Do you think microsoft will go down?
 

Do you think M$ will die off eventually within 5-10 yrs? if so what do you think will happen?

They will eventually have to adjust to normal growth just like all big companies that hit the top of the boom. They can't maintain the current growth rate due to market saturation. IBM went through this and survived, so perhaps MS will survive also, tho they may need to restructure... Some companies don't survive past the boom, so we shall just have to see. In 10 years MS may be just one of the crowd again - and tho we may talk about windows compatible just as we talk about IBM compatible, it doesn't mean they will be on top... Even if they are on top, it may be a much flatter heap of software distributors than we have now

everything dies off, I'm just hoping its soon, and painful for M$

Microsoft dying off is really just wishful thinking.. No matter what the people in this forum tell you, microsoft does have a nice niche built for themselves (granted 92% of the market is a rather LARGE niche). Although their market share may dwindle in the future, there is very little chance of them imploding.

Microsoft may die off. You never know. Don't forget the old saying folks:

"The higher you climb, the harder you fall."

There's a lot of truth to that saying. Life is far, far stranger than what we can even imagine.

Nobody thinks they will simply implode, but it's also true that they can't continue in the future as they have in the past. The growth just isn't going to be there and the shareholders are not going to continue getting the returns they were getting in the past... Already the cracks are showing and many in MS are seeing a few perks vanish. They will need to change in the future as the situation changes. Some companies have done okay with this in the past, like say IBM, but others didn't change so well, like RCA or others...

But big companies do go under, and MS could easily go that way as many have done in the past. Nothing is a sure thing and who would have thought at certain times to see an end to Pan Am or Netscape or 3DFX or RCA or many others. Look at the turbulent times that Apple have had.

MS can't just relax in the glory of being a big fish in the IT world (but nowhere near the biggest company, IBM is still a lot bigger I believe) and we can already see how hard they are fighting in some areas.

THe next few years will be interesting anyway, and linux will plod along doing it's own thing whatever MS decides to do...

MS going down soon is as likely as Sony going down sometime soon.

not soon, but they will. when computers become obsolete.

They will die, eventually. But I see that 20 years from now if not later.

Yves.

nuka_t: yes one day, when we evolve into a telepathic race, and a network called the telenet out of our telepathic abilities, and we can access it anytime, we can access others shared memory's, and watch live things thru other peoples eyes, and we can all know what others know in an instant

then someone like billy boy can come along and turn us all into drones ....... fear assimilation!

What was Netscape's market share for browsers? Closer to 100% I think, before Microsoft killed them by giving away their browser for free.

There is a lesson to learn here. When someone pulls the rug from under your feet you may fall faster and harder than you think. Microsoft makes its money from Windows. I would be pretty scared if someone could offer an equal or superior product for free.

Martin

Everything dies off.

And I still think that within, say, 50 years, maybe more, people won't even remember what windows was, or linux for that matter.

As much as i would like to see M$ go away, i dont think they are going anywhere soon, There are far too many computer illiterate people out there that dont even know what linux is, or even that there is anything to use BESIDES windows or mac. If the programers of windows were accualy doing it for the enjoyment of coding instead of the money, chances are they would be making some MUCH better and safer software.

I see M$ as Umbrella corp from Resident evil. Trying to control the world but consumed in its own corruption. Just imagine, one day your sitting at your comp, it BSOD's and it eats your brain :D

i doubt they will go away, but with some of the steps that M$ has take starting with XP i see things getting smaller for M$ in the market share. i see Novell stepping back up big time, and i see Linux getting a much larger foot hold in the market share too.

all things are possible, but i doubt that M$ will disapear. they might lose an extra 10-40% of the market share, but i doubt in the next 10 years if they will be anything less then the largest out there still.

As long as we have computers, technology, the internet, etc Microsoft will always be a major player in the game. It's wishful thinking to just wish they would go away. Open Source will be a rival but rivals are a good thing not a bad one. A bad one would be having no competition because then you could just rest on your laurels. McDonald$ had everyone from Carls Jr, Burger King, Wendys, Taco Bell and KFC competing and they still are the top fastfood franchise. Even with health concerns, low carb crazed diets, competition from better franchises with better tasting food etc...people still want their McDonalds. Part of it is the name and part of it is the number of stores they continue to open around the world. Everyone around here goes to Starbucks for coffee. Why? Because you can't throw a rock in any direction without hitting one! Even though there are smaller local businesses with better tasting coffee people love the Starbucks appeal. In America...even though Honda and Toyota have a better reputation for their cars you find people who are die hard Ford or Chevy lovers.

Understand my point. Its the name, the number of businesses,
the presence, and all of that creates a familiar appeal or comfort zone. The average JOE doesnt associate Microsoft with viruses, crashes, spyware, cost, etc. They associate MS with something they are familiar with and puts them at ease: WIndows XP, Microsoft Office, Gaming, a plethora of programs to chose from...etc. So in that regards MS will continue to make money and as long as you're making profits your business will thrive and you'll continue to develope new ways to stay in the game and/or on top of the game.

Remember if it wasnt for MS and the rise of Windoze alot of people wouldnt be computing today, including many people on this forum.