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What do you think the Linux World will be one year from now:
Personally I feel the desktop will be a viable solution. Hopefully getting into the schools!!! via Novell.
Given with a month the Linux kernel 2.6 will be out and in one year 2.6.10 with new device drivers for all 32bit and 64bit ironed out. (Before Longhorn)
In Janary? 2004 KDE 3.2 with new bells and whistles. GNOME 2.4 will be improved upon along with many other widow managers. It is all about choice and what is best for the situation.
X widows with be incrementing to 4.4 soon. Along, with possible laternatives. Video card driver with improve and hopefully find their way into GPL.
But, most importantly is the fact that 2.6 will have a major jump on 64bit hardware.
Just a couple of things that I see.
50% of the desktop market share is wishfull thinking. As Microsoft continues to develop products that are more and more "user friendly", people become less likely to switch to something that requres cognitive thought. For example, todays breed of teenagers can't do math in their head or make change without the cash register telling them now much because they are dependent on calculators. Now granted, Linux will continue to grow and will take a respectfull share in the desktop market, but not 50%.
I see the growth in workstations and servers. It is only a matter of time before the technology arena will hire like crazy again. Only now, companies understand the need for such people and don't just see them as overhead. With the cost saving capabilites of Linux servers and workstations, I forsee IT managers implenting such solutions on a grand scale. Business choose Windows because they see no other viable options. Linux is now known to be a viable option.
Just my .02
Last edited by Glock Shooter; 11-20-2003 at 01:55 AM.
I think the new generation of Linux products will be amazing (regardless of the distro) but unfortunately I don't see it gaining a whole lot more acceptance from the general public. Will it be a viable desktop solution? Yes. Will it be used as a mainstream alternative to Windows? No. The MS marketing machine has the general public believing that Windows is the only viable desktop solution. Only the tech savy, those that like to research things out before buying, and those that Glock mentioned know differently. Linux will always take a back seat as far as market share as long as the big PC manufactures and publications are grovelling at Gates' feet. The important thing for the success of Linux (on all fronts) is for us as users to support the Linux community and to tell others of why we prefer Linux to Windows.........word of mouth can go along ways......i tell two friends and then they tell two friends....and then those four tell two friends....then those eight tell two friends....and so on and so forth and then microsoft is either bankrupt or selling the OS for the 10 bucks that it's actually worth!
Trust me. It will definitely reach 50 % after 10 years. Not now.
You guys can easily guess if you stick around with the Linux news.
It will be starting from the governments.
You guys know that the whole china government will migrate from windows to Linux next year? About 500 millions desktops!!!!! from Windows to the Sun's desktop!!!! Sun's Linux will straight away become the highest market share in desktop Linux.
Now, again in Thailand, government is doing Linux campaign and all the ppl are using Linux already. Microsoft is too afraid that they are selling their Winodows XP with only $37 in Thailand!!!!
And Brazil and German govenrnments already migrate all their desktop to Linux. And all other governments are thinking about migrating to Linux now.
And another thing is that, Microsoft has no friend. The whole computer industry hate it. That's the key thing. They cannot fight the whole industry. Sooner or later they will fail unless they change their attitute.
And yes, microsoft continue to develop. So do Linux. Even faster than them.
Now you guys know that Mandrake 9.2 and SuSE 9.0 are already as user friendly as windows.
So in next 5 years, Linux will become more user friendly than windows and in next 10 years, it will gain 50% of market share.
I'll cut off my head if it won't happen.
Last edited by moeminhtun; 11-20-2003 at 02:45 AM.
GrapeApe: It's not word of mouth as much as getting linux ONTO the machine. I tell people that I have linux and that it's badass and they respond with "Cool. So...."(even the geeks)
I have been trying to learn as much as I can as quickly as I can about setting up linux machines with the software people use and making it usable so that I can get it installed on other's comps. I tell everyone that if they're willing to try it (after my few minute speal) that I will get them discs and I they can always call me if they need help.
For example, todays breed of teenagers can't do math in their head or make change without the cash register telling them now much because they are dependent on calculators.
That's kinda unfair....I can't multiply in my head quickly and I do just fine in linux and in programming(however early I am in my C class). As a better example I know a rocket scientist and he can't do it very quickly in his head either, when you have more important things to worry about you use a calculator. Intelligence isn't measured by memorization.
On the topic of windows:
I think that windows will begin attacking viciously everyone else(oh wait they have ), try to keep a good image(and with the hate for windows of the common user I doubt that's going to happen) and still win all their lawsuits because they have power in the goverment.
As GrapeApe mentioned, word of mouth and a growing installation base lead to a brighter future for linux as a whole, more capitol, more devolopment.
Originally posted by jayakrishnan when a 12 yr old kid can use linux why not all others?
My friends cousin is 12 yrs old and uses linux with ease. Uses it to play games, surf net, listen to music, see cartoons vids, even to some extent the CLI.
That's because he's 12, he doesn't have the windoze thinking implemented. For a guy that's 30 or so and had worked all his life with micro$oft products, it will be kind of hard to get use to linux; to actualy use your brains for a change, not click&go, where_do_you_wanna_crash_today or give_me_back_my_BSOD.
With KDE 3.2 coming soon and all the software with gui, all linux distros will win the market pretty fast. Just propose to any company that uses micro$oft to cut off (at least by 50%) their expenses by switching to linux. I can't imagine the manager that will say no to money saving, can you
In 10 years Linux will have at least 50% of the desktops in countries other than the United States which will still being dominated by Windows and resisting the metric system.
Actually, a lot may depend in what happens in the lull before Longhorn. If IBM or Sun were to promote Linux big time during that time it could make a major difference. I think Mandrake is ready for the masses (it passes the grandmother test with my mom), but if the penguin never gets airtime the way the butterfly does... IBM mentions it in server ads, but that just contributes to the impression that Linux is something for servers.
I think Linux on the desktop may be a bigger deal in China before it is in North America.
Personally I'd like to see another release of Windowmaker, they haven't had one in awhile and there are a few rough edges that could use some polish. It would also be nice to see enlightenment 0.17 finally released.
...For example, todays breed of teenagers can't do math in their head or make change without the cash register telling them now much because they are dependent on calculators.
That is a gross generalisation!
I am from the UK, am 16, taking 5 AS levels (Furthur Maths, Maths, Physics, Chemistry and Systems and Control) have 12 GCSE's at grade B and above (5A*'s, 3A's, 4B's if you really want to know )
I agree that MS software is becoming more for brain dead users :S but i think that as linux develops it will become more accepted by users. I have spoken to several people including out "Microsoft Certified" system admin about Linux and they all say that they think that it is too difficult to use, they also see it as too "unrealiable". SuSE is beginning to deal with eas of use system otherewise i just think that it is a case of educating people.
In 1 years time we will have seen just furthur development of Linux and its software. I dont see their being any great quantum leap just a steady system of improvement and development