PC for the price of an iPad!