LinuxQuestions.org
Visit Jeremy's Blog.
Go Back   LinuxQuestions.org > Forums > Linux Forums > Linux - Distributions
User Name
Password
Linux - Distributions This forum is for Distribution specific questions.
Red Hat, Slackware, Debian, Novell, LFS, Mandriva, Ubuntu, Fedora - the list goes on and on... Note: An (*) indicates there is no official participation from that distribution here at LQ.

Notices

Reply
 
Search this Thread
Old 11-22-2012, 11:23 AM   #1
rng
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 747

Rep: Reputation: 23
Which distros will be more popular after 1 year?


Which distros are likely to become more popular in the coming year and why?

Also, what do you think are the main reasons behind success of a linux distribution?
 
Old 11-22-2012, 11:47 AM   #2
dugan
Senior Member
 
Registered: Nov 2003
Location: Canada
Distribution: distro hopper
Posts: 4,684

Rep: Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441Reputation: 1441
Quote:
Originally Posted by rng View Post
Also, what do you think are the main reasons behind success of a linux distribution?
The average distro tends to become more popular around the time of a new release.
 
Old 11-22-2012, 12:35 PM   #3
DavidMcCann
Senior Member
 
Registered: Jul 2006
Location: London
Distribution: CentOS, Salix
Posts: 3,075

Rep: Reputation: 789Reputation: 789Reputation: 789Reputation: 789Reputation: 789Reputation: 789Reputation: 789
How do we know the popularity? The Distrowatch page is very easy to fix: look at the suspicious way in which Mageia shot up to second place when there was no publicity for it! And the number of hits only reflects current newsworthyness, not actual use: you might hear about something, check out some reviews via Distrowatch, and decide "not on my computer!"
 
Old 11-22-2012, 03:06 PM   #4
NyteOwl
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2008
Location: Nova Scotia, Canada
Distribution: Slackware, OpenBSD, others periodically
Posts: 512

Rep: Reputation: 139Reputation: 139
Distrowatch "rankings" aren't an indication of anything more than the number of times distrowatch readers download a particular distro from distrowatch. It's liek Alexa web rankings. Those rankings only include site visits from peopel who install the Alexa toolbar in IE. A very skewed and distorted view.
 
Old 11-22-2012, 04:51 PM   #5
onebuck
Moderator
 
Registered: Jan 2005
Location: Midwest USA, Central Illinois
Distribution: SlackwareŽ
Posts: 11,204
Blog Entries: 3

Rep: Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433Reputation: 1433
Moderator Response

Moved: This thread is more suitable in <Linux-Distribution> and has been moved accordingly to help your thread/question get the exposure it deserves.
 
Old 11-22-2012, 06:50 PM   #6
rng
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 747

Original Poster
Rep: Reputation: 23
Most major distributions are very stable now. Also, most give choice for desktop that can be used (kde, gnome, LXDE, xfce). Most are regularly updated. Most support the average hardware well. So, finally it may just come down to availablity of applications and ease of their installation in a distro. So ubuntu and ubuntu based distros are likely to continue to be top in popularity amongst regular computer users who try linux.

Last edited by rng; 11-22-2012 at 07:02 PM.
 
Old 11-22-2012, 08:36 PM   #7
Berhanie
Senior Member
 
Registered: Dec 2003
Location: phnom penh
Distribution: Fedora
Posts: 1,625

Rep: Reputation: 165Reputation: 165
Quote:
Originally Posted by NyteOwl View Post
Distrowatch "rankings" aren't an indication of anything more than the number of times distrowatch readers download a particular distro from distrowatch.
According their explanation, the number is the average hits per day for a distribution page on distrowatch, with each IP addresss allowed only one hit per day.
 
Old 11-24-2012, 02:42 AM   #8
rng
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 747

Original Poster
Rep: Reputation: 23
Since most sites offer linux applications in deb & rpm formats, a wine-like application for installing deb and rpm files will be very useful.
 
Old 11-24-2012, 02:57 AM   #9
m.a.l.'s pa
Member
 
Registered: Oct 2007
Location: albuquerque
Posts: 198

Rep: Reputation: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidMcCann View Post
How do we know the popularity? The Distrowatch page is very easy to fix: look at the suspicious way in which Mageia shot up to second place when there was no publicity for it! And the number of hits only reflects current newsworthyness, not actual use: you might hear about something, check out some reviews via Distrowatch, and decide "not on my computer!"
Yep. After looking over a review today, I took a look at Linux Mint's and Snowlinux's DW pages -- neither of which I have any intention of installing/using at this time. Never bothered to click on the DW pages for the distros that I'm actually running here.
 
Old 11-24-2012, 02:29 PM   #10
salasi
Senior Member
 
Registered: Jul 2007
Location: Directly above centre of the earth, UK
Distribution: SuSE, plus some hopping
Posts: 3,902

Rep: Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775
Quote:
Originally Posted by rng View Post
Which distros are likely to become more popular in the coming year and why?
Well, a good guess would be the distros that have very few users at the moment. So, it would be very easy for a distro that has no users currently (for example, a distro that hasn't yet had its first release) to have a massive increase in user numbers. Why? Well because they don't have any users.

Another possibility would be any distro to which people bailing out of existing distro go to. So, if, for example, you think that Gnome's currently unpopular interface will become even more so, any distro that stays with with the 'old fashioned' Gnome interface would be a likely destination.

As. more generally, a few people seem to be becoming disaffected with Ubuntu, anywhere that they might go to, such as Mint, has a chance.

Any distro specialising in a GUI that becomes more popular (Bodhi, I'd guess, as there is a big release of E17 due, Lubuntu for LXDE, for example, which must be another reasonable bet for increasing popularity, probably XFCE would be in there, if there is a 'big' release forthcoming, but I'm not sure if there is one of those due within 12 months).

Please do say how any of this could help.
 
Old 11-25-2012, 10:44 AM   #11
rng
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 747

Original Poster
Rep: Reputation: 23
Quote:
Please do say how any of this could help.
It is good to know which distribution is on the rise for longer term so that one does not have to change distribution every few months. The biggest factor is likely to be available applications for any distribution. According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compari..._distributions the number of precompiled packages vary widely even amongst major distributions. Accordingly, some distros are trying "debianization" etc (http://puppylinux.org/wikka/debianization) so as to use larger repositories. A wine like application which can install deb or rpm packages in any distro will be very popular. Packagekit (http://www.packagekit.org/) is also interesting.
 
Old 11-25-2012, 02:24 PM   #12
salasi
Senior Member
 
Registered: Jul 2007
Location: Directly above centre of the earth, UK
Distribution: SuSE, plus some hopping
Posts: 3,902

Rep: Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775Reputation: 775
So, you'd like to adopt a distro that you don't like because other people are going to use it, and you'd like to go for a currently unpopular distro to do it. OK, whatever approach you want to take (it is all about freedom) but don't blame anyone else if it takes you up a blind alley.
 
Old 11-25-2012, 07:48 PM   #13
rng
Member
 
Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 747

Original Poster
Rep: Reputation: 23
Maybe I am not able to make my point clear. It appears that finally there will be only one or two widely used distributions and that will depend on software authors providing applications in their format. All other distributions will remain for small specific groups of users only. This will be helpful if someone does not want to change his installation every now and then.
 
Old 11-25-2012, 08:24 PM   #14
pixellany
LQ Veteran
 
Registered: Nov 2005
Location: Annapolis, MD
Distribution: Arch/XFCE
Posts: 17,802

Rep: Reputation: 728Reputation: 728Reputation: 728Reputation: 728Reputation: 728Reputation: 728Reputation: 728
I think that the world of Linux distributions will continue to have high entropy for many years to come. There is no market force that stops people from creating new ones, and others fade away at random. The ones that have money behind them will stay in the top 20 or so---others will just keep churning around.
 
  


Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
LXer: 5 popular Linux distros LXer Syndicated Linux News 0 08-09-2012 02:21 PM
LXer: What's Popular In The Linux World This Year LXer Syndicated Linux News 0 10-29-2011 06:01 PM
LXer: What Makes Debian One of the Most Popular Distros Out There? LXer Syndicated Linux News 9 09-19-2010 09:11 PM
LXer: Most popular Linux distros LXer Syndicated Linux News 0 06-23-2010 02:20 PM
Why is Ubuntu and its splinter distros so popular jqpdev Linux - Desktop 38 03-25-2010 04:38 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:33 AM.

Main Menu
My LQ
Write for LQ
LinuxQuestions.org is looking for people interested in writing Editorials, Articles, Reviews, and more. If you'd like to contribute content, let us know.
Main Menu
Syndicate
RSS1  Latest Threads
RSS1  LQ News
Twitter: @linuxquestions
identi.ca: @linuxquestions
Facebook: linuxquestions Google+: linuxquestions
Open Source Consulting | Domain Registration