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Why Linux is nowhere, part 1
Posted 01-19-2009 at 01:25 PM by AGer
Desktop Linux is nowhere in terms of the adoption rate. Just look at the w3schools statistics. Depending on how you look at it, Linux will either reach the psychologically important 5% level in 2 years or there is no adoption growth at all.
According to Distrowatch, Ubuntu is what most people are interested in. We know the new versions of Ubuntu are released months 4 at 10. The w3school data, accurate to 0.1%, do not show any peaks at these months. That is, a new Ubuntu release fails to convert even 1 person out of a thousand.
The Distrowatch usage itself, which is a bit hard to estimate because there is no readily available total, looks flat.
If I understand media reports correctly, the Linux share in the netbook market dropped from 100% to 30% in a year. My best guess is that Linux is just the way to negotiate a heavily discounted WindowsXP.
Remember Vista? It was expected to be good for Linux. Seeing Vista, people should run for Linux. That never happened, but I guess Vista was good for Linux because obviously seeing Vista people looked for alternatives. After Vista Linux cannot claim people do not use it because they do not know about it, and that is good.
So, the desktop Linux adoption is not only nowhere, it is not going anywhere as well. Please note the IS here, it is the key word.
This is the answer to the quoted question. Some comments and more wows are in part 2.
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