I wanted to post a poll for this one but I've never really liked the 'soundbite' nature of polls.

What do I mean by 'critical mass' ? My understanding is that there are no definitive statistics apart from the number of uploads from kernel site mirrors.

In 20 years time there may only be one OS in common use, which would be open source and probably linux. I think that this is a very real scenario now - but a ubiquitous free, reliable and stable OS would not a bad thing.

Before that is reached though, at some point between being Microsoft's joke a few years ago (essentially a geek toy) and the supreme OS, a point will be reached where the future will be secured for Linux - free software will have won, and the rest will be history.

Has that point been reached?

I really like your options! I don't believe it's at this moment, but I do not believe it to be more than a year away either. Linux is on it's way up, and the hill is steep. I think we are talking months now, not years away from Linux Desktop 1.0. This will be in MANY homes, and will be supported by MANY. Linus should at least begin writing that speech

Cool

I dont think Linux will become "The OS" for at least another couple of years, if ever. Why?
Beacause it's still hard to administer and setup/configure properly for a average user, software (especially games, and commercial programs such as flash etc..) is missing, and then microsoft made sure windows will be pre-installed on most computers. And then does a average user really need Linux? I think a lot of people are happy being ignorant and using windows to play that neat $100 game. But it's nice to have a choice, and as more people learn about computers more of them will convert to Linux after realizing the advantages but that moment is still, in my oppinion, far away.
-NSKL

I'm pretty sure the numbre of people switching to or trying out linux has dropped massively since WindowsXP came out.

The Palladium thing is going to be affect Linux a lot, either by ruining everything by shutting us out or by annoying everyone else so they switch to nix.

Critical mass is close now Software Patents are stifling everything. If it continues people aren't going to legally allowed to write free software.
I'm not sure on how the rate of patents will effect things though. So far I've only encoutered a S3 texture compression method that initially stopped me from using GNU graphics drivers (DRI) from playing UT2003.
This is but one example. If GNU/Linux is successful it will probably due to the GNU bit and of course GNU is directly effected by the software patents coming out.

I'm off to set up a ralley in London.

I have to agree with NKSL. I don't think Linux has reached Crital Mass in the home enviorment. As for the Business end though Red Hat and Debian has made great strides. As for the average home user ask them what they want a computer for, the naswer I get from most, "to play games, burn cd's and browse the internet". A lot of people that I set their computer up for ask "What do I do now?" and this is on a windows system. I couldn't imagine Puting a real OS in front of them were you may have to configure a file or two to get something to work. Or using the source to install software. Half the people don't have the time, or so they say the other don't have the knowledge and none of them have the patience. Then talk about seting up security, forget it, they just want to install or already purchase an installed system and not wory about anything. I do on the other hand think that if Micr$oft keeps in the direction it is going it will have a major drop in the home market, "Hi Can I have Your Social Security and Birth Certificate Today?". Which will companys like Mandrake, Caldera, SuSe and Redhat among others A chance to expliot thier goods. The best thing about it is that you don't only get a better OS but you can basically choose your level, for example if you have never ran a LInux OS before then you can get Mandrake or Caldera. Maybe you want to try something were you have a little more control like Redhat or SuSe. Then again maybe you just want to dive straight in and go to Slackware or try a LFS(Linux From Scratch). Hell maybe even some will venture into FreeBSD or NetBSD but that is still a few years away. That will give some of the companies a chance to work on how to the OS to a point were reg Joe Bloe will walk into a store and buy it off the shelf with no install probs, well everything done for them any ways and a comprehensive manual to boot (<--lol a pun). Linux has made great strides as for mission critical servers and embedded devices in it's short time. But untill it can corner a home market all we can do is spread the word and maybe a little demonstration.

Well I have rattled Long enough.

I don't think it ever will. Linux is for people like us and myself who are creative and like to figure things out and understand science and computing etc. Windows has its place for people like my brother who just wanna play shoot-up games and never understand or question anything. I think that is the mass of people.

Linux will live but not for the mindless mass ....